Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014
Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Jun 27, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT for Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 27, 2014, 6:45 PM EDT (22:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 27, 2014, 9:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
County Mecklenburg County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 6:49 PM EDT | FLOOD | 4 E Charlotte, NC | DEEP STANDING WATER NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF INDEPENDENCE BLVD. AND NORTH SHARON AMITY ROAD STALLED A CAR. TWO ADULTS AND TWO CHILDREN HAD TO ABANDON THE CAR AND WALK TO HIGHER GROUND. |
| Jun 27, 7:45 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Se Charlotte, NC | STAGE ON MCMULLEN CREEK AT LINCREST PLACE REACHED THE FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. AT THIS STAGE ADDISON DRIVE AND LINCREST ROAD WILL BEGIN TO BE OVERTOPPED. |
| Jun 27, 9:40 PM EDT | HEAVY RAIN 0 | 6 Se Charlotte, NC | USGS RAIN GAUGE ON MCALPINE CREEK AT SARDIS ROAD MEASURED 3.95 INCHES SINCE 6 PM. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 60 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 429 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -79 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 836 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
834
WGUS52 KGSP 272245
FFWGSP
NCC119-280130-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0011.140627T2245Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
* UNTIL 930 PM EDT
* AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTY. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES AND RADAR RAINFALL
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING
THE PAST HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY 8
PM.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS IN THE AREA INCLUDING
MCALPINE...STEELE...FOUR MILE...LOWER SUGAR...CROOKED AND GOOSE
CREEKS. HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE MATTHEWS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES
ON LOCAL CREEKS ESPECIALLY FOUR MILE CREEK. FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR THESE CREEKS ESPECIALLY ALONG IVERLEIGH TRAIL...REVERDY
OAKS AND STEVENS RIDGE ROADS IS POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
&&
LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055
$$
NED3 follow-up statements
539
WGUS72 KGSP 272329
FFSGSP
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NCC119-280130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT...
AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES AND RADAR
RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE REGION SINCE 630 PM. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM.
AT 715 PM...AUTOMATED STREAM GAUGE LOCATED ON MCMULLEN CREEK AT
LINCREST PLACE WAS 7.16 FEET AND RISING...FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR MCMULLEN CREEK WILL BE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG ADDISON DRIVE AND LINCREST PLACE.
WILLHAVEN DRIVE...RANDOLPH ROAD AND SHASTA LANE MAY ALSO BE
AFFECTED.
RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS IN THE AREA INCLUDING
MCALPINE...STEELE...FOUR MILE...LOWER SUGAR...CROOKED AND GOOSE
CREEKS. HEAVY RAIN WEST OF THE MATTHEWS AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES
ON LOCAL CREEKS ESPECIALLY FOUR MILE CREEK. FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS NEAR THESE CREEKS ESPECIALLY ALONG IVERLEIGH TRAIL...REVERDY
OAKS AND STEVENS RIDGE ROADS IS POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
&&
LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055
$$
NED351
WGUS72 KGSP 280039
FFSGSP
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
839 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NCC119-280130-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
839 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT...
AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG
COUNTY. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED THAT 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN SINCE 630 PM. AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY BY 930 PM.
THE HEAVY RAIN RESULTED IN MANY PROBLEMS ON AREA ROADS...ESPECIALLY
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER...MANY AREA CREEKS ARE FLOWING OUT
OF THEIR BANKS WITH SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER...ESPECIALLY THE LITTLE
SUGAR...MCMULLEN...AND BRIAR CREEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN SUDDEN RISES OF WATER LEVELS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.
PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
&&
LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055
$$
NED190
WGUS72 KGSP 280128
FFSGSP
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NCC119-280143-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140628T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 930 PM EDT...
EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR
FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
&&
LAT...LON 3504 8076 3503 8080 3501 8083 3506 8090
3511 8094 3510 8095 3513 8099 3528 8086
3534 8070 3533 8068 3527 8067 3521 8055
$$
NEDWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST CONDITIONS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT AND OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AFTERNOON PATTERN
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK BOUNDARIES MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 PM...AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...EARLIER SHIELD OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAMPERED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...IN TURN LIMITING
THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. COVERAGE INDEED REMAINS QUITE A BIT MORE
SPARSE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...PRIMARILY ISOLATED
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS OF BETTER COVERAGE (I.E. THE
EASTERN SC/SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND THE MTNS OF FAR SOUTHWEST NC AND
NORTHEAST GA). WITH THE BETTER AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE SC MIDLANDS...AND
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER BUOYANCY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
MORE THAN SCATTERED CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...
CONCERNS ABOUND THAT THE POP FORECAST MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS AN AXIS
OF 2500 PLUS CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS THERE AS WELL AS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
AREA. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE...THE MID/UPPER
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY CLEARING...AND EXPECT A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
DESTABILIZATION TO RESULT IN EXPANSION OF COVERAGE...WARRANTING A 50
POP IN THESE AREAS.
AS OF 230 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE MTNS...AND CLOSER TO AN OLD BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE LAKELANDS THAT WAS ALSO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MORNING MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS IF MID LEVEL
DECK CONTINUES TO THIN AND WE CAN FIND A TRIGGER/FOCUS. MEANWHILE...
CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS PW WAS ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND STORM MOTION
WILL BE SLOW...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANCHORING OF CELLS. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLER THAN FCST DUE TO PERSISTENT/THICKER CLOUDS UP
UNTIL THIS POINT...SO MAX TEMP WAS CUT A FEW DEGREES.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALONG
THE EAST COAST WHILE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FCST
AREA ON SATURDAY. A VORT CENTER STUCK IN THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WEAK LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. IT IS AT LOW
LEVELS WHERE THE FCST IS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHO LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOVEMENT OF THE 850
MB LOW OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONES OVER THE SE AND TO THE N
WILL BRING A COL REGION OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY SUNRISE ON
SATURDAY. THAT WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
NORTHERLY AND WRECK THE BETTER MECHANICAL FORCING LATER TONIGHT...
AND MAY ALLOW FOR A LULL IN THE PRECIP COVERAGE. FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
THE MAIN CONCERN. ON THE ONE HAND...THE PW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 150 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING WETTER OVER THE NRN FOOTHILLS...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND
THE LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE LESS THAN IDEAL. DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SUGGEST BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB CIRCULATION OVER THE FCST AREA...BUT THAT IS
SHORT LIVED. BOTTOM LINE IS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP POP
LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ENTERTAIN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NORTH
AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MEANDER OFF THE SE COAST BUT SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TO EAST OF FLORIDA BY
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST INITIALLY WILL BE WEDGED
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING THE WEDGE-LIKE PRESSURE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO
ERODE ON SUNDAY...WITH A BERMUDA HIGH SURFACE PATTERN DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY. WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA....WIND FIELDS
ACTUALLY FEATURE A COL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NOT A STRONG
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A WEAK CONVERGENCE AREA IS EVIDENT AT
925 MB OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. MODELS ARE
KEYING ON THIS TO PRODUCE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IN THAT AREA. WILL
CERTAINLY FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODEL QPF IS NOT EXCESSIVE. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT AT THIS POINT WE
DON'T FEEL IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO. WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN WEAK ON SUN...BUT STILL EXPECT SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE WEAKLY CONVERGENCT FLOW. ON
MONDAY...H850 FLOW BECOMES WEAKLY DOWNSLOPE...BUT AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE HINDERED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP ON
SUNDAY SO THEY SHOULD TOP OUT JUST SHY OF NORMAL. BETTER INSOLATION
ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH CLIMO LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARDS FROM THE MIDWEST AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...DRIVING A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE CWA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ARRIVE
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING SOME DRYING TO THE CWA. A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARDS ON
THURSDAY...DRIVING A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND PROVIDING
SOME REINFORCING DRY AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FORCING FROM
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK HOWEVER...WITH MODELS
SHOWING SLIGHT QPF RESPONSE OVER THE CWA. PRECIP WILL FOLLOW A
MORE DIURNAL TREND WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE DRIER AIRMASS AND SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW LEND
THEMSELVES TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND CHANCE
POPS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE EVENING. BETTER COVERAGE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD THROUGH 19Z-20Z...BUT THINK MID
LEVEL DECK WILL THIN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO FORM AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TRIGGER NEW STORMS. A TEMPO WAS KEPT FOR TSRA
STARTING AT 20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT IN REALITY THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL EXTEND FARTHER INTO THE EVENING. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRODUCTIVE LATER THIS EVENING
AND SO THE CEILING WAS LOWERED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT 03Z.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO BACK THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND TO A
BIT MORE NORTHERLY WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR AS IDEAL OF AN UPSLOPE
FLOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO...THE TAF WAS KEPT MVFR FOR NOW.
THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AT ANY TIME OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
CLOUD CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT NE AWAY FROM STORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM OVER THE MTNS INITIALLY...BUT WILL EXPAND OUT FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ALL LOCATIONS GET A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT
SOME POINT AND THIS SHOULD BE THOUGHT OF AS A PLACEHOLDER...FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CEILING AT KAVL WILL PROBABLY LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON BUT FALL BACK DOWN AGAIN IN THE EVENING. APART FROM
THAT...THE FCST IS VERY SIMILAR TO KCLT BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
OUTLOOK...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH DEVELOPING LOW CLOUD RESTRICTIONS ALSO
POSSIBLE. FURTHER RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON TSRA AND
ALSO IN FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING. THE EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRES WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z
KCLT HIGH 100% MED 75% HIGH 81% HIGH 96%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 82% MED 77%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 82% HIGH 86%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 80% MED 75% HIGH 85%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% MED 79%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% MED 71%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...VISIN
NEAR TERM...JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...ARK/VISIN
AVIATION...PMHazardous weather outlook, Jun 27, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 325 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281930- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER- IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 325 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS PROBABLE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STATIONARY OR REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING. ALSO...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR INTO THE EVENING HOURS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. ..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 27, 2:30 PM EDT, 4 hours 15 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-271915-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE...EAST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TABLE ROCK STATE PARK...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
CAESARS HEAD...
JONES GAP STATE PARK...
MARIETTA...
SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
LAT...LON 3514 8279 3524 8243 3502 8237 3499 8247
3497 8274
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 2:55 PM EDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GAZ029-271945-
ELBERT-
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...
AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
ELBERTON...
FORTSONIA...
SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
LAT...LON 3398 8266 3397 8276 3397 8279 3398 8282
3398 8286 3400 8293 3409 8303 3421 8275
3415 8272 3414 8270 3396 8256 3396 8258
ARKSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GAZ010-017-272145-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HABERSHAM AND RABUN COUNTIES
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...
AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR LAKE RABUN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF CLAYTON...TO AROUND CLARKSVILLE IN HABERSHAM COUNTY.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
TALLULAH FALLS...
TURNERVILLE...
CLARKSVILLE...
CORNELIA...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
LAT...LON 3499 8354 3500 8309 3493 8315 3487 8324
3482 8327 3482 8331 3475 8332 3473 8335
3469 8334 3467 8337 3449 8346 3446 8364
3452 8365 3455 8362 3466 8367 3476 8363
3480 8368
STUREYLocal storm report, Jun 27, 4:43 PM EDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
443 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0332 PM TSTM WND DMG ELBERTON 34.11N 82.86W
06/27/2014 ELBERT GA 911 CALL CENTER
SEVERAL POWERLINES DOWN WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
NEDSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 5:37 PM EDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
537 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
SCZ007-272230-
SPARTANBURG-
537 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SPARTANBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...
AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE BOWEN...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
LAKE BOWEN...
BOILING SPRINGS SC...
BOILING SPRINGS SC...
USC UPSTATE...
MAYO...
DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.
LAT...LON 3506 8219 3519 8214 3516 8186 3511 8183
3495 8191
STUREYSpecial weather statement, Jun 27, 6:07 PM EDT, 38 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-014-272330-
CABARRUS-CHESTER-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-UNION-YORK-
607 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT UNION...SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTIES IN
THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND EASTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 730 PM EDT...
AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF CONCORD TO AROUND CHARLOTTE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
UNC CHARLOTTE...
MINT HILL...
EASTLAND MALL...
MCALPINE CREEK PARK...
THE PLAZA...
CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...PEA SIZE HAIL...30 TO 40 MPH WINDS AND
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS REPEAT
COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS
MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL OR URBAN FLOOD PROBLEMS.
LAT...LON 3482 8032 3481 8046 3481 8079 3494 8079
3505 8089 3501 8090 3495 8086 3484 8086
3482 8089 3477 8086 3475 8087 3474 8094
3513 8121 3548 8031 3519 8050 3517 8044
3519 8029
STUREYThe office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Transylvania | 45 min |
| Jun 27, 6:07 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Mecklenburg, Union | 83 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every flash flood warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.