Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 12, 2014Avery County, Burke County, Caldwell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 12, 2014, 4:34 PM EDT for Avery County, Burke County, Caldwell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 56 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2014, 4:34 PM EDT (20:34 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2014, 5:30 PM EDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 12, 4:40 PM EDTHAIL 0.753 Se Newland, NCDIME SIZED HAIL JUST WEST OF LINVILLE. THERE WAS A WIND GUST BUT LOCATION IS SHELTERED AND NOT PRONE TO HIGH WIND.
May 12, 4:45 PM EDTHAIL 0.54 Sse Newland, NCLINVILLE LAND HARBOR HAD LOTS OF MARBLE SIZED HAIL.
May 12, 4:45 PM EDTHAIL 0.754 Se Newland, NCLOTS OF HAIL REPORTED ALL ACROSS AVERY COUNTY WITH THE STORMS BUT LARGEST REPORTED HAIL WAS LESS THAN QUARTER SIZED. EVEN AN HOUR AFTER THE STORM...PUDDLES OF PEA SIZED HAIL REMAINED ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAND HARBORS LAKE. NO REPORTS OF ANY WIND PRO

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 21 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-248 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1589 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

815 
WUUS52 KGSP 122034
SVRGSP
NCC011-023-027-122130-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0036.140512T2034Z-140512T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  LINVILLE...OR NEAR NEWLAND...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONAS RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3620 8188 3619 8184 3612 8181 3613 8172
      3611 8169 3590 8173 3591 8191 3596 8194
      3591 8197 3592 8200 3595 8204 3610 8203
      3622 8191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 013DEG 6KT 3605 8187

$$

NED
4 follow-up statements
942 
WWUS52 KGSP 122046
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCC011-023-027-122130-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140512T2130Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
446 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 443 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LINVILLE...OR NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONAS RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8181 3613 8172 3611 8169 3590 8173
      3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196 3592 8196
      3592 8200 3595 8204 3611 8203 3619 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 013DEG 6KT 3603 8188

$$

NED
689 
WWUS52 KGSP 122104
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCC011-023-027-122130-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140512T2130Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
504 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
JONAS RIDGE...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONAS RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3616 8183 3612 8181 3607 8170 3590 8173
      3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196 3592 8196
      3593 8201 3595 8204 3611 8203 3617 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 013DEG 6KT 3600 8185

$$

NED
222 
WWUS52 KGSP 122117
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
517 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCC011-023-027-122130-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140512T2130Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
517 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
JONAS RIDGE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  JONAS RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8195 3612 8185 3610 8177 3607 8170
      3590 8173 3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196
      3592 8196 3593 8201 3595 8204 3611 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 013DEG 6KT 3598 8186

$$

NED
349 
WWUS52 KGSP 122128
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCC011-023-027-122137-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-140512T2130Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
528 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND SOUTHERN AVERY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530
PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

AT 440 PM...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL 3 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF NEWLAND...NC.

LAT...LON 3614 8195 3612 8185 3610 8177 3607 8170
      3590 8173 3591 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196
      3592 8196 3593 8201 3595 8204 3611 8203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 013DEG 6KT 3597 8186

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 12, 4:26 PM EDT, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 12, 4:26 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
426 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NC MTNS WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE. COVERAGE COULD
BECOME SCT OVER THE WRN UPSTATE WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY EXISTS.
HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED OR EVEN NO CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE ERN
UPSTATE AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HAVE UPDATED POP FOR
THESE TRENDS AND THE REST OF THE FIELDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NC MTNS AS WELL
AS ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE SPC REGIONAL
MESOANALYSIS WINDOW SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2500 J/KG OVER
THIS AREA. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE MODIFIED 12 UTC GSO SOUNDING.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST THE CU FIELD IS MUCH WEAKER. THIS IS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE DRIER 12 UTC GSO SOUNDING. SCT TO ISOLATED
TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUBBLE IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL A
LITTLE PAST SUNSET. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT THE
SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AN A FEW MICROBURSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THERE
WILL BE A VERY LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT
WITH SUCH LIGHT SHEAR I DON/T THINK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE LONG
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NOT MUCH CHANCE ON TUESDAY. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DRY THE
BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS OUT A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY AS WE CONTINUE TO
BE UNDER SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH.
SCT TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NC MTNS...AND THE POP
DISTRIBUTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 30-40 POPS OVER THE NC
MTNS...TRAILING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF MIDDAY MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AN OCCLUDING SFC LOW OVER
NRN ONTARIO WILL HAVE PULLED AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT THRU THE
MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL STALL IN THE OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING MOST OF
THE ERN US UNDER WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SOME
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE QPF FROM
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TUE NIGHT. IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME AND
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THOUGH REMAINING ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND MINOR.

DEEP SHEAR IS STILL QUITE WEAK TUE NIGHT AND WITH THE SMALL MUCAPE
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN.
THIS IS ALSO TRUE WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE A DAY OF SOMEWHAT
TYPICAL WARM SEASON CONVECTION. SHEAR INCREASES GRADUALLY LATE IN THE
DAY...MORESO WED NIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE
AND IS REPLACED BY A SHARP TROUGH. FLOW THROUGHOUT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS INCREASES THRU THURSDAY...BRINGING 0-6KM SHEAR TO 40 KT OR
MORE BY THU AFTN WHEN AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG INTO THE PIEDMONT
EVEN THU MORNING...WITH MAINLY ATLANTIC FETCH BRINGING PWATS WELL
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN IS THUS AN EQUALLY SIGNIFICANT CONCERN
ON THU BUT COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST OVERLAP OF
THE SEVERE INGREDIENTS DOES OCCUR OVER THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTN.
FROPA DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL IT BLOWS THRU.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT ON MONDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH ITS AXIS CROSSING THE REGION ON
SAT. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL THEN DROP DOWN ON THE BASIS OF
THE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. H5 HEIGHTS WILL THEN RISE
BY MONDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AS A COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH BRINGING PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH DAY 7. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNALLY DRIVEN BUOYANCY TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
SAT/SUN. HENCE...HAVE INHERITED SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FAVORING IN THE MTNS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON MON AND MON
NIGHT LOOK DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH BETTER CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT. WITH LOWERING THICKNESSES AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 3-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SO FOR THE CU FIELD OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT HAS BEEN
QUITE WEAK. THIS MAKES SENSE BASED ON THE LOW DEWPOINTS SEEN ON THE
12 UTC GSO SOUNDING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHRA OR A TSTM WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD IN 3 OR 4 HOURS...BUT CHANCES ARE MUCH
TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...OVER THE NC MTNS SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR TO
THE WEST OF KAVL. AS THE MEAN FLOW IS OUT OF THE SSW...THESE SHOWERS
AND EVENTUAL TSTMS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE AIRFIELD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. CONSIDERING THEIR PROXIMITY...I ADDED A TEMPO PERIOD
FOR A TSTM. A FEW SHRA/TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE UPSTATE
WHERE THERE IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND A FAIRLY HEALTHY CU FIELD.
ADDED VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS AND FOG AROUND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE ONLY PLACE WHERE
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANYTHING WAS AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY...BUT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY DRY. ON THURSDAY A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD A
BETTER CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR AGAIN FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
Hazardous weather outlook, May 12, 4:31 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
431 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-132030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
431 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION TO
PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOME OF THE REGION IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 12, 2:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
215 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCZ064-065-121900-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
215 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CRUSO...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3544 8261 3536 8256 3531 8278 3535 8281
      3539 8278 3541 8275 3543 8274 3546 8270
      3546 8267

08
Special weather statement, May 12, 3:08 PM EDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCZ033-501-122000-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
308 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND
CENTRAL AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEVEN DEVILS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

SEVEN DEVILS...BANNER ELK AND LINVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3620 8188 3620 8185 3616 8182 3612 8181
      3613 8155 3610 8151 3602 8170 3602 8191
      3620 8195 3621 8190

NED
Special weather statement, May 12, 3:54 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCZ049-505-122030-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-YANCEY-
354 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUSICK...OR 10 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BUSICK...

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

BUSICK...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3571 8203 3569 8204 3565 8222 3575 8230
      3583 8210

NED
Special weather statement, May 12, 4:03 PM EDT, 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NCZ033-501-122045-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
403 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND AVERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINVILLE...OR NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTH AT
5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

LINVILLE AND NEWLAND...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES.
CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM
ARRIVES.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3620 8188 3620 8185 3619 8184
      3616 8182 3612 8181 3612 8167 3599 8178
      3603 8202 3628 8190

NED

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 2:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson45 min
May 12, 3:08 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery52 min
May 12, 3:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMcDowell36 min
May 12, 4:03 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery42 min
May 12, 5:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHaywood45 min
May 12, 5:50 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMitchell25 min
May 12, 6:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPJackson34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.