Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1124 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LINGER FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST SATURDAY
AND BRING SOME MINOR RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN NC MTNS ATTM...THUS POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY IN
THE AREAS NORTH OF I-26 ALONG THE TENN BORDER. THE PREVIOUS REMNANT
CONVECTIVE AREA DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST OF THE MTNS. HOWEVER...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS HEATING STRONGLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGH TERRAIN.
REGIONAL RAOBS PAINTED A RATHER STARK CONTRAST FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...ESP AT KFFC...WHERE A LAYER OF NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES WERE OBSERVED BETWEEN H8 AND H6. AS A RESULT...THE AIRMASS IS
RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING EAST OF THE MTNS...WITH CAPE ALREADY EXCEEDING
1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AS OF 14Z. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
CAPE WILL INCREASE TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF FANNING OUT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST TENN...AND WITH CAPE INCREASING STRONGLY
DOWNSTREAM...IT SEEMS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES EAST OF THE
MTNS BY EARLY AFTERNOON (THE LATEST HRRR IS SUGGESTING A SIMILAR
SCENARIO). AS SUCH...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY 10-20 PERCENT IN
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 40 POPS NOW BEING FEATURED AS FAR
SOUTHEAST AS THE I-85 CORRIDOR.

POPS HAVE ALSO BEE INCREASED FOR THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF CAPE >
3000 IS ALREADY BEING ANALYZED ACROSS MIDDLE TENN INTO SE KENTUCKY.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS A CORRIDOR OF 20-30KTS OF LOW LEVEL
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHWEST NC. A
CONSENSUS OF MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ORGANIZED MCS
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOW THIS PLAYS OUT
FOR OUR AREA MAY DEPEND LARGELY UPON THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...BUT IT SEEMS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WOULD
BE ACROSS (ROUGHLY) THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE
POPS WERE INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT THIS EVENING. LOWERING FREEZING
LEVELS AND LARGE DCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED
DOWNBURST RISK WITH ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION.

1030 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...WITH A
DECREASE EARLY ON. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY...ALSO RESULTING IN A DECREASE. AREAS OF FOG WERE REDUCED
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

AT 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT....WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY FORM
THE NE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO
OUR AREA...BUT ITS GENERAL PROXIMITY MAY FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. EVEN IF THE FRONT REMAINS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...OUR AREA WILL BE IN A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND
PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND STEERING FLOW GREAT ENOUGH TO KEEP
CELLS MOVING...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ROBUST
CAPE WILL BE PRESENT...AND DRY AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...AND IF ANY
MCS ROUNDING THE CORNER OF THE RIDGE REACHES OUR AREA...IT MAY WELL
SURVIVE. STEERING FLOW AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL IN A
MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACRS THE
LWR-MID MS VALLEY...EXTENDING EAST ACRS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THRU
THE SHORT TERM. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A RING OF FIRE
PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL RIDE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE...FROM THE
UPR MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES...TO THE MID ATLANTIC. IT LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...THE NRN ZONES (GENERALLY I-40 CORRIDOR AND NORTH)...MAY
GET BRUSHED BY A POSSIBLE MCS AT SOME POINT. NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE POPS. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION...AS STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
ATOP THE REGION. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO I BUMPED UP TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY...EVEN MORE IN THE NW
NC PIEDMONT...WHERE WE PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WOULD PUSH IN BY FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH
UPR 80S IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND MID-UPR 90S ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY ATOP THE CWFA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...WHILE A LARGE TROF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED
THE TIMING OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY A FULL DAY...THEY
STILL SHOW IT COMING THRU...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED
CHC FOR PRECIP. BOTH THE 00Z/20 GFS AND ECMWF SHOW WEDGE-LIKE
CONFIGURATION FOR SUNDAY...WITH A 1021-1023 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...NOSING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG THE EAST COAST.
LIGHT NELY LLVL FLOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SHUD KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO
NORMAL...ESP SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD...KEEPING
COOLER LLVL THICKNESSES ACRS THE REGION...AND CONTINUED LIGHT ELY
LLVL FLOW. I WILL FCST TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL...EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT...WITH CONTINUE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOG HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP...AND THE DEW POINT DEPRESSION
REMAINS THREE DEGREES. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT NE
THIS MORNING...THEN BACK TO SW BY AFTERNOON...BEFORE VEERING TO WNW
THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION. LOW
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH COVERAGE
FOR A LOW VFR CIG. GUIDANCE DID NOT FAVOR FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING...
BUT IF IT RAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...FOG WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.

ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN A FEW NON
TAF SITES THAT RECEIVED BETTER RAINFALL YESTERDAY...AND THE LITTLE
TN RIVER VALLEY. CALM FOOTHILL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY COME UP FROM THE N
OR W THIS MORNING...BEFORE BACKING TO SW. KAVL WINDS WILL REMAIN
CHANNELED FROM THE NW. CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ONLY GREAT ENOUGH FOR
A MENTION AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE FAVORED VERY LOW VSBY IN
FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...BUT BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE...
ONLY MVFR VSBY WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR REMNANT ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   62%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/JDL
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-210930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
518 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

NCZ049-505-506-201700-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-YANCEY-
1222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN
YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

AT 1220 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BUSICK...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARION...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JAMES...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3590 8215 3582 8214 3585 8209 3585 8204
      3571 8187 3570 8223 3586 8240

CSH