Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

681 
WWUS52 KGSP 220436
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NCC011-121-199-220500-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-140522T0500Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
1236 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
YANCEY...MITCHELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1235 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BLOWING ROCK TO 5 MILES EAST OF BUSICK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 65
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3607 8176 3599 8188
      3600 8190 3585 8207 3580 8223 3603 8230
      3612 8230 3617 8220 3615 8215 3611 8212
      3612 8207 3613 8203 3628 8193 3629 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 306DEG 56KT 3609 8167 3579 8208

$$
JOH

629 
WWUS52 KGSP 220457
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

NCC011-121-199-220507-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-140522T0500Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-
1257 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN YANCEY...MITCHELL AND
AVERY COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3607 8176 3599 8188
      3600 8190 3585 8207 3580 8223 3603 8230
      3612 8230 3617 8220 3615 8215 3611 8212
      3612 8207 3613 8203 3628 8193 3629 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 0457Z 306DEG 56KT 3589 8135 3560 8176

$$
JOH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1113 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF SHORE SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...INCREASED POPS TO LOW END LIKELY
LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING MCS OUT OF KY.  THIS MCS IS MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS SHOWED SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN THE LAST FEW RADAR
VOLUME SCANS.  THAT SAID...THOUGHT AN INCREASE IN POPS WAS
WARRANTED.  OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 230 PM...ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW SAGGED INTO NRN
AL/GA AND PAST THE BLUE RIDGE IN NC/SC...WHILE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TROUGH TO ITS NE. THE BOUNDARY IS STILL
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST...AND CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CU AND OCNL LIGHT RADAR RETURNS. ATTM THERE
APPEARS LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIP FROM THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE HIGH
BASES AND LACK OF CONGESTION. GFS DOES FEATURE AN AREA OF LIGHT QPF
NW OF CHARLOTTE LATER THIS AFTN...AND A PROG SOUNDING FROM KHKY SHOWS
SOME DECENT SBCAPE AT 21Z. I MAINTAINED SCHC POPS IN THE NW PIEDMONT
AND FOOTHILLS. ALSO...IT STILL APPEARS THE NRN MTNS COULD SEE SOME
ACTION TONIGHT IF NOTHING DEVELOPS DIURNALLY THIS AFTN. NEW 12Z 4KM
SPC WRF FOLLOWS EARLIER RUNS...AND DEVELOPS MIDWEST MCS ABOUT
SUNSET...WHICH DIVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY ABOUT 06Z. HOWEVER
IT FINISHES IT OFF PRETTY RAPIDLY ONCE IT GETS THERE. LOW POPS WILL
BE CARRIED OVERNIGHT IN THE MTNS...MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY PUSHING IN. LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. BRISK WINDS WILL
LIKELY AFFECT MTN RIDGES...WHICH GIVEN THE STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
PARTIAL CLOUD COVER LIMITING DECOUPLING...SHOULD SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 30 MPH.

THURSDAY...BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND SEWD ACRS THE TENN VALLEY...NE GA AND
INTO SC. UPPER HEIGHT FIELDS CONTINUE TO FEATURE RIDGE OVER THE GULF
STATES...BUT FLOW DOES STRENGTHEN ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGIONS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND S/W
DIGGING THRU ONTARIO. THE BASIC RESULT OF THIS IS THAT DEEP SHEAR
BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
NOT GREAT...AND MANY PROG SOUNDINGS EXAMINED FROM AROUND THE AREA
REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED THRU PEAK HEATING. VARIOUS WEAK VORT MAXIMA ARE
SHOWN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AND ENTER THE CWFA...POSSIBLY AIDING LIFT
BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY AFFECTING THE DEGREE OF CAPPING. SPC DAY
2 OTLK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SMALL PORTION OF THE MTNS IN A SLIGHT
RISK AREA EVIDENTLY DUE TO THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...OR POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED STMS
OVER EAST TN MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL BE 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...ACROSS AT LEAST
PART OF THE FCST AREA...COURTESY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THE
IMMEDIATE (AND ONGOING) CONCERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM ON THE BOUNDARY IN
MODERATE TO HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE TN VALLEY...AND THEN
REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN. A CHANCE POP WILL BE KEPT
ON THE TN BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CASE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD HAVE AN EASY TIME
MAKING OVER THE MTNS...AS THE AIR MASS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS
SHOULD HAVE CONSIDERABLY LESS BUOYANCY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DROP
DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF
DEEPENS ON THE EAST COAST...AND WILL BRING A GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. NE GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
PART OF THE UPSTATE STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE SETS UP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER LATE IN THE
DAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS KEPT ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA
THOUGH...BECAUSE OF LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE DURING PEAK HEATING. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SINK
FARTHER SOUTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE MODELS LACK SURFACE
BASED CAPE ON SATURDAY AND FCST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WELL CAPPED...
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF AS MUCH AS
TWO CATEGORIES AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WED...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS 00Z SUNDAY...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS
GA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY OVER THE UPPER
SAVANNAH VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN MTNS. THIS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT...STRONGER AND EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BECOMING SW ON MONDAY AND FROM THE WEST
MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PASSING OUR REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY TUESDAY. A CLOSED TO SEMI-CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL BE CROSSING THE LOWER TO MID
MS VALLEY BY EARLY WED AND REACH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHANCES OF CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON WED. LIGHT WIND FROM THE 700MB LEVEL TO
THE SURFACE OF 15KTS OR LESS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. STRONGER WIND THROUGH THIS LOW TO MID LAYER ON WED ALONG
WITH HIGHER CAPE VALUES BRINGS HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENCES BY LATE WED
WITH EC MOVING THE RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE GFS MASHES THE
RIDGE WITH A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OUR OF THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
BEING NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES.  HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE LOWERING TO THE MIDLEVELS AFTER DAYBREAK.  AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF WILL EJECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPS
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC.  CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL VEER WEST NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE HIGHLIGHTED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8KTS AROUND
16Z.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THEREFORE ALSO INCLUDED
MENTION OF FAIR WX LOW VFR CU.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH CURRENT GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS REDUCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS LEADING TO PREVAILING FLOW IN
THE 5-8KTS RANGE VEERING WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES.  INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE PROFILE ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO MID/HIGH LEVEL CIGS AT KAVL OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ALL OTHER SITES CARRY SKC OR JUST A FEW CIRRUS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
YET AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS...AND COMBINES WITH WEAK LEE TROFFING TO PROMOTE GUSTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KHKY. SKY COVER WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE ATM BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE DUE TO HEATING...LEADING TO EXPANSION
OF A FAIR WX LOW VFR CU FIELD ACROSS ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSRA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z        21-03Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE ACROSS NE GA TODAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
ONCE AGAIN DRY TO CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER LEVELS. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG
FIRE WEATHER...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

NCZ033-048>053-230015-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
806 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LOW POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS OVERNIGHT IF CURRENT ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SURVIVES AND ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
806 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1142 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-505-220430-
AVERY-BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
1142 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL...
YANCEY...MITCHELL...MADISON...HAYWOOD...NORTHERN BUNCOMBE AND AVERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES NORTH OF
ELIZABETHTON TO PARROTTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WATERVILLE...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  WAYNESVILLE...
  CANTON...
  LEICESTER...
  UNC ASHEVILLE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAT...LON 3628 8189 3621 8190 3607 8175 3598 8187
      3600 8190 3594 8193 3573 8220 3543 8306
      3577 8314 3578 8299 3594 8290 3593 8281
      3599 8279 3607 8264 3597 8260 3596 8256
      3610 8239 3617 8222 3611 8208 3629 8190

JOH