Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

792 
WGUS72 KGSP 080950
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
550 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

NCC149-081130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-140908T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK NC-
550 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL POLK COUNTY
UNTIL 730 AM EDT...

AT 547 AM EDT...AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES AND RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN ACROSS GREATER
COLUMBUS AND UP TOWARD MILL SPRING...BUT COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS
REPORTED NO FLOODED ROADS.  RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END THROUGH
7 AM...BUT LINGERING HIGH WATER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING 
INCLUDE...COLUMBUS...LAKE ADGER AND TRYON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8211 3525 8209 3519 8205 3520 8226
      3526 8231 3536 8223

$$

727 
WGUS72 KGSP 081053
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
653 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

NCC149-081130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-140908T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
POLK NC-
653 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL POLK COUNTY
UNTIL 730 AM EDT...

AT 652 AM EDT...RAIN HAD ENDED ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. LINGERING
HIGH WATER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8211 3525 8209 3519 8205 3520 8226
      3526 8231 3536 8223

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
427 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY COOL RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM EDT UPDATE...SCT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL BRIEF THUNDER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. SOME TRAINING IS NOTED ACROSS
THE SRN FTHILLS WHERE ARND 3-4 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS CENTRAL POLK
COUNTY...ACCORDING TO MESONET RAIN GAUGES. A FL.Y HAS BEEN
ISSUED...BUT A FL.W MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HR TO COVER THE
GREEN RIVER BASIN.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...A COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN A LITTLE AS IT
MOVE NORTH ALONG A STATIONARY BNDRY THIS MORNING. VAD WINDS INDICATE
MOIST AND DEEP E/LY FLOW UP TO 10 KFT WHICH HAS MAINTAINED SCT/NUM
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWFA. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGFNT/LY AND ONLY A
COUPLE POCKETS OF 1.00 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES REMAIN. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OF A HYDRO THREAT...HOWEVER AREAS ACROSS THE WRN UPSTATE AND
THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE RECEIVED ARND 2-3 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HRS OR
SO. THUS...SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE HIGH AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF
WILL BE EFFICIENT IN THESE AREAS.

A BROAD ULVL TROF WILL PULL THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY NE TODAY WHILE A
WEDGE STRENGTHENS AND PERSISTS OVER THE CWFA. THE GFS SEEMS TOO SLOW
IN THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND WILL FOLLOW THE NAM/CMC SOLNS FOR
THE TRACK PROGRESSION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE DEEP MOISTURE
FLUX INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
AND THE BEST QPF RESPONSE WILL SETUP EAST OF THE AREA. THUS...THE
HIGH END CHANCE POPS EAST WILL BECOME MID CHANCE BY THE AFTERNOON.
WITHOUT MUCH FORCING BESIDES MECH LIFT AND THE WEDGE BNDRY...PRECIP
AMOUNTS WONT BE THAT HIGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO THE SW/RN NC MTNS...NE GA AND THE
SRN UPSTATE...WHERE LIFT COMBINES WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION. THERE COULD BE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS IN
THESE AREAS DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDS AND THE DURATION OF STRONG
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD A COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FAR SW/RN ZONES AT THE END OF
THE WEDGE WHERE DRIER AIR WILL MIX IN.

THE ATMOS BECOME DRIER ALOFT AND THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OVERNIGHT AS
THE COASTAL MOISTURE FLUX IS PULLED NE OF THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL
BE BRIEF ISOL/SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE MTNS IN MECH LIFT...BUT DON/T SEE
SIGFNT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AFT 06Z OR SO...-SHRA
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SIGFNT/LY ACROSS ALL LOCALES. FAIRLY LOW STCU
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...COASTAL LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MAKE IT/S
WAY NNE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY...LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WEAKENING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN SFC WEDGE OF HIPRES. THE
EFFECTIVE WEAKENING OF THE NNELY SFC FLOW WILL AID IN BOOSTING MAX
TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE TODAY/S READINGS. WITH A WEAK VORT
RIPPLING EAST INTO THE REGION AND A EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LLVL
FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL/SLIGHT DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES...
ALTHOUGH WITH FCST SNDGS DEPICTING LIMITED CAPE AND MID-LVL
CAPPING...THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY TSTMS LOOK TO BE QUESTIONABLE. WITH
THE ONSET OF LLVL RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO CLIMO.  LLVL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HTG WILL GIVE
RISE TO AFTERNOON TSTM CHANCES ACRS THE MTNS...BUT S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING EXISTS ACRS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...THE INHERITED SENSIBLE WX FCST FOR
THURSDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE 08/00 UTC OP EXTENDED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ATOP THE REGION ON
THURSDAY WITHIN THE BROADLY CONVERGENCE SSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE MAKING INROADS INTO
THE CWFA DURING FRIDAY...DISPLACING THE VERY WARM AIR TOWARD THE
COAST. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH THE
OP GFS NOTABLY QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF IN BUILDING IN LLVL RIDGING
AND PUSHING FRONT TO THE COAST. AT THIS POINT...PRELIM WPC GUIDANCE
IS STILL FAIRLY ROBUST ON PCPN CHANCES THRU DAY 5...SO WILL PLAN
ON LEAVING INHERITED SOLID MID-CHANCE POP AS IS. PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUING ENCROACHING UPON THE CWFA
THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DEFINITIVELY DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONTINUED SHOWERY ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH
WEDGE BNDRY SETTING UP AND DEEP MOIST E/LY FLOW OFF THE ATL. IFR
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH A RISE TO MVFR BY 16Z OR
SO. SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY AND AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS MOIST BL COOLS.

ELSEWHERE...LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS IN TRAPPING WEDGE. INCLUDED VLIFR
FG AT KAVL BY DAYBREAK THROUGH 13Z AS SFC WINDS SHOULD BE THE
WEAKEST THERE. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING AT KAVL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ALSO
POSSIBLE THERE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS BY MID DAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A LOWERING INTO IFR OVERNIGHT
MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT WITH
MOUNTAIN VALLEY MORNING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY EACH DAY. A FRONT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON RESTRICTIONS AT
THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z
KCLT       MED   62%     MED   68%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       MED   74%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  88%     MED   79%
KAVL       MED   75%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       MED   74%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  89%     MED   68%
KGMU       MED   64%     HIGH  84%     MED   79%     MED   77%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  82%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
411 AM EDT MON SEP 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE THE FLOW OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
STABLE...HOWEVER ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BESIDES THE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
THREAT...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ