Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
432 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS A BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 PM...LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE MTNS WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH ISOLATED SVR
STORMS LOOKS LIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU. STILL EXPECT A MAINLY
DIURNAL TREND TO CONVECTION...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TAPERING OFF BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST GENERALLY
ON TRACK WITH UPDATES MAINLY FOR POP AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AS OF 215 PM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE BASE OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR COVERAGE IS STARTING TO BLOSSOM AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
FAIRLY ROBUST 2000 TO 3000 J/KG SBCAPE VALUES IN PLACE FROM GOOD
INSOLATION TODAY. THE BEST DEEP LAYER QG FORCING WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST INITIALLY THIS AFTN OVER SW SECTIONS...BUT
FAIRLY SOLID CHC POPS WILL INCREASINGLY BE NEEDED OVER ERN SECTIONS
THROUGH LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GET GENERATED. THE LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ARE NOW PRODUCING BETTER COVERAGE ON OUTFLOWS OVER UPSTATE SC
AND NE GEORGIA FROM THE CURRENT MTN ACTIVITY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED UPWARDS ACCORDINGLY THROUGH LATE DAY.

THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIP ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
DRYING WILL BEGIN IN THE NW TO N FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY WELL LINGER BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. ANY DEGREE OF
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT COULD
YIELD LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH SAT. DEEP LAYER DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE FROM THE NW...BUT
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BETTER SE COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL PERMIT CHC COVERAGE IN THE SRN
ESCARPMENT AREA SAT AFTN. MAXES SHOULD REACH NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.\
AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TO OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE SUPPRESSED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL VEER TO SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MECHANICAL LIFT TO GENERATE SCT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION WILL WANE
SUN NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ON MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS REMAINING SE...EXPECT A REPEAT OF SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXTENDING FARTHER EASTWARD THANKS TO
INCREASED MOISURE. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE
CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
MARK THE RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMER PATTERN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...CONTRIBUTING AN EASTERLY/WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. POPS WILL MAINLY FOLLOW A
DIURNAL PATTERN...GENERALLY FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO
THE ABOVE MENTIONED EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL MAINLY PUT A DAMPER ON
ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT LOW-END INSTABILITY/A LAYER OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE SVR
CHANCES. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING
OVER THE MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK...CREATING A PATTERN THAT COULD
FEATURE LARGE MCS DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT
PROPAGATING TOWARD THE CWA BY DAYBREAK. ANY LEFTOVER MCC/MCS THAT
DOES MAKE IT PAST THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY...KEEPING ANY TS/RA THREAT LOW-END.

REGARDING THE NEXT LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM..THE LATEST GFS IS SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF WITH A TROF CROSSING THE NRN CONUS...BUT
BOTH MODELS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM SO THAT SOONEST
POSSIBLE FROPA WOULD BE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...AN H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
LOW 90S...OR ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK FOR LATE DAY
CONVECTION CHANCES AT THE AIRFIELD. ON THE 18Z ISSUANCE...WE HAVE
BROADENED THE TEMPO FROM 21Z TO 01Z GIVEN THE ISOLD CELLS FORMING
OVER THE WRN NC PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE MAIN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.
ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CUMULUS CIGS THROUGH EVENING...WITH ANY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS UNDER TSTMS QUITE BRIEF. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TOGGLE NW CIRCA 01Z THIS EVENING AND
THEN TURN NE OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT MIXING AND WEAK DRYING ON NRLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS AT BAY...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LOW STRATUS OR EVEN FOG IF THE AIRFIELD GETS HEAVY
RAIN TOWARD EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT NE FLOW WITH FEW TO SCT
STRATOCUMULUS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY NEAR KAVL AT ISSUANCE TIME...AND
SHOULD RAPIDLY FILL IN NEAR THE UPSTATE TAF SITES THROUGH 19Z AS THE
UPPER WAVE FORCING ARRIVES OVER AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WILL TEMPO TSRA
AT THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES 19Z TO 23Z...BUT FEATURE ONLY VCTS AT KHKY
WHERE CHANCES LOOK A BIT LESS FOR NOW. ANTICIPATE WSW WINDS TOGGLING
NW WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE AND WEAK SFC FROPA THROUGH THE EVENING...
THEN TURNING TURN MORE NRLY WITH WEAK DRYING OVERNIGHT. DRYING WILL
BE MORE LIMITED IN SRN SECTIONS...WITH MORNING RESTRICTIONS MOST
POSSIBLE FROM THE SW MTN VALLEYS TO KAND. NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FEATURED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN SW SECTIONS ON
SAT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR CONTINUED NW FLOW AT
KAVL...AND MAINLY SCT VFR CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
IN AND NEAR THE MTNS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN
TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG MAY FORM...AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   69%     HIGH  92%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...VISIN
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1203 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141615-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1203 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

GAZ018-026-028-132315-
FRANKLIN-HART-STEPHENS-
628 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HART...FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 626 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARTIN...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF CARNESVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MARTIN...
  CARNESVILLE...
  LAVONIA...
  CANON...
  REED CREEK...
  HARTWELL...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3426 8334 3432 8340 3436 8340 3457 8328
      3454 8309 3450 8307 3447 8301 3449 8290
      3445 8286 3439 8284 3423 8301 3422 8308
      3426 8313 3423 8317 3426 8331 3422 8336

CDG

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