Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

706 
WGUS72 KGSP 190534
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
134 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NCC179-190730-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140919T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
UNION NC-
134 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

AT 131 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER AREAS 
BETWEEN MONROE AND MARSHVILLE WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. COUNTY 
OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN 
WINGATE AREA..

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
MARSHVILLE AND WINGATE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8030 3495 8052 3509 8047 3516 8042
      3519 8028

$$
JOH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
937 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL READINGS ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM...KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE CLT METRO AREA. WILL BUMP THE PRECIP PROBABILITY UP TO
THE CHANCE RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TREND. TEMPS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL ELY TO SELY FLOW.
COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
THEREFORE...EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE INCREASED
UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHRA ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. PATCHY FOG...WITH ISOLATED DENSE FOG...WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY LIFT AND/OR SCATTER OUT FRIDAY
GIVEN THE CONTINUED E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE ISOLATED SHRA AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE SHUD END BE MID MORNING...BEFORE PRECIP CHC INCREASES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AS MID LEVELS COOL WITH THE DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE SE. HOWEVER...
ANY FORCING WILL BE WEAKER AS WILL THE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...
EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND SCT
OVER THE MTNS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND SE FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...UNLESS CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT SOONER...WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
INITIALIZES FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A
TROF EJECTING OUT TO SEA OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  A SECOND UPPER TROF
WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS IT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES.
CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL HAVE
WEDGED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IN AN
EARLY FALL CAD REGIME.  EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL WARRANT
MENTIONABLE POPS AT FORECAST INITIALIZATION.  THUS FOR FRIDAY
EVENING THE FORECAST FEATURES CHANCE LEVEL POPS ACROSS THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS.

POPS TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AS ABOVE MENTIONED CAD WEDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT YIELDING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.  EXPECTING FORECAST TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE POPS RAMP UP AHEAD OF
APPROACHING ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY RESUME ON SUNDAY HOWEVER
SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT EVEN ISOLATED/SCATTERED
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION.  THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL DISCONTINUITY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL FRONTAL INTRUSION ON SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE SLOWER NAM BEING THE OUTLIER.  THE GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF
ARE APPROX 6 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL CONVECTION SLIDING INTO
THE NC MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.  THEREFORE CHANCE
LEVEL POPS ARE FEATURED ALONG THE TN LINE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS.  AS
FOR THE PIEDMONT REGIONS OF NC/SC...EXPECTING A DRY AND FAIRLY NICE
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM THU...LESS WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE LACKING COLD FRONT.
THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROUND OF MAINLY NC MTN SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE SOMETIME ON
MONDAY. THE INFLUX OF POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR AND ENCROACHING SFC
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WX MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE AM MINS
ARE PROGGED TO BE ABT 5 DEG F BELOW CLIMO.

THE CWFA LOOKS TO BE WITHIN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW CLOSE TO THE
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH MODERATELY
STRONG SFC RIDGING BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WITHIN THIS DRY AND COOL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEG F BELOW CLIMO EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...A PATCH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD HAS PUT A
DAMPER ON MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...ALTHO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF.
INSTEAD...EXPECT A SIMILAR PROGRESSION AS IN LAST NIGHT...WITH A LOW
CLOUD CEILING REDEVELOPING WITH THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS. THE TAF HAS THIS HAPPENING PERHAPS A BIT TOO EARLY AT
02Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY GOES UP FROM THERE. THINK THAT BY 05Z AN
MVFR CEILING IS LIKELY...AND THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP TO IFR
AROUND 10Z. KEPT THE VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...AND ANYTHING LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY AS HIGH CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. THE LOW CLOUD CEILING WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
UNITL PERHAPS 18Z. WILL KEEP THE WIND NE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS KCLT...ESPECIALLY KHKY. KAVL STILL
HAS THE BEST CHC OF SEEING LIFR OR VLIFR TOWARD MORNING...BUT TAF
WILL BE LIMITED MERELY TO IFR. ANOTHER MORNING WITH A SLOW RISE TO
LOW VFR THRU CIG RESTRICTIONS. STRONGER NELY WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THRU FRI MORN. KAVL WILL SEE LIGHT SLY WIND DEVELOP
FRI. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHC FOR A SHOWER AT KAVL ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SO A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED.

OUTLOOK...THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. CONDITIONS MAY FINALLY DRY OUT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z
KCLT       MED   63%     MED   64%     MED   74%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  84%     MED   71%     MED   71%     HIGH  88%
KAVL       HIGH  93%     HIGH  81%     MED   77%     MED   69%
KHKY       MED   75%     MED   63%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  86%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     MED   67%     MED   67%     HIGH  86%
KAND       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     MED   73%     HIGH  92%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>065-068-507>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-
019-200400-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
1146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-058-059-069-501>506-200400-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
1146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ057-070>072-082-SCZ009-014-200400-
ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-CHESTER-
1146 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

NCZ082-190430-
UNION-
1141 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1138 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARSHVILLE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MONROE...
MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WINGATE...
  UNIONVILLE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3503 8029 3497 8029 3491 8031 3498 8063
      3519 8053 3519 8049 3517 8046 3518 8043
      3512 8028

JOH