Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

September 12, 2014Avery County, Burke County, Caldwell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Sep 12, 2014, 9:41 PM EDT for Avery County, Burke County, Caldwell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Sep 12, 2014, 9:41 PM EDT (01:41 UTC)
Expired
Sep 13, 2014, 12:30 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Sep 12, 10:08 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.972 Sse Morganton, NC2.97 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR.
Sep 12, 10:26 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 3.83 Se Morganton, NC3.8 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR AND 15 MINUTES.
Sep 12, 10:50 PM EDTFLASH FLOODMorganton, NCA PORTION OF EAST MEETING STREET IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN MORGANTON DOWNTOWN AREA.
Sep 12, 10:56 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD3 Se Morganton, NCOLD COLONY RD AT FIDDLERS CREEK FLOODED.
Sep 12, 11:54 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 E Morganton, NCBETHEL RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 49 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-09-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2014-09-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 32 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
796 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

250 
WGUS52 KGSP 130141
FFWGSP
NCC011-023-027-130430-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0030.140913T0141Z-140913T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
941 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BURKE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1230 AM EDT

* AT 939 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE      
  WARNED AREA. RADAR HAD ESTIMATED POCKETS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
  HAD ALREADY FALLEN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 18/64 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
  THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS
  THE WARNED AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  LENOIR...MORGANTON...CEDAR ROCK...COLLETTSVILLE...CONNELLY
  SPRINGS...GAMEWELL...GLOBE...HUDSON...JONAS RIDGE...LAKE
  RHODHISS...PATTERSON...RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...SALEM AND VALDESE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8139 3560 8151 3556 8154 3557 8160
      3556 8165 3558 8171 3561 8172 3561 8175
      3559 8178 3582 8193 3589 8191 3596 8194
      3612 8179 3613 8155

$$
2 follow-up statements
034 
WGUS72 KGSP 130216
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1016 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCC011-023-027-130430-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140913T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
1016 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BURKE...CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1015 PM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY 
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RECORDED RAINFALL AROUND 
MORGANTON RANGED FROM 2.5 TO 4 INCHES. SEVERE URBAN FLOODING IS 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CITY.
 
RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...CEDAR ROCK...COLLETTSVILLE...CONNELLY SPRINGS...
GAMEWELL...GLOBE...HUDSON...JONAS RIDGE...LAKE RHODHISS...
PATTERSON...RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...SALEM AND VALDESE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8139 3560 8151 3556 8154 3557 8160
      3556 8165 3558 8171 3561 8172 3561 8175
      3559 8178 3582 8193 3589 8191 3596 8194
      3612 8179 3613 8155

$$

CSH
574 
WGUS72 KGSP 130258
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCC011-023-027-130430-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140913T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-BURKE NC-
1058 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BURKE...CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1051 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING 
TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND
AUTOMATED RAINGAGES WERE INDICATING 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN
ACROSS CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY AND GREATER MORGANTON. REPORTS OF ROAD
CLOSURES IN MORGANTON HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT AND MANY
TRIBUTARIES OFF THE UPPER CATAWBA AND JOHNS RIVERS WILL COME OUT OF 
THE THEIR BANKS. THIS INCLUDES HUNTING CREEK AND FIDDLERS RUN IN 
MORGANTON...AND THE HENRY FORK BASIN SOUTH OF I-40.

AGAIN...RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH 
FLOODING INCLUDE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...CEDAR ROCK... 
COLLETTSVILLE...CONNELLY SPRINGS...GAMEWELL...GLOBE...HUDSON...JONAS 
RIDGE...LAKE RHODHISS...PATTERSON...RUTHERFORD COLLEGE...SALEM AND 
VALDESE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8139 3560 8151 3556 8154 3557 8160
      3556 8165 3558 8171 3561 8172 3561 8175
      3559 8178 3582 8193 3589 8191 3596 8194
      3612 8179 3613 8155

$$

CSH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 12, 7:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 12, 7:16 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
716 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY EACH
DAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A COOL AIR WEDGE PATTERN SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2315 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...
RESULTING IN INCREASES OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA. SKY COVER WAS
UPDATED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF CONVECTION
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA. WINDS WERE UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF THE
LATEST NAM AND ADJMAV.

AS OF 250 PM...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY FRONT BOUNCING AROUND
ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF NC. THE TRUE
WEDGE BOUNDARY IS STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS
THE WEDGE BOUNDARY NOT REACHING CLT TONIGHT...BUT MOVING SOUTH OF
HKY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SRN FOOTHILLS. EITHER WAY...STRONG LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CLT METRO AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST ABOVE THE NEAR SFC LEVEL REMAINS WEAK. IN
FACT...THE WIDESPREAD STRONG SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IS SETTING UP
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA. THIS IS IN AN AREA WHERE THE ATMOS IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN OUR CWFA. EVEN WITH THE COPIOUS SUNSHINE
OVER OUR CWFA...MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM KEEPING THE
INSTABILITY IN CHECK. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWFA. HOWEVER...
OBSERVED PW VALUES THIS MORNING WERE 1.8 INCHES INSTEAD OF THE 2+
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FORECASTING. THEREFORE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY TRAINING CAN
OCCUR. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SERN CWFA AS WELL...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. IN ADDITION...CANNOT RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT CHC IS RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
DRY AIR AND LIGHT SHEAR.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SAT. WITH
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...FCST PW VALUES ARE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS NUMBERS. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR
DEVELOP...SO ANY FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT STILL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUDS
AND PRECIP...BUT NOT ESPECIALLY COOL AS THE WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
MADE LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THE SHORT RANGE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNSETTLED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A
SECOND BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST SATURDAY EVENING. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES E OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE MTNS FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE MIDWEST. A
LIKELY POP STILL LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DUE TO THE FRONT...
BUT THE PROBABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AS PW MAY
INITIALLY REMAIN HIGH. AS THE MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH BRIDGES THE MTNS
AND MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
GRADUALLY ACQUIRE A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION. WEAK UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE
AT LOW LEVELS SHOWN BY THE MODEL SHOULD SERVE TO DEVELOP EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY E OF THE MTNS...WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ARE NOT
LIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 60S. THE PARENT HIGH IS MIGRATORY AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE E COAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL NOT DO MUCH
TO LOCK IN A WEDGE FOR MONDAY...WHICH MAKES THE FCST FOR MONDAY
PROBLEMATIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE MIXES OUT THE WEDGE REMNANTS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD EASILY BE A LINGERING COOL POOL OVER THE
NC FOOTHILLS. THE TEMP FCST HAS A TEN DEGREE REBOUND OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BASED ON THE REMNANTS MIXING OUT WITH THE HIGH WEAKENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA GETS A CHANCE
OF PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICK UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH A BROAD...LONGWAVE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION LIKELY BY DAYS 6 AND 7 AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS
FARTHER EASTWARD.

AT THE SFC...THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A BROAD AREA OF WEAK
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH MOIST PROFILES PERSISTING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS. AS ONE HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ANOTHER WILL
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUES AND THEN NORTH OF OUR
REGION BY LATE WED OR THURS. BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE
HIGH WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SET UP ANOTHER COOL
AIR WEDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
YET IT STILL DOES NOT DRY THE FCST AREA OUT ON WED...BUT BY THURS IT
BEGINS TO SET UP THE WEDGE PATTERN. AS FOR POPS...THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE TUES AND WED. FOR THURS
AND FRI...I ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. TEMPS WERE LOWERED EACH
DAY BY A FEW DEGREES WITH VALUES DROPPING THRU THE PERIOD. BY NEXT
FRI...HIGHS ARE NEARLY 2 CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A FRONT IN THE
AREA AND WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALOFT. INSTABILITY WILL BE A A
MINIMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN...WHEN THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE
LOWER. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT ENE WINDS VEERING TO SE OVERNIGHT...
THEN SW EARLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. WINDS VEER NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT
DAYBREAK...AND AN MVFR CIG DEVELOPING THIS EVENING THAT BRIEFLY
LOWERS TO IFR AROUND DAWN. CIGS AND VSBY RETURN TO VFR BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT THIS EVENING. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES LATE
TONIGHT...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE...THOUGH RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OF AND ON. AT FOOTHILL SITES...LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM NE TO
SE OVERNIGHT..THEN OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW. KAVL WINDS REMAIN FROM THE S OVERNIGHT...THEN VEER N BY
DAYBREAK. FOOTHILL WINDS VEER NW BY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FAVORS MVFR VSBY LATE TONIGHT AT
SC SITES...IFR AT KHKY...AND LIFR TO VLIFR AT KAVL...WITH THE WORST
AT DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS MVFR CIGS AT SC SITES LATE
TONIGHT....WITH IFR AT SC SITES. CIGS AND VSBY RISE TO MVFR BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED...AND REMAIN STALLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE WEEKEND WHILE A WEAK WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORNING
VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EACH MORNING WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES RESIDING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z
KCLT       HIGH  86%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  88%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     MED   69%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  98%
KAVL       MED   77%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  95%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  98%
KGMU       HIGH  86%     MED   71%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  98%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 12, 4:46 PM EDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-132100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
446 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE...WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM THE STORMS AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE
SEVERAL HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME LOCATION IN SUCCESSION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 12, 8:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCZ070-071-130045-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN GASTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 809 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR I-85 AT FREEDOM DRIVE...OR NEAR CENTER CITY
CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

AMONG OTHER LOCALES...THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PAW CREEK...
  MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE.
OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH
AS TREES.

LAT...LON 3521 8056 3509 8092 3511 8094 3505 8105
      3509 8106 3512 8104 3515 8106 3515 8110
      3521 8112 3540 8099 3537 8073 3533 8068
      3527 8067

CSH
Special weather statement, Sep 12, 8:39 PM EDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
839 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCZ503-504-130130-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
839 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BURKE COUNTY THROUGH 930 PM
EDT...

AT 835 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG STORMS NEAR SALEM AND VICINITY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS...STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SALEM...
  MORGANTON...

A ROUND OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.

LAT...LON 3594 8178 3587 8170 3583 8160 3578 8156
      3577 8147 3556 8165 3561 8175 3558 8183
      3571 8187 3580 8198 3582 8198 3585 8192
      3588 8191 3596 8194 3600 8190

CSH
Special weather statement, Sep 12, 8:45 PM EDT, 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
845 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCZ053-130130-
BUNCOMBE-
845 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...A ROUND OF TORRENTIAL WILL AFFECT WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH
930 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ENKA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ENKA...
  AVERY CREEK...
  BILTMORE PARK...
  WEST ASHEVILLE...
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3548 8241 3545 8245 3544 8262 3546 8267
      3545 8271 3542 8275 3544 8278 3547 8280
      3554 8276 3556 8278 3557 8277 3561 8281
      3571 8253
Special weather statement, Sep 12, 8:54 PM EDT, 47 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
854 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCZ501-502-130200-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
854 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM
EDT...

AT 852 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE OR TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3613 8154 3610 8151 3608 8142 3602 8133
      3592 8135 3588 8133 3578 8145 3578 8154
      3579 8157 3585 8165 3588 8172 3592 8175
      3596 8180 3607 8173 3611 8180

CSH
Special weather statement, Sep 12, 9:00 PM EDT, 41 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NCZ068>070-SCZ009-130145-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN-YORK-
900 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
YORK...WESTERN LINCOLN...WESTERN GASTON AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES
THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

AT 856 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
CASAR TO YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AMONG OTHER LOCATIONS...THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT PLACES NEAR...
  CHERRYVILLE...
  SOUTH GASTONIA...
  CATAWBA STATION...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING AS WELL. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET
INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.

LAT...LON 3491 8146 3504 8145 3505 8141 3513 8140
      3516 8137 3517 8140 3540 8170 3556 8170
      3557 8141 3505 8105

CSH
Special weather statement, Sep 12, 9:14 PM EDT, 27 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
914 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

GAZ029-SCZ011-130215-
ABBEVILLE-ELBERT-
914 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ELBERT COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

AT 913 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ABBEVILLE TO FORTSONIA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3398 8266 3398 8287 3400 8290 3418 8263
      3417 8224 3407 8231 3405 8235 3406 8246
      3407 8248 3407 8253 3401 8259 3397 8258

JOH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 12, 8:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg32 min
Sep 12, 8:23 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg2 hr
Sep 12, 8:32 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMcDowell3 hr
Sep 12, 8:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBurke51 min
Sep 12, 8:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBuncombe45 min
Sep 12, 8:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCaldwell66 min
Sep 12, 9:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland45 min
Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBuncombe115 min
Sep 12, 9:11 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Caldwell3 hr
Sep 12, 9:51 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln39 min
Sep 12, 11:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCleveland, Rutherford3 hr
Sep 13, 12:17 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPBurke, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, McDowell, Rutherford3 hr
Sep 13, 12:24 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPAvery, Burke, Caldwell3 hr
Sep 13, 1:05 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Iredell, Lincoln115 min
Sep 13, 2:27 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus, Davie, Iredell, Rowan93 min
Sep 13, 3:01 AM EDTAreal Flood WarningGSPBurke2 hr
Sep 13, 3:07 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCatawba, Lincoln113 min
Sep 13, 4:44 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg46 min
Sep 13, 5:15 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPLincoln75 min
Sep 13, 5:27 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRowan48 min
Sep 13, 6:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion49 min
Sep 13, 7:30 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPUnion3 hr
Sep 13, 7:53 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg, Union52 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.