Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

117 
WGUS72 KGSP 100218
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SCC045-083-100500-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140810T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SPARTANBURG SC-GREENVILLE SC-
1018 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE
AND NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1014 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
SEVERAL RAIN GAGES HAVE REPORTED 3 TO 5 INCHES FELL WITHIN THE LAST 
COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...AND 
GREER IN THE PELHAM ROAD...DEVENGER ROAD...AND BRUSHY CREEK AREAS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...BOILING SPRINGS SC...CHERRYDALE POINT...
CHESNEE...FIVE FORKS...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...GREER...GSP AIRPORT...
HAYWOOD MALL...HIGHWAY 25 AT HIGHWAY 11...I-85 AT PELHAM ROAD...
INMAN...LAKE BOWEN...LAKE ROBINSON...LANDRUM...MAYO...SHOPS AT
GREENRIDGE...TAYLORS...TIGERVILLE AND TRAVELERS REST.

THERE ARE REPORTS OF CREEKS FLOODING OVER BRIDGES IN THE SUGAR CREEK 
AREA...INCLUDING BOILING SPRINGS ROAD AT BRUSHY CREEK. 
ALSO...FLOODING LIKELY OCCURRING AROUND DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE AND 
DOWNTOWN GREER...WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS STILL FALLING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8248 3516 8248 3520 8220 3519 8218
      3519 8206 3518 8187 3507 8181 3504 8181
      3503 8179 3502 8179 3502 8215 3478 8215

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO
MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINTAINING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 945 EDT SATURDAY...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT EXISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES THIS EVENING...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO CENTRAL GA TO TO EAST
TN.

ANOTHER FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTH FROM NC INTO SC...AND WAS MARKED BY
A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT FROM SE TO NE...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW
CEILINGS AND FOG. SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS AND SC FOOTHILLS. AS THIS FRONT MOVES SOUTH...SHOWERS WILL
REACH THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD INTO UPSTATE SC. DENSE FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IF
WINDS CAN DECREASE A BIT TOWARD DAWN. SOME RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY
ALONG THE FRONT AS AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT SETS UP INTO THE
BLUE RIDGE. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WHERE THEY WILL RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DOES NOT LOOK
ANY EASIER OR MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE SITUATION
ALOFT HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED IN THAT BITS OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD AND PERIODIC IMPROVEMENT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO MOVE
OVERHEAD AS THE JET STREAM MOVES PAST TO OUR N. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS
ALSO MAINTAINED... ESPECIALLY IF A REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT/WEDGE FRONT OOZES SW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND
INTO NE GEORGIA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL.
ESSENTIALLY...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...THAT DOES NOT
MEAN THAT ONE WILL POP EVERYWHERE OR THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT
GREAT AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME. WE END UP WITH A FCST THAT RETAINS A
VERY HIGH PRECIP PROBABILITY THAT GETS SMEARED ACROSS THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO GREAT UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP...WHICH PERHAPS GIVES A FALSE IMPRESSION THAT THE WEATHER
WILL BE A WASHOUT. ON THE CONTRARY...MANY PLACES WILL HAVE PERIODS
OF SEVERAL HOURS WITH NO SHOWERS. LATE TONIGHT...IF A COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THERE COULD BE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/FOG/ DRIZZLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO ENTERTAIN A WATCH. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR DAMMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...ON MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE THAT PW
WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH CAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. I WILL
MAINTAIN POPS BETWEEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...QPF WILL RANGE
FROM 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES/6 HRS. THICK CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NE GA.

TUESDAY MORNING...A MID TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
DURING THE DAY...COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN WSW
LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN MONDAY...I WILL FORECAST POPS
AROUND 40 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM AROUND 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...AT 00Z WED THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A
VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH
AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND A
BIG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE PIEDMONT AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER UPPER NY STATE THUR AND FRI
ANCHORING THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND LOW
LEVEL SW FLOW BEGINS AGAIN TO START THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...WEAK
LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS NEEDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER THURS WITH LOWS AND HIGHS ROUGHLY 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHEAST...AND MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A GUIDANCE BLEND
WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICITONS...HOWEVER SEVERAL
MODEL MEMBERS WERE...AND OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A LOW MVFR CIG LATER
TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF IFR AROUND DAWN...BUT AGAIN UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS POINT TO TROUBLE. THE CIG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT
ON SUNDAY...REACHING HIGH END MVFR BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES
IMPROVE WITH HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE BEST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...MAINLY FROM KAVL TO KGSP AND KGMU. CHANCES
WILL IMPROVE AT KAND WITH TIME AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SW. KHKY WILL
REMAIN IN MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE IFR CIG THERE
MAY PERSIST. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SE TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT. A
GUIDANCE BLEND WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN
THE FOOTHILLS...BUT SUPPORTED LIFR VSBY AT KAVL. OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM POINT TO A MORE DIRE SITUATION. AN MVFR DAYBREAK CIGS IS
EXPECTED AT KAND...WITH IFR TO LIFR AT KAVL...KGSP...AND KGMU.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IMPROVE WITH HEATING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
AT KHKY WHERE MORE STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN.

OUTLOOK...A PERSISTENT MOIST PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING TO GENERATE PERIODIC WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO
CLEAR ON MONDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            01-07Z        07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z
KCLT       HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   75%
KGSP       MED   78%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  93%     MED   78%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  90%     MED   79%     MED   73%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH  84%     MED   76%     HIGH  87%     MED   73%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  92%     HIGH  84%     MED   69%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE
VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SCZ002-005-092330-
GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PICKENS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PICKENS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3477 8283 3500 8279 3500 8257 3480 8253
      3477 8258

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SCZ003-006-007-100130-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHERN
SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR BOILING SPRINGS SC...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SPARTANBURG...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHESNEE...
  GOWENSVILLE...
  BOILING SPRINGS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3498 8233 3519 8232 3519 8200 3519 8198
      3519 8197 3519 8188 3518 8187 3508 8181
      3504 8181 3503 8179 3498 8177

ARK