Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A MID LEVEL SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1025 PM...LINE OF CONVECTION REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE WRN CWFA.
THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...BUT A BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THRU MIDNIGHT AS THE LINE MOVES THRU. THE LINE
SHUD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ARE OVERNIGHT LEAVING ONLY LINGERING LOW
END SCT OR ISOLATED CONVECTION BY DAYBREAK. HAVE UPDATED POP TRENDS
TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. CURRENT
LOWS LOOK ON TRACK.

AS OF 745 PM...LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST OF THE
CWFA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LATE EVENING WHEN ATMOS COOLS AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...
GOING FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH MAIN UPDATES FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

AS OF 425 PM...UPDATED POP BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECT THE
NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
LATER. EXPECT SEVERAL STRONG STORMS WITH ONLY A FEW SEVERE INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL.

AT 230 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS LINED UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UPSTATE...NWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS AND SWD INTO
THE MIDLANDS...WITH SCT SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE WEST. THE AXIS OF THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK VORT LOBE APPROACHES. THE NCEP WRF-ARW AT LEAST IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CAM HANDLING THIS. IT THEN ROTATES
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING...FIZZLING
IT OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
I HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST IN DEFERENCE
TO 12Z NAM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AT LEAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER ROBUST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BUT WITH MORE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER SBCAPES DUE TO CLOUDS...IT APPEARS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

ON THU...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A DPVA AXIS ROTATING THROUGH THERE
SHOULD BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN PEAKING IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. USED A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE OT GENERATE MOST GRID
FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED.
OR AT LEAST ABOVE CLIMO POPS...AS AN AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RH AND HIGH
PWATS WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAKLY-FORCED TROFS WILL SWING THRU THE CWFA...ENHANCING LIFT AND
LLVL CONVERGENCE. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST CAPE
EACH AFTN...WITH WEAK SHEAR COMPARED TO WHAT WE/VE HAD THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS.

I TOOK A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THE RESULT IS MID
TO HIGH-END CHC...FOLLOWING A TYPICAL DIURNAL PEAK. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...IT
LOOKS MARGINAL...AS PROFILES REMAIN MOIST IN THE MID LVLS...WHILE
SHEAR LOOKS TOO WEAK TO ORGANIZE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS. A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTNS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...GIVEN HIGH PWATS
AND DECENT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1205 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE IN/NEAR THE CWFA ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS/
PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER FLOW TRANSLATING TOWARD/ATOP THE SE CONUS.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF SAID FEATURES...ONE CAN INFER THAT OUR
DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO BE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES. IT IS NOT
CONCLUSIVE ON JUST HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACRS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE 11/00 UTC OP ECMWF STILL DEPICTING
CONSIDERABLE RESPONSE WITH SAID FEATURE AS LATE AS 00 UTC TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...TIMING CONCERNS REALLY DON/T AFFECT THE PROGGED
SENSIBLE WX FCST...DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT ABOVE CLIMO POP AND
MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEG F ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROGGED TO CREEP IT/S WAY
TOWARD/INTO THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WILL PLAN ON WARMING UP
DAILY MAXIMUMS AND DIPPING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES BACK DOWN TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST WITH LINGERING SHRA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHC THAT THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
TO THE SW COULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
HOWEVER...TIMING IS TRICKY AND CHC TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. BIGGER
CONCERN IS DEVELOPING STRATUS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS AND
MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING TO IFR
BEFORE DAYBREAK. A SLOW INCREASE OF CIGS THRU MVFR TO LOW VFR BY
NOON...WITH CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE
USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE CONVECTION.
SLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME LIGHT BY MORNING. EXPECT SSW
WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT. HOWEVER...PRECIP/CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE WRN SITES...SO MORE CONFIDENCE IN ADDING VCSH OR VCTS
TO COVER. KAVL ALSO WILL SEE DEVELOPING LIGHT NLY WIND OVERNIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO SLY WIND FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY FORM...AND IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FALLS THE DAY BEFORE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  88%     LOW   48%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  86%     MED   67%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  96%
KHKY       HIGH  91%     MED   68%     HIGH  89%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  96%     MED   74%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  94%     MED   66%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...LG/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
336 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     HAIL             2 SE REED CREEK         34.42N 82.89W
06/11/2014  E0.50 INCH       HART               GA   PUBLIC

            UP TO 0.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED SE OF REED CREEK.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
901 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     HAIL             2 SSE SIX MILE          34.78N 82.81W
06/11/2014  E0.75 INCH       PICKENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL SSE OF SIX MILE, SC.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
942 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0906 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIBERTY                 34.79N 82.70W
06/11/2014                   PICKENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            3 TREES DOWN OFF ROBINSON RIDGE RD AND PEA RIDGE ROAD IN
            LIBERTY.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
953 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE EASLEY            34.80N 82.57W
06/11/2014                   PICKENS            SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN OFF OLD STAGECOACH RD SOUTH OF EASLEY.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1019 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             3 N LIBERTY             34.84N 82.70W
06/11/2014  E1.75 INCH       PICKENS            SC   PUBLIC

            UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC NORTH
            OF LIBERTY.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WESTMINSTER         34.70N 83.09W
06/11/2014                   OCONEE             SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 TREES BLOWN DOWN JUST NORTH OF WESTMINISTER, SC.

&&

JPT