Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
RESULTING IN WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLOW
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGINNING
STRENGTHENING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD THIS AFTN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC
ZONES. A COUPLE OF CELLS ARE NOW GROWING SOUTH OF GREENVILLE MORE OR
LESS IN LINE WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER TO THE NE. THE UPPER PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SRN TIER
OF THE CONUS...WITH SLIGHTLY DISTURBED FLOW AROUND IT...SO THERE
COULD BE YET ANOTHER RIPPLE ALOFT HELPING TO KICK OFF THE PIEDMONT
ACTIVITY. SFC ANALYSIS FEATURES A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
COAST BUT NO OBVIOUS MTN LEE CONVERGENCE. THUS THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD AS THE APPARENT WAVE MOVES ALONG.
MEANWHILE...A CLUSTER EXITING SE TENN AND MOVING INTO THE SW NC MTNS
IS GUSTING OUT. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMAINING CELLS WITH IT
MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AREA...AND IN CONTINUED NW FLOW
DOWNSLOPING WILL LIKELY IMPEDE IT ALSO. HOWEVER THE REMNANT COLD
POOL COULD SPAWN SOME NEW CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM. ON THESE
NOTES...REVISED POPS FEATURE SCT COVERAGE INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WITH ISOLD ELSEWHERE...WITH A SLOW DECLINE PAST PEAK HEATING
INTO THE EVENING. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION STILL MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
IN THE MTNS PER VERTICAL PROFILES...AND LIGHT NW FLOW. DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MTN VALLEYS AGAIN...ESP ONES THAT SEE RAIN
TODAY. LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

BY EARLY SUNDAY THE HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN SUGGESTS VERY WEAK FLOW WITH THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST
BEING A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. LAPSE RATES WEAKEN AS
THE HEIGHTS RISE...THOUGH PROFILES STILL SUPPORT UNINHIBITED SFC
BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH CAPE IS RELATIVELY LOW...UNDER 1000
J...ACRS MOST OF THE FA. GREATEST BUOYANCY LOOKS TO BE ALG AND EAST
OF I-77 WHERE SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE COAST IS
EVIDENT WITH THE TROUGH. PROFILES APPEAR FAIRLY DRY AND BOTH THE
NAM/GFS PRODUCE DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THOUGH SPC HAS OMITTED
US FROM ANY EXPLICIT MENTION SUNDAY...IT APPEARS WE WILL REMAIN AT
RISK OF SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESSER THAN
THAT ON RECENT DAYS. THIS DUE TO THE LOWER INSTABILITY AS WELL AS
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH HAS
BEEN A FACTOR OF LATE. MAX TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SATURDAY/S
READINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY ACTIVE IN TERMS OF DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES...IF NOT A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN IS TYPICAL. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS WARRANTED IN THESE
AREAS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS TYPICALLY WEAK. EXPECT AT LEAST A
HANDFUL OF PULSE SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING...AS THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BENEATH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME
ANCHORING OF CELLS ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES.

BY TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT FALLING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...WITH SOME HINTS OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS QUITE A ROBUST MODEL QPF RESPONSE...ALBEIT NOT
NOTICEABLY MORE SO THAN ON MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO QUITE
A BIT MORE STABLE/MOIST THAN ON MONDAY...WHILE IT APPEARS THE
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER BY THAT TIME. ABOVE CLIMO POPS
(40-50 PERCENT) WILL BE FEATURED AGAIN MON AFTERNOON...WITH AN
APPARENT LESSER CHANCE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...BUT PERHAPS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF WITHIN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DIGGING
DOWN OVER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROF
SLOWLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD...YET THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF ITS ENERGY
WELL TO OUR NORTH. THEY ALSO TRY TO INCREASE HEIGHTS AGAIN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND HAVE ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE BY
NEW DAY 7. THIS PATTERN LEAVES OUR AREA UNDER GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO
SWLY STEERING FLOW THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
CAROLINAS EARLY WED AND WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE CWFA. WITH
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA...WE MAY SEE MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS ON WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE
COMBINATION OF SLY MOIST FLOW...A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND
MODERATE DIURNAL BUOYANCY...I KEPT THE SOLID CHANCE OF PULSE TYPE
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EACH DAY...FAVORING THE MTN
ZONES OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH VALUES
NEAR NORMAL OR POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT TSRA WILL MOVE THRU THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTN...AND HAVE
PROVEN CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR VSBY/CIG IN HVY RA. INCLUDED A TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS BUT ONLY WENT MVFR...WITH CONFIDENCE ON IFR
TOO LOW. EVOLUTION OF STORMS MAY END UP MUCH LIKE FRIDAY WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY BEING TAPPED BY WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER
THE SRN CONUS. MAY NEED TO REVISIT OR ADD A PROB30 FOR THE EVENING
AT LATER UPDATES. REMNANT VFR CLOUDS WITH OCNL CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUID HINTS AT FOG...BUT IT IS NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY
THERMAL PROFILES. RAIN AT THE FIELD TODAY COULD INCREASE FOG CHANCES
THOUGH THAT GUIDELINE HAS NOT WORKED OUT ESPECIALLY WELL IN THIS
AIRMASS. CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT NOT AS LIKELY ON SUNDAY...WITH
WINDS VEERING INTO NE QUAD AROUND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

ELSEWHERE...TSRA ARE ALREADY AROUND KHKY AND IT STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THEIR EFFECTS TODAY...HENCE TEMPO. VCTS ELSEWHERE
GIVEN INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS FOR ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
PROPAGATING OUT OF EAST TN INTO THE SW NC MTNS AND UPSTATE SC.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. THE MTN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS/FOG DEVELOP
AGAIN EARLY SUN MRNG WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING MOIST PLUS A LIGHT
UP-VALLEY FLOW. AFTER DAYBREAK...WINDS GENERALLY VEER A BIT WITH
HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SUNDAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES.
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH
MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF RECENT
RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     LOW   53%     HIGH  98%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   79%     HIGH  95%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-220815-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
409 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-220815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
409 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NCZ037-211930-
DAVIE-
301 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR YADKINVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FARMINGTON...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3590 8052 3602 8070 3606 8069 3605 8050
      3605 8049 3607 8046 3602 8041

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

SCZ014-212000-
CHESTER-
335 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF RICHBURG...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  RICHBURG...
  FORT LAWN...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3468 8087 3465 8089 3459 8088 3457 8087
      3453 8090 3454 8099 3476 8126 3482 8119
      3482 8100 3474 8086 3469 8085

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NCZ069>072-212015-
CABARRUS-GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
339 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MECKLENBURG...EASTERN
LINCOLN...NORTHEASTERN GASTON AND NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DAVIDSON TO
LINCOLNTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DAVIDSON...
  IRON STATION...
  MCGUIRE STATION...
  HUNTERSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3532 8070 3527 8094 3550 8133 3555 8096
      3553 8094 3553 8096 3550 8096 3549 8095
      3552 8090 3551 8081 3550 8060 3549 8055

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NCZ071-072-212030-
CABARRUS-MECKLENBURG-
405 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND
CABARRUS COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DAVIDSON...OR 10 MILES WEST
OF CONCORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  I-85 AT HIGHWAY 73...
  CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...
  CONCORD...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3525 8052 3541 8089 3551 8084 3550 8056
      3546 8041

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NCZ070-212045-
GASTON-
409 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GASTON COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IRON STATION...OR 6 MILES
SOUTH OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DALLAS...
  STANLEY...
  GASTONIA...
  LOWELL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3534 8099 3528 8101 3525 8101 3518 8106
      3536 8136 3542 8132 3540 8099 3539 8097
      3538 8098 3536 8097 3537 8096 3536 8092

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
412 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

NCZ082-212045-
UNION-
412 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF MONROE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WINGATE...
  STURDIVANTS...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3488 8031 3482 8031 3481 8032 3481 8054
      3488 8066 3504 8055 3492 8030 3488 8030

HG