Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

August 18, 2014Davie County, Iredell County, Rowan County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2014, 4:38 PM EDT for Davie County, Iredell County, Rowan County, North Carolina. It was in force for 67 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2014, 4:38 PM EDT (20:38 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2014, 5:45 PM EDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Davie County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Rowan County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 18, 4:45 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 S Farmington, NCTREE DOWN IN ROADWAY ON FARMINGTON ROAD
Aug 18, 5:22 PM EDTHAIL 0.88Woodleaf, NCSOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED HAIL UP NICKEL SIZE.
Aug 18, 5:25 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 W Cooleemee, NCA POWER LINE DOWN ON HART ROAD NEAR NEEDMORE ROAD.
Aug 18, 5:36 PM EDTTSTM WND DMGFarmington, NCSOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED A LARGE OAK TREE UPROOTED.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 429 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 93 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
429 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1211 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
124 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

356 
WUUS52 KGSP 182038
SVRGSP
NCC059-097-159-182145-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0263.140818T2038Z-140818T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DAVIE COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN ROWAN COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA RUN TO 7 MILES NORTH OF
  STATESVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BERMUDA RUN.
  CLEVELAND AND MOCKSVILLE.
  ADVANCE.
  COOLEEMEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047 3579 8047
      3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8075 3578 8103
      3594 8094 3606 8046 3601 8041 3599 8041
      3596 8037 3589 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 278DEG 19KT 3601 8043 3588 8084

$$

NED
3 follow-up statements
471 
WWUS52 KGSP 182059
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCC059-097-159-182145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-140818T2145Z/
DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-ROWAN NC-
459 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN...EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ADVANCE TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. AT 445 PM...A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN 
ON FARMINGTON ROAD...BLOCKING TRAFFIC ONE MILE SOUTH OF FARMINGTON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CLEVELAND.
  COOLEEMEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. TURN OFF ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047 3579 8047
      3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8075 3582 8095
      3600 8071 3606 8046 3601 8041 3599 8041
      3596 8037 3589 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 278DEG 19KT 3594 8033 3581 8074

$$

NED
115 
WWUS52 KGSP 182115
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCC059-097-159-182145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-140818T2145Z/
DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-ROWAN NC-
515 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN...EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MOCKSVILLE TO STATESVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ADVANCE.
  COOLEEMEE.
  CLEVELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. TURN OFF ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047 3579 8047
      3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8075 3582 8095
      3594 8079 3598 8070 3602 8049 3601 8041
      3599 8041 3596 8037 3589 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 278DEG 19KT 3586 8046 3577 8087

$$

NED
902 
WWUS52 KGSP 182131
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCC059-097-159-182145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-140818T2145Z/
DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-ROWAN NC-
531 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN...EAST CENTRAL IREDELL AND SOUTHERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COOLEEMEE...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF MOCKSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL IREDELL...NORTHWESTERN ROWAN AND SOUTHERN DAVIE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. TURN OFF ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3582 8047 3579 8047
      3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8075 3581 8093
      3591 8078 3594 8068 3596 8049 3597 8044
      3597 8040 3596 8037 3589 8036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 278DEG 19KT 3577 8054

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 2:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 2:46 PM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LINGER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER CLOUDY AND STABLE AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THIS NORTHWEST
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVING BEEN OVERWORKED BY MORNING
CONVECTION AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
SURGED INTO THE SC LOWER PIEDMONT/MIDLANDS...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE...BUT
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL APPALACHIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PASSING TO
OUR NORTH. THE UPSHOT IS...OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS...THERE/S NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
1830Z. CONSIDERING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL/RADAR TRENDS...THIS MAY NOT
CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...WE SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AS THE SHORT WAVE
SHIFTS TOWARD CENTRAL VA/NC. NEVERTHELESS...CAPE IS EXCEEDING 2000
J/KG (PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...SO STILL EXPECTING SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS ALA/MISS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY APPROACH OUR WESTERN
ZONES BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL...A GRADUAL UPTICK TO 30-50 POPS
(WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST) WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

A LULL IS EXPECTED IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM GA/AL. DESPITE THE RATHER POTENT
APPEARANCE OF THIS WAVE...THE MODELS ARE NOT EXACTLY ROBUST WITH
THEIR QPF RESPONSE IN OUR AREA. CERTAINLY THE TIMING REFLECTS AN
ABSENCE OF ROBUST INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO INTERACT. MEANWHILE...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CONSENSUS THAT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE HIGHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA. NEVERTHELESS...POPS WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

BY TUE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST OF THE
AREA...LIKELY PLACING THE AREA WITHIN WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE
THAT COULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TUE MORNING...SO WE WILL ESSENTIALLY FEATURE
TOKEN 30/40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...AN ENDLESS PARADE OF S/W'S WILL BE IMPACTING
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS CYCLE. THE FIRST WILL BE EXITING OUR
REGION TUESDAY. I LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN FA OF NC
DURING THE EARLY EVENING... AND ALSO ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NC MOUNTAINS (ALSO IN THE EVENING )...WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
PERSISTS.

MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND DEGREE OF NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND NE GA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
EVOLUTION...COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL SET UP A NWLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
ERN CONUS...AND ALMOST A RING OF FIRE (ROF) LOOK. ALTHOUGH OUR SHORT
TERM SUITE OF GUIDE VARY IN DETAIL...THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY / OR BIG
PICTURE / SEEM TO COINCIDE. AS A RESULT THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO RIDE THE NWLY FLOW DOWN INTO/TOWARD OUR
REGION. IT APPEARS THE FIRST SUCH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ENERGY IN THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY...REACHING OUR NC
MOUNTAINS IN THE WEE HOURS WEDNESDAY. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT
ACTION WOULD SPREAD E-SE...POTENTIALLY REACHING PARTS OF NE GA AND
UPSTATE OF SC. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAT CAPE (ESPECIALLY
WHERE LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE) COULD PROVE FOR AN INTERESTING
WEATHER DAY.

YET ANOTHER S/W WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. FLOW ALOFT SUBTLY SHIFTS
MORE NWLY...THEREFORE I HAVE BROUGHT POPS A BIT DEEPER (SOUTHWARD)
IN OUR CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH POPS WITH EACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED EPISODES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THE CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED. WE ARE NEAR GUIDE POPS OVERALL...OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST FRINGES. ONCE WE GET A
BETTER HANDLE IF/WHERE THESE CLUSTERS WILL FOCUS...POPS CAN BE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

ON THE TEMPERATURE END OF THE SPECTRUM...POTENTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SUGGEST LOWERING GUIDE. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE IS SOLIDLY ON THE RISE AND WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURE VALUES REACHING NEAR MAXES...WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
EVEN OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PICKS UP AT 00Z ON FRIDAY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WHILE
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS LARGELY IN
PLACE TO OUR WEST WHILE THE UPPER TROF BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND
MORPHS INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FLATTENING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT IT WONT BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.

AT THE SFC...OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE AND A SERIES OF WEAK MESO LOWS THAT TRY TO SPIN UP TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE LEANING TOWARDS A MORE ROBUST WEDGE DEVELOPING ON SAT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUN. THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS FROM THE COMBINATION OF A
STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND A LOW SPINNING UP AS IT
MOVES OFF THE NC COAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR STRONGER NELY LOW LVL FLOW
OVER THE FCST REGION AS THE HIGH IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND
THE LOW REMAINS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THRU NEW DAY 7. THE WEDGE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MANY TIMES THESE FEATURES LINGER LONGER THAN THE
MODELS DEPICT. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE POP FCST WITH CHANCE COVERAGE INCREASED ON BOTH SAT AND SUN
AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND THE WEDGE WEAKENS. TEMPS START OUT ABOUT A CATEGORY
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRI AND STEADILY COOL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VALUES ENDING RIGHT AROUND CLIMO IF NOT JUST BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS
DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. HOWEVER...IT/S
BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHANCES ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE A TEMPO FOR -SHRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THERE
SHOULD BE A GENERAL LULL IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE EVENING...WITH
CHANCES RETURNING BY MID-MORNING TUE...AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG WITH W/SW WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...SCT CONVECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
OVER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY
ADVERTISE VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING. CHANCES MAY
INCREASE JUST AFTER 00Z...AS SCT CONVECTION APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...BUT THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ATTM. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...THIS WILL BE HANDLED
IN THE TAFS WITH A RETURN OF VCSH BY DAYBREAK OR SO. OTHERWISE...
AREAS OF BR ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE NW DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 3:59 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-191000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
359 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN EPISODE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BECAUSE
BOTH MODEST INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN IN THE
WEATHER PICTURE...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO BE NOTED. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT WITH ALL THUNDERSTORMS...SO REMEMBER YOUR LIGHTNING SAFETY
RULES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

STUREY

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 18, 3:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ035-502-181945-
ALEXANDER-GREATER CALDWELL-
318 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CALDWELL AND ALEXANDER
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELLENDALE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ELLENDALE...
  TAYLORSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3600 8132 3603 8127 3604 8121 3604 8102
      3600 8100 3581 8108 3582 8114 3583 8115
      3582 8116 3587 8148 3605 8142 3605 8139

NED
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 3:51 PM EDT, 47 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ036-037-182015-
DAVIE-IREDELL-
351 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL AND NORTHERN
DAVIE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUCK SHOALS...OR 14 MILES
SOUTH OF RONDA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HARMONY...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3590 8037 3594 8099 3607 8098 3605 8049
      3607 8046 3601 8041 3599 8041 3598 8039

NED
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 3:58 PM EDT, 40 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ035-182030-
ALEXANDER-
358 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  STONY POINT...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3598 8100 3586 8104 3585 8126 3603 8123
      3604 8114 3603 8108 3605 8103

NED
Special weather statement, Aug 18, 4:16 PM EDT, 22 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

NCZ035>037-182045-
ALEXANDER-DAVIE-IREDELL-
416 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL...DAVIE AND EAST
CENTRAL ALEXANDER COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 414 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FARMINGTON TO STONY
POINT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FARMINGTON...
  BERMUDA RUN...
  MOCKSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3588 8037 3588 8041 3585 8038 3581 8047
      3582 8060 3586 8067 3585 8071 3582 8072
      3584 8114 3605 8092 3606 8079 3605 8049
      3607 8046 3601 8041 3599 8041 3596 8037

NED

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 3:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander27 min
Aug 18, 3:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie24 min
Aug 18, 3:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAlexander32 min
Aug 18, 4:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie29 min
Aug 18, 5:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln27 min
Aug 18, 5:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCatawba, Iredell, Rowan57 min
Aug 18, 6:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRowan31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.