Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...AND GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 440 PM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INITIATE ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE SC
AND SOUTHERN NC FOOTHILLS...THEN EXPANDING SOUTH IN THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM THE MTN/FILLS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE NEW CELLS. PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS ORIENTED GENERALLY NORTH/SOUTH...AND SBCAPE
WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TOWARD THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE MID 50S. THEREFORE...POPS WILL TAPER OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE NC PIEDMONT.

THUS FAR...SOME ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
WITH A FEW PERSISTENT DISCRETE CELLS...AND IT APPEARS THIS WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASING MICROBURST
THREAT IN THE HIGHER CAPE AND DCAPE AIR ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY.

AS OF 230 PM EDT...FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU OF TN SEWD INTO THE UPSTATE...MAINLY DISCERNIBLE IN SFC
DEWPOINTS BEING AROUND 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON THE WARM SIDE. IT APPEARS
THE WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND NOW ENTERING THE
AREA HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF
DOWNSLOPING...AS SOME CELLS HAVE FIRED OVER THE LAST 90 MIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000 J/KG OR MORE OF SBCAPE TO ITS
SW...THOUGH WITH FAIRLY WEAK DEEP SHEAR. PROFILES CONTINUE TO LOOK
RATHER DRY AND DCAPE IS TOO MUCH TO IGNORE...600-800 J/KG. A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL.

ONE QUESTION THAT LINGERS IS HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE
NRN BLUE RIDGE. A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DEVELOP
CELLS THERE WHICH SURVIVE FOR SOME DISTANCE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT...WHICH OTHERWISE LOOKS TO STAY RATHER STABLE. A SCHC POP
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THRU EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE NC ZONES FOR
THIS REASON.

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST TONIGHT STILL WILL BE THE FRONTAL ZONE
STRADDLING THE CWFA WITH WEAK ADDITIONAL FORCING CONTINUING TO COME
FROM WEAKLY PERTURBED NW UPPER FLOW. OVERALL TRENDS INTO TONIGHT HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...THOUGH THE ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE THREAT NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH THE LAPSE RATES AT THE HEIGHT OF THE BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT BECOMING RATHER POOR.  HOWEVER I FEEL COMFORTABLE KEEPING A SCHC
POP OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UPGLIDE AND DECENT SATURATION ALOFT.

INTO MONDAY...UPGLIDE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT A
BIT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH AND IT
APPEARS MINIMAL DISTURBANCE TO THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER
OUR AREA. FOR THESE REASONS IT APPEARS BEST TO EXPECT A DIURNAL POP
TREND...WHICH IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FEATURE THE BLUE
RIDGE...THOUGH THE WHOLE FA LOOKS TO BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR LOW
POPS TO BE MENTIONED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM WITH A WRN
DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST...BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN THOUGH
WED. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE W/LY BL FLOW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE TROF TUE...WITH TSTMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY. THUS
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJ UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE ERN ZONES. STILL LOOKS
GOOD FOR THE NC MTN SPINE COUNTIES DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION IN
MECH LIFT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SKINNY LOW END SBCAPE BOTH DAYS IN A
HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MODEL PLAN VIEWS SHOW
MODERATE CAPE BOTH AFTERNOONS. IMAGINE THE ACTUAL INSTABILITY WILL
BE VARYING ACROSS THE CWFA WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION DUE TO HIGH TEMPS AND TD/S.
SO...WILL ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE SHOWERY ACTIVITY MON NIGHT...BUT A NEBULOUS DEEP
LAYERED FLOW TUE NIGHT WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL. BUMPED MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE TREND TOWARD HIGHER
LLVL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY...THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS 00Z THURSDAY
WITH THE A PASSING SHORTWAVE TO OUR NE CREATING MINOR HEIGHT FALLS
OVER OUR REGION WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS STARTS TO OPEN
AND WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER NEW
MEXICO TO THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL BROADEN EXPANDING EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES WEST TO EAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
TIMING OF WHEN THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES WILL BE CRITICAL TO
CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER OUR REGION. IF IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY THEN MOST CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON. IF THE FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY AND NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO BUILD THE STORMS WITH
CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 OVER MUCH OF SC. SEEMS AREAS NORTH OF CLT
SHOULD BE IN MORE STABLE AIR WITH A NE TO E FLOW AND CAPES 1000 OR
LESS BY LATE PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE GFS FOR LATE
THURSDAY ARE 1.5 MTNS TO 1.8 PIEDMONT WILL AID IN HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES.

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE NE
STATES...850MB WIND FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD MOVE FROM HUDSON BAY EARLY FRIDAY TO
OTTAWA EARLY SATURDAY TO NEAR NEW YORK CITY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
COOLER MORE STABLE AIR IS MOST EVIDENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE AND
SOMEWHAT LESS EXTENT THE CONS. THE AXIS OF THE 500MB RIDGE WILL
REACH OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL WIND AT THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. POPS WILL OF COURSE LOWER
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALBEIT WITH WARM UPGLIDE OCCURRING
ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN MIDLEVEL CU DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO THAT
FROM CAPPED SFC BASED CONVECTION. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY FOR ACTIVITY THAT WOULD DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD THE FIELD. HOWEVER THIS IS UNCERTAIN TO
OCCUR AND CELLS WON/T NECESSARILY MAKE A DIRECT HIT. SO NO MENTION
MADE IN TAF. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH THE
UPGLIDE CONTINUING THOUGH NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN S TO SW AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
ALSO...SOME GUID HINTS AT LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT
WITH HIGHER CLOUD DECKS THIS IS UNLIKELY TO FORM ON ITS OWN...EXCEPT
SOME STRATUS COULD ADVECT IN FROM AREAS TO THE SOUTH WHICH GET RAIN
TODAY. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE I WILL OMIT THIS FROM THE TAF.

ELSEWHERE...BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE ARE SW OF SFC
BOUNDARY ESSENTIALLY ALONG I-26 CORRIDOR. THUS TEMPOS FOR TSRA ARE
INCLUDED THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY. HOWEVER THE NRN
MTNS/FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MEAN FLOW WOULD TAKE THESE NEAR KHKY SO IT IS NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE WOODS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT
WITH CU/STRATOCU PERSISTING IN MOIST UPGLIDE OVER THE BOUNDARY. FOG
AND LOW STRATUS MIGHT OCCUR WHERE +SHRA OCCUR THIS AFTN AND IN
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW THIS COULD SPREAD NWD.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WX WITH SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
DAILY THRU THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK...AS A STALLED FRONT LINGERS IN THE
AREA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   73%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   73%     HIGH  97%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ007>009-013-
014-260900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
457 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT...FOOTHILLS...
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>006-
010>012-019-260900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
457 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. A COUPLE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON...PRODUCING BRIEF BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS
LARGE AS QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

SCZ007-012-252215-
LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-
529 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 528 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FOUNTAIN INN...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LAURENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GRAY COURT...
  ENOREE...

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3460 8223 3465 8221 3475 8216 3476 8215
      3471 8191 3450 8203

CDG

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