Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

July 21, 2014York County, South Carolina; Gaston County, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jul 21, 2014, 10:03 AM EDT for York County, South Carolina; Gaston County, Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 21, 2014, 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 21, 2014, 1:00 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Gaston County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, York County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 21, 10:40 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 6.252 Nw Lake Wylie, SCA PUBLIC REPORT OF 6.25 INCHES OF RAIN FELL THIS MORNING IN THE MILL CREEK AREA ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF LAKE WYLIE. HE SAID THE FIELDS ARE COVERED IN WATER.
Jul 21, 11:20 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 02 Ene Gastonia, NCDUHARTS CREEK WAS QUITE HIGH BUT WITHIN ITS BANKS EXCEPT FOR A CLOGGED DRAIN AT EAST FRANKLIN BOULEVARD WHERE WATER BRIEFLY SPILLED OUT INTO THE ROAD.
Jul 21, 1:00 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 1.86 Se Gastonia, NC1.80 IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-07-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1351 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-07-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 41 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1351 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
511 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

830 
WGUS52 KGSP 211403
FFWGSP
NCC071-119-SCC091-211700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0016.140721T1403Z-140721T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1003 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN GASTON COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
  CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 100 PM EDT

* AT 1001 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE      
  WARNED AREA. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES THAT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES 
  OF RAIN HAD FALLEN THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST YORK COUNTY
  AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
  AREA AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN GASTON AND WESTERN MECKLENBURG
  COUNTIES.  

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  GASTONIA...YORK...BELMONT...CAROWINDS...CATAWBA STATION...CLOVER...
  CRAMERTON...DALLAS...FORT MILL...LAKE WYLIE...LOWELL...MOUNT
  HOLLY...MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...NEWPORT...PAW CREEK...SOUTH
  GASTONIA...STANLEY...STEELE CREEK AND TEGA CAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8124 3541 8125 3540 8096 3524 8090
      3509 8091 3496 8087

$$
3 follow-up statements
055 
WGUS72 KGSP 211433
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NCC071-119-SCC091-211700-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140721T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GASTON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-YORK SC-
1033 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN YORK...
SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
EDT...

AT 1030 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT AS MUCH AS 3 OR 4 INCHES HAD FALLEN ACROSS FAR 
NORTHEAST YORK COUNTY...WITHIN THE BEAVERDAM AND ALLISON CREEK 
BASINS...JUST WEST OF LAKE WYLIE.

HEAVY STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH INTO GASTON 
COUNTY. 

AMONG THE FLOOD PRONE LOCALES IN THE WARNED AREA...FLOODING IS 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BEAVERDAM AND CROWDERS CREEKS...ESPECIALLY 
ALONG HIGHWAYS 557...55 AND 49...AFFECTING PARTS OF HAMMOND CHURCH 
AND RHEMA CHURCH ROADS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8124 3541 8125 3540 8096 3524 8090
      3509 8091 3496 8087

$$
322 
WGUS72 KGSP 211515
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NCC071-119-SCC091-211700-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140721T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GASTON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-YORK SC-
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN YORK...
SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
EDT...

AT 1111 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES REPORTED AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST YORK COUNTY JUST WEST OF LAKE WYLIE.

HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. 

AMONG THE FLOOD PRONE LOCALES IN THE WARNED AREA...FLOODING IS 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG BEAVERDAM AND CROWDERS CREEKS...ESPECIALLY 
ALONG HIGHWAYS 557...55 AND 49...AFFECTING PARTS OF HAMMOND CHURCH 
AND RHEMA CHURCH ROADS. IN ADDITION...CREEKS FEEDING THE SOUTH FORK 
CATAWBA IN EASTERN GASTON COUNTY WILL RISE RAPIDLY AND URBAN RUNOFF 
ISSUES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR FROM GASTONIA TO THE 
CATAWBA RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER TO NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER 
COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR 
CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8124 3541 8125 3540 8096 3524 8090
      3509 8091 3496 8087

$$
914 
WGUS72 KGSP 211651
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NCC071-119-SCC091-211705-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140721T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GASTON NC-MECKLENBURG NC-YORK SC-
1251 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
YORK...SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND EASTERN GASTON COUNTIES WILL 
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

WITH ONLY MODERATE SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WARNED AREA...AND
THE ALISON CREEK STREAMGAGE AT SOUTH KINGSBURY ROAD CRESTED AND
FALLING...THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8124 3541 8125 3540 8096 3524 8090
      3509 8091 3496 8087

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 21, 6:52 AM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 6:52 AM EDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
652 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUMP DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH DURING MID WEEK AND THEN STALL OVER THE REGION DURING THE
LATE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH OUT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAS EXPANDED OVER
THE PAST HOUR...AS ANTICIPATED. I WILL FORECAST TO ALIGN TEMPS TO
LATEST OBS. OVERALL...THE FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 530 AM...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SC/GA FOOTHILLS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY ARRIVE FROM THE MIDLANDS OVER THE
NEXT TWO HOURS. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD CONDITIONS...I WILL
UPDATE TO MAKE HRLY ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD OBSERVATIONS.

AS OF 330 AM...LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED BETWEEN 300-900
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE REGION...CAPPED BY 100-200 J/KG OF CIN.
RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL PATCHES OF SHRAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. SHRAS AND TSRAS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE
AS A WEAK S/W APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST. CAMS INDICATE THAT
COVERAGE MAY DECREASE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS AS LLVL FLOW
VEERS NORTHEAST AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LLVL CIN WILL ERODE UNDER A FIELD OF CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. I WILL FORECAST 40 POPS ACROSS THE MTNS WITH 50 POPS EAST OF
I-85. SKY COVER IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK WITHIN
TWO DEGREES OF VALUES OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...H5 LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MS/AL GULF COAST. THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL LIKELY YIELD THE PASSAGE OF WEAK S/W. THE
PASSING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT SHRA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH PATCHY FOG. A BLEND OF PREFERRED
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MIN TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS LIKE A SLOW
TRANSITION BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND A DIGGING UPPER TROF INTO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
FAVOR A RETURN TO MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THE PRECIP BY LATE
WEEK...BUT THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE LAST DAY THAT WILL
FEATURE A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE. THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD
EASILY SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL
HEATING. A LIKELY POP WAS KEPT NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE WHERE FORCING
MIGHT BE BEST. KEPT TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH PRECIP
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THE FLOW AT 850 MB IS FCST TO VEER
SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE
PRECIP CHANCE DROPS OFF TO SLIGHT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY BUT SUSPECT THIS IS STILL TOO HIGH. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY
EXPECT THAT WE WILL BREAK OUT AND SEE SOME SUN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL WEAKENING
SHOULD HAPPEN WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE FROM THE N WARRANTS KEEPING A CHANCE ALL NIGHT OVER THE NRN
HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...HARD TO FIND MANY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY WITH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FCST. FEW CHANGES WERE SUGGESTED WITH
THE NEW GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN FAVOR OF THE ONGOING FCST. THE MAIN
PROBLEM WILL BE THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT DOWN FROM THE N INTO THE FCST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE A DECENT FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
PRECIP CHANCES WERE RAISED EARLIER IN THE DAY AND TOP OUT IN THE
LIKELY RANGE OVER THE NRN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO ESSENTIALLY STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...INITIAL SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A
VARIETY OF CLOUD DECKS AND SCT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLT
OBSERVATIONS REVEALED IFR CEILINGS AT 1045Z. HOWEVER...THICK DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT IFR CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BKN OR FILL TO
OVC THROUGH MID MORNING. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH WINDS BETWEEN 060-080 DEGREES. THE WINDOW BETWEEN 21Z-24Z
WILL LIKELY BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY PERIOD FOR TSRA...I WILL HIGHLIGHT
WITH A PROB30. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING...THE 12Z TAF WILL BE MODELED AFTER THIS MORNINGS OBS.

ELSEWHERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SUPPORT
CEILINGS TO FALL AND PERSIST AT IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
SHOULD FAVOR MVFR FOR THE MID AND LATE MORNING...WITH VFR AROUND MID
DAY. WINDS SHOULD BETWEEN 060-090 DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
WINDOW BETWEEN 21Z-24Z WILL LIKELY BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY PERIOD FOR
TSRA...I WILL HIGHLIGHT WITH A PROB30. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...THE 12Z TAF WILL BE MODELED
AFTER THIS MORNINGS OBS.

OUTLOOK...A GRADUAL RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED STARTING THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
STRONGER CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INTO MID
MORNING FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            11-17Z        17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z
KCLT       MED   73%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  83%     MED   79%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  85%
KAVL       HIGH  89%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  87%
KHKY       MED   74%     HIGH  80%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  81%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  88%
KAND       HIGH  83%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  86%     MED   78%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 5:42 AM EDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-220945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
542 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS WILL RAISE
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 8:32 AM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
832 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NCZ068-070-071-SCZ008-009-211315-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
832 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
YORK...NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...GASTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 915 AM EDT...

AT 825 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN YORK
COUNTY AND JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE WYLIE. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO
THE NORTH AT APPROXIMATELY 15 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  YORK...
  NEWPORT...
  CLOVER...
  CATAWBA STATION...
  TEGA CAY...
  LAKE WYLIE...
  GASTONIA...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3542 8145 3540 8097 3482 8092 3482 8145

LGL
Special weather statement, Jul 21, 9:25 AM EDT, 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NCZ068>071-SCZ008-009-211415-
CHEROKEE-CLEVELAND-GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
925 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
YORK...EASTERN CHEROKEE...WESTERN MECKLENBURG...LINCOLN...GASTON AND
EASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 AM EDT...

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  YORK...
  ROCK HILL...
  LAKE WYLIE...
  CHARLOTTE...
  BESSEMER CITY...
  GASTONIA...

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3505 8088 3505 8089 3483 8090 3482 8111
      3483 8147 3484 8146 3487 8149 3557 8154
      3552 8095 3550 8096 3549 8095 3551 8091
      3551 8084

LGL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 21, 8:32 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYork43 min
Jul 21, 9:25 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPYork50 min
Jul 21, 9:53 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCherokee, York2 hr
Jul 21, 12:22 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCherokee, Greenville, Spartanburg2 hr
Jul 21, 3:32 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPGreenwood118 min
Jul 21, 4:12 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGreenwood48 min
Jul 21, 4:44 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPAbbeville106 min
Jul 21, 11:48 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCabarrus, Rowan2 hr
Jul 21, 1:26 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Flash Flood Warnings in South Carolina, 2014Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.