Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

June 27, 2014Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jun 27, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT for Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jun 27, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired
Jun 27, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Mecklenburg County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jun 27, 6:49 PM EDTFLOOD4 E Charlotte, NCDEEP STANDING WATER NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INDEPENDENCE BLVD. AND NORTH SHARON AMITY ROAD STALLED A CAR. TWO ADULTS AND TWO CHILDREN HAD TO ABANDON THE CAR AND WALK TO HIGHER GROUND.
Jun 27, 7:45 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD3 Se Charlotte, NCSTAGE ON MCMULLEN CREEK AT LINCREST PLACE REACHED THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. AT THIS STAGE ADDISON DRIVE AND LINCREST ROAD WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERTOPPED.
Jun 27, 9:40 PM EDTHEAVY RAIN 06 Se Charlotte, NCUSGS RAIN GAUGE ON MCALPINE CREEK AT SARDIS ROAD MEASURED 3.95 INCHES SINCE 6 PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 60 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-06-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 429 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-06-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 11 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
429 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-79 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
836 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
11 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

834 
WGUS52 KGSP 272245
FFWGSP
NCC119-280130-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0011.140627T2245Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MECKLENBURG COUNTY. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES AND RADAR RAINFALL 
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING 
THE PAST HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY 8 
PM.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO   
OCCUR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS IN THE AREA INCLUDING 
MCALPINE...STEELE...FOUR MILE...LOWER SUGAR...CROOKED AND GOOSE 
CREEKS. HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE MATTHEWS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES 
ON LOCAL CREEKS ESPECIALLY FOUR MILE CREEK. FLOODING IN LOW LYING 
AREAS NEAR THESE CREEKS ESPECIALLY ALONG IVERLEIGH TRAIL...REVERDY 
OAKS AND STEVENS RIDGE ROADS IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
      3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
      3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055

$$

NED
3 follow-up statements
539 
WGUS72 KGSP 272329
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NCC119-280130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES AND RADAR 
RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
ACROSS THE REGION SINCE 630 PM. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT AN 
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM.

AT 715 PM...AUTOMATED STREAM GAUGE LOCATED ON MCMULLEN CREEK AT 
LINCREST PLACE WAS 7.16 FEET AND RISING...FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. 
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR MCMULLEN CREEK WILL BE 
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG ADDISON DRIVE AND LINCREST PLACE. 
WILLHAVEN DRIVE...RANDOLPH ROAD AND SHASTA LANE MAY ALSO BE 
AFFECTED. 

RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. 
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS IN THE AREA INCLUDING 
MCALPINE...STEELE...FOUR MILE...LOWER SUGAR...CROOKED AND GOOSE 
CREEKS. HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE MATTHEWS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES 
ON LOCAL CREEKS ESPECIALLY FOUR MILE CREEK. FLOODING IN LOW LYING 
AREAS NEAR THESE CREEKS ESPECIALLY ALONG IVERLEIGH TRAIL...REVERDY 
OAKS AND STEVENS RIDGE ROADS IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
      3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
      3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055

$$

NED
351 
WGUS72 KGSP 280039
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
839 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NCC119-280130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
839 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
CLUSTER OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG 
COUNTY. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THAT 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS FALLEN SINCE 630 PM. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD 
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY BY 930 PM.

THE HEAVY RAIN RESULTED IN MANY PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY 
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...MANY AREA CREEKS ARE FLOWING OUT 
OF THEIR BANKS WITH SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER...ESPECIALLY THE LITTLE 
SUGAR...MCMULLEN...AND BRIAR CREEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL 
RESULT IN SUDDEN RISES OF WATER LEVELS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
      3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
      3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055

$$

NED
190 
WGUS72 KGSP 280128
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NCC119-280143-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 930 PM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
      3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
      3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055

$$

NED

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST CONDITIONS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON PATTERN
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...EARLIER SHIELD OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAMPERED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...IN TURN LIMITING
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. COVERAGE INDEED REMAINS QUITE A BIT MORE
SPARSE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...PRIMARILY ISOLATED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS OF BETTER COVERAGE (I.E. THE
EASTERN SC/SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND THE MTNS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NC AND
NORTHEAST GA). WITH THE BETTER AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE SC MIDLANDS...AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER BUOYANCY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...
CONCERNS ABOUND THAT THE POP FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS AN AXIS
OF 2500 PLUS CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS THERE AS WELL AS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
AREA. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...THE MID/UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING...AND EXPECT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
DESTABILIZATION TO RESULT IN EXPANSION OF COVERAGE...WARRANTING A 50
POP IN THESE AREAS.

AS OF 230 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...AND CLOSER TO AN OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE LAKELANDS THAT WAS ALSO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MORNING MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IF MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO THIN AND WE CAN FIND A TRIGGER/FOCUS. MEANWHILE...
CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS PW WAS ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND STORM MOTION
WILL BE SLOW...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANCHORING OF CELLS. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLER THAN FCST DUE TO PERSISTENT/THICKER CLOUDS UP
UNTIL THIS POINT...SO MAX TEMP WAS CUT A FEW DEGREES.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG
THE EAST COAST WHILE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST
AREA ON SATURDAY. A VORT CENTER STUCK IN THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. IT IS AT LOW
LEVELS WHERE THE FCST IS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHO LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOVEMENT OF THE 850
MB LOW OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONES OVER THE SE AND TO THE N
WILL BRING A COL REGION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. THAT WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
NORTHERLY AND WRECK THE BETTER MECHANICAL FORCING LATER TONIGHT...
AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE PRECIP COVERAGE. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
THE MAIN CONCERN. ON THE ONE HAND...THE PW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 150 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING WETTER OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL. DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SUGGEST BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB CIRCULATION OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT IS
SHORT LIVED. BOTTOM LINE IS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP POP
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENTERTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NORTH
AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST BUT SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TO EAST OF FLORIDA BY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY WILL BE WEDGED
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING THE WEDGE-LIKE PRESSURE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO
ERODE ON SUNDAY...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY. WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA....WIND FIELDS
ACTUALLY FEATURE A COL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NOT A STRONG
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA IS EVIDENT AT
925 MB OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THIS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IN THAT AREA. WILL
CERTAINLY FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODEL QPF IS NOT EXCESSIVE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT AT THIS POINT WE
DON'T FEEL IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK ON SUN...BUT STILL EXPECT SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE WEAKLY CONVERGENCT FLOW. ON
MONDAY...H850 FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY DOWNSLOPE...BUT AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE HINDERED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP ON
SUNDAY SO THEY SHOULD TOP OUT JUST SHY OF NORMAL. BETTER INSOLATION
ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH CLIMO LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARDS FROM THE MIDWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVING A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE CWA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SOME DRYING TO THE CWA. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARDS ON
THURSDAY...DRIVING A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDING
SOME REINFORCING DRY AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FORCING FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHT QPF RESPONSE OVER THE CWA. PRECIP WILL FOLLOW A
MORE DIURNAL TREND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE DRIER AIRMASS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW LEND
THEMSELVES TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH 19Z-20Z...BUT THINK MID
LEVEL DECK WILL THIN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO FORM AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGER NEW STORMS. A TEMPO WAS KEPT FOR TSRA
STARTING AT 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT IN REALITY THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE EVENING. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRODUCTIVE LATER THIS EVENING
AND SO THE CEILING WAS LOWERED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT 03Z.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR AS IDEAL OF AN UPSLOPE
FLOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...THE TAF WAS KEPT MVFR FOR NOW.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT NE AWAY FROM STORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM OVER THE MTNS INITIALLY...BUT WILL EXPAND OUT FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ALL LOCATIONS GET A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
SOME POINT AND THIS SHOULD BE THOUGHT OF AS A PLACEHOLDER...FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CEILING AT KAVL WILL PROBABLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON BUT FALL BACK DOWN AGAIN IN THE EVENING. APART FROM
THAT...THE FCST IS VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.

OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE. FURTHER RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON TSRA AND
ALSO IN FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING. THE EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRES WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  81%     HIGH  96%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  82%     MED   77%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   75%     HIGH  85%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   79%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  88%     MED   71%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...ARK/VISIN
AVIATION...PM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STATIONARY OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ALSO...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING HOURS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 27, 2:30 PM EDT, 4 hours 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-271915-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CAESARS HEAD...
  JONES GAP STATE PARK...
  MARIETTA...

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3514 8279 3524 8243 3502 8237 3499 8247
      3497 8274

ARK
Special weather statement, Jun 27, 2:55 PM EDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GAZ029-271945-
ELBERT-
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ELBERTON...
  FORTSONIA...

SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3398 8266 3397 8276 3397 8279 3398 8282
      3398 8286 3400 8293 3409 8303 3421 8275
      3415 8272 3414 8270 3396 8256 3396 8258

ARK
Special weather statement, Jun 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GAZ010-017-272145-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HABERSHAM AND RABUN COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR LAKE RABUN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF CLAYTON...TO AROUND CLARKSVILLE IN HABERSHAM COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TALLULAH FALLS...
  TURNERVILLE...
  CLARKSVILLE...
  CORNELIA...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3499 8354 3500 8309 3493 8315 3487 8324
      3482 8327 3482 8331 3475 8332 3473 8335
      3469 8334 3467 8337 3449 8346 3446 8364
      3452 8365 3455 8362 3466 8367 3476 8363
      3480 8368

STUREY
Local storm report, Jun 27, 4:43 PM EDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELBERTON                34.11N 82.86W
06/27/2014                   ELBERT             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL POWERLINES DOWN WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

NED
Special weather statement, Jun 27, 5:37 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SCZ007-272230-
SPARTANBURG-
537 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE BOWEN...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BOWEN...
  BOILING SPRINGS SC...
  BOILING SPRINGS SC...
  USC UPSTATE...
  MAYO...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3506 8219 3519 8214 3516 8186 3511 8183
      3495 8191

STUREY
Special weather statement, Jun 27, 6:07 PM EDT, 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-014-272330-
CABARRUS-CHESTER-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-UNION-YORK-
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT UNION...SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTIES IN
THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND EASTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF CONCORD TO AROUND CHARLOTTE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  UNC CHARLOTTE...
  MINT HILL...
  EASTLAND MALL...
  MCALPINE CREEK PARK...
  THE PLAZA...
  CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...PEA SIZE HAIL...30 TO 40 MPH WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS REPEAT
COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS
MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL OR URBAN FLOOD PROBLEMS.

LAT...LON 3482 8032 3481 8046 3481 8079 3494 8079
      3505 8089 3501 8090 3495 8086 3484 8086
      3482 8089 3477 8086 3475 8087 3474 8094
      3513 8121 3548 8031 3519 8050 3517 8044
      3519 8029

STUREY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 27, 2:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPTransylvania45 min
Jun 27, 6:07 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg, Union83 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.