Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

447 
WGUS72 KGSP 100021
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
821 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

NCC111-100036-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140810T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCDOWELL NC-
821 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MCDOWELL
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3563 8192 3561 8225 3571 8225 3572 8222
      3576 8218 3578 8198

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO
MONDAY. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINTAINING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. PERIODIC RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER...MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2000 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PER RADAR TRENDS...
FAVORING THE BLUE RIDGE...THE SMOKIES. AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CHARLOTTE METROPOLITAN AREA. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...INTRODUCING SOME BREAKS IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND THE SW MOUNTAINS.

AS OF 230 PM...ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
FORCING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY TAME THUS FAR...MAINLY LIMITED TO
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE NOT SEEM MUCH MOVEMENT
OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY OR DEVELOPMENT ALONG SAME. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE CUT BACK DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT THINK EVENTUALLY OUR
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NC
SRN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.

FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DOES NOT LOOK ANY EASIER OR MORE
CERTAIN THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE SITUATION ALOFT HAS NOT REALLY
CHANGED IN THAT BITS OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND PERIODIC
IMPROVEMENT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD AS THE JET
STREAM MOVES PAST TO OUR N. LOW LEVEL FORCING IS ALSO MAINTAINED...
ESPECIALLY IF A REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT/WEDGE FRONT OOZES
SW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND INTO NE GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. ESSENTIALLY...A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP AT ANY TIME ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT...THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT ONE WILL POP
EVERYWHERE OR THAT COVERAGE WILL BE ALL THAT GREAT AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. WE END UP WITH A FCST THAT RETAINS A VERY HIGH PRECIP
PROBABILITY THAT GETS SMEARED ACROSS THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GREAT
UNCERTAINTY WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...WHICH
PERHAPS GIVES A FALSE IMPRESSION THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE A WASHOUT.
ON THE CONTRARY...MANY PLACES WILL HAVE PERIODS OF SEVERAL HOURS
WITH NO SHOWERS. LATE TONIGHT...IF A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP
E OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/FOG/
DRIZZLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ENTERTAIN A WATCH.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF COLD
AIR DAMMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...ON MONDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS.
SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS INDICATE THAT PW
WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES WITH CAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. I WILL
MAINTAIN POPS BETWEEN 50 TO 60 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...QPF WILL RANGE
FROM 0.05 TO 0.2 INCHES/6 HRS. THICK CLOUD COVER AND ROUNDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID
70S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE UPSTATE/NE GA.

TUESDAY MORNING...A MID TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN MOIST WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.
DURING THE DAY...COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN WSW
LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN MONDAY...I WILL FORECAST POPS
AROUND 40 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM AROUND 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...AT 00Z WED THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A
VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH
AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND A
BIG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE PIEDMONT AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER UPPER NY STATE THUR AND FRI
ANCHORING THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EAST. BY LATE FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND LOW
LEVEL SW FLOW BEGINS AGAIN TO START THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...WEAK
LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS NEEDED IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE COOLEST WEATHER THURS WITH LOWS AND HIGHS ROUGHLY 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT CEILING TO BE IN
AND OUT OF AN MVFR DECK...WHICH SHOULD SETTLE IN AT THE 020-030
LEVEL. THE MVFR CONDITION WAS KEPT PREVAILING IN ORDER TO SPEND THE
TEMPO GROUP DEALING WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A BACK DOOR/WEDGE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT IS EXPECTED TO OOZE SW THIS EVENING WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BRING THE WIND BACK AROUND TO NE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EVEN THO THE TEMPO RUNS OUT AT 01Z...A SHOWER OR STORM COULD HAPPEN
AT ANY TIME...AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO PIN THAT DOWN RIGHT
NOW. A PROB30 WAS THROWN IN OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS BASICALLY TRYING
TO HIT A MOVING TARGET. LATE TONIGHT THE CEILING SHOULD DROP INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY AS COLD AIR DAMMING SETS UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT.
IF THIS DEVELOPS...THE CEILING MAY NOT IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IN SPITE OF THE MVFR INDICATED AFTER 15Z. ALL TOLD...AGREE
WITH THE MID SHIFT...FAIRLY HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WILL FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
LOCATIONS IN AND OUT OF AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AS SHOWERS DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING...AND
TAFS ARE SIMILAR TO KCLT...AS OCNL SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A PERSISTENT MOIST PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING TO GENERATE PERIODIC WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO
CLEAR ON MONDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH  90%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  95%
KGSP       MED   71%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  80%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   72%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  88%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       MED   78%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  85%
KAND       MED   73%     HIGH  85%     MED   78%     HIGH  90%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY IN THE
VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SCZ002-005-092330-
GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
647 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM
EDT...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PICKENS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PICKENS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3477 8283 3500 8279 3500 8257 3480 8253
      3477 8258

ARK