Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

255 
WWUS43 KGRR 120123
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
923 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MIZ073-074-120930-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0005.140312T0300Z-140312T1900Z/
CALHOUN-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON
923 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW
   WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE
   TAPERING OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

 * SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES TOWARD
   DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
   WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES WITH
   SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

IMPACTS...

 * THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 
   94 COULD SEE HIGHER IMPACTS. 

 * TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 
   FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR ICY 
   CONDITIONS. 

 * VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE HEAVIER PERIODS 
   OF SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT 
   WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. 

&&

$$

MIZ057>059-064>067-071-072-120930-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.140312T0300Z-140312T1900Z/
KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...
HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...
KALAMAZOO
923 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW
   WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE
   TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK
   WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES.
   HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE NEAR A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO
   LANSING...TAPERING OFF TO AN INCH NORTHWEST OF A HOLLAND TO ALMA
   LINE.

IMPACTS...

 * THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 
   96 COULD BE MODERATELY IMPACTED. 

 * TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 
   FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR ICY 
   CONDITIONS. 

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING SNOW AND SOME BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING SNOW COULD ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT 
   WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. 

&&

$$

041 
WWUS43 KGRR 120737
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

MIZ073-074-121545-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140312T1900Z/
CALHOUN-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON
337 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE
   THIS MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD NOON. 

 * SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OVER AN
   INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD 
   DAYBREAK WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND SOME HIGHER 
   GUSTS. 

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME
   LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

IMPACTS...

 * THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE GREATLY IMPACTED THIS MORNING...
   ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94.

 * TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY DAYBREAK THIS
   MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING
   FOR ICY CONDITIONS.

 * VISIBILITIES COULD FALL TO NEAR ZERO IN THE HEAVIER PERIODS 
   OF SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT 
   WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. 

&&

$$

MIZ057>059-064>067-071-072-121545-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-140312T1900Z/
KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...
HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...
KALAMAZOO
337 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW 
   WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE BEFORE 
   TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME POSSIBLE TOWARD 
   DAYBREAK WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND SOME HIGHER 
   GUSTS. 

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO LOCALLY 6
   INCHES. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE NEAR A LINE FROM KALAMAZOO TO
   NEAR MASON...TAPERING OFF TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A HOLLAND TO
   ALMA LINE.

IMPACTS...

 * THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED THIS MORNING... ESPECIALLY
   ALONG INTERSTATE 96...INTERSTATE 196...AND INTERSTATE 94 FROM
   KALAMAZOO TO THE WEST.

 * TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
   FALL THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR ICY CONDITIONS.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH FALLING SNOW AND SOME BLOWING AND 
   DRIFTING SNOW COULD ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT 
   WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. 

&&

$$

NJJ

787 
WWUS43 KGRR 121313
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
913 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

MIZ073-074-121900-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140312T1900Z/
CALHOUN-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON
913 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW HEAVIEST BEFORE 11 AM WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR A QUARTER
   MILE AND ACCUMULATION RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOUR.

 * SNOW ENDING BY 2 PM.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
   MPH.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AROUND 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

IMPACTS...

 * VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY
   AROUND INTERSTATE 94.

 * BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES KEEPING ICY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
   DAY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO
   ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT SLOW
   IN ICE AND SNOW.

&&

$$

MIZ057>059-064>067-071-072-121900-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-140312T1900Z/
KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...
HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...
KALAMAZOO
913 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH NOON.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
   MPH.

 * ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE THE
   REST OF THIS MORNING.

IMPACTS...

 * VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES.

 * BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES KEEPING ICY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
   DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO
   ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT SLOW
   IN ICE AND SNOW.

&&

$$

TJT

569 
WWUS43 KGRR 121557
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1157 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

MIZ073-121700-
/O.CAN.KGRR.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140312T1900Z/
CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BATTLE CREEK
1157 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE THE SNOW HAS
   MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WERE COMMON.
 

&&

$$

MIZ057>059-064>066-071-072-121700-
/O.CAN.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-140312T1900Z/
KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...
HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO
1157 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED SINCE THE SNOW
   HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

 * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WERE COMMON...WITH AS MUCH AS
   8 INCHES IN EATON RAPIDS.

&&

$$

MIZ074-121800-
/O.EXT.KGRR.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140312T1800Z/
JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JACKSON
1157 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH IS
   POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS.

 * SNOW ENDING BY 2 PM.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 
   MPH. 

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AROUND 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
   AMOUNTS.

IMPACTS...

 * VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES... 
   ESPECIALLY AROUND INTERSTATE 94. 

 * BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES KEEPING ICY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

MIZ067-121800-
/O.EXT.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-140312T1800Z/
INGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LANSING
1157 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH 1 PM.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 
   MPH. 

 * ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR. 

IMPACTS...

 * VERY SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH POOR VISIBILITIES.

 * BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES KEEPING ICY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

WDM

126 
WWUS43 KGRR 121806
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
206 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

MIZ074-121915-
/O.EXP.KGRR.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140312T1800Z/
JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JACKSON
206 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED.

 * THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGED FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * SEND REPORTS TO NWS GRAND RAPIDS OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR 
   MORE INFORMATION. 

&&

$$

MIZ067-121915-
/O.EXP.KGRR.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-140312T1800Z/
INGHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...LANSING
206 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

 * SNOWFALL WAS MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE HOWEVER AS MUCH AS
   9 INCHES WAS REPORTED BETWEEN OSHTEMO AND AUGUSTA.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * SEND REPORTS TO NWS GRAND RAPIDS OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR 
   MORE INFORMATION. 

&&

$$


WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
258 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. MILD AIR STILL IN PLACE
TODAY WILL BE REPLACED BY COLDER AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE SNOW COMES TO AN END WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

MILD AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKER SYSTEM.
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WHEN THE WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS OBVIOUSLY CENTERED ON THE SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND ON WED. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
NORTHWARD TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD TREND IN MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARDS TO THIS
SYSTEM.

NOT TOO MANY IMPACTS TO THE AREA FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. THE INITIAL
PLAYER IN THE SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS IS EVIDENT ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR IN THE FORM OF THE ECHOES /MAINLY ALOFT/ TO OUR WEST.
THIS IS THE INITIAL AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN. IT IS MAINLY PRODUCING
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT OR SO PER THE OBS ACROSS WI. PLENTY OF DRIER
AIR BELOW IS PREVENTING PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THIS FGEN
WILL MOVE OVER THE CWFA TODAY.

IT WILL TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE PCPN REACH
THE GROUND. THIS IS WHEN ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP AS
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING LOW.
EVEN THEN THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...PCPN WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT. PCPN WILL START OUT AS MAINLY LIQUID EVERYWHERE...BEFORE
STARTING TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN
SOUTHWARD.

PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE NOTICEABLY TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT DOWN SOUTH. THIS OCCURS
AS THE INITIAL MID-LEVEL FGEN ACROSS WI IS DRIVEN SOUTH BY ENERGY
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTH QUICKLY FROM ITS CURRENT PLACEMENT ACROSS
NW CANADA. THIS WILL THEN PHASE WITH THE WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR
UT. THE TREND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA CAN
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE NRN STREAM SYSTEM DIRECTING THE UT WAVE A
SLIGHT BIT MORE NORTH. THE HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION
BAND THAT WAS ACROSS NRN IN AND OH NOW LOOKS TO INCH UP A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE CWFA.

WE BELIEVE THAT THIS LOOKS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE WATCH
AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR. FGEN BANDS ALWAYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
OVER-PERFORM A BIT...AND THIS SITUATION IS NO DIFFERENT. MODEL
X-SECTIONS DOWN SOUTH FROM THE PREFERRED GFS/EURO BLEND SHOW SOME
THETA E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT...INDICATING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF THE HEAVIER BANDS. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE PHASING
OF THE SYSTEMS OCCURRING NEARBY. THE BEST FORCING OCCURS JUST BELOW
THE DGZ DOWN SOUTH...WHICH COULD ALSO ASSIST IN SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMS. WE ARE SHYING AWAY FROM THE HEAVY 00Z NAM SNOW TOTALS AS THE
UPPER FEATURES SEEM TOO STRONG WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODELS.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WED AS THE SYSTEM PULLS NE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO WED
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. THESE WILL END AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR AS THE FLOW BECOMES NE/OFFSHORE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC RIDGING MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR A NEAR RECORD COLD NIGHT WED NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAKENING WINDS. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THU AS WE SEE WAA
ALOFT BUILD OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WILL WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING ALOFT
KEEPS CERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH FOR DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS MILD AND WET WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS
BRINGING A DEEP PHASED UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE AREA WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED AS MUCH BY THE 11/00Z
FIM...AND FORECAST CERTAINTY IN GENERAL DROPS OFF VERY QUICKLY 6
TO 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL COOL AND THE RAIN WILL SWITCH TO SNOW
AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THIS WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS INTO THE
IFR RANGE. THE STEADIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-94 TAF SITES
WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF WED...HOWEVER NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

RUNOFF IN THE UPPER TRIBUTARIES OF THE RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST MI IS
INCREASING AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S WHICH IS MELTING SOME
SNOW. WE HAVE SEEN SWE VALUES DROPPING OFF AT THE OBSERVATIONAL
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE...SO WATER
LEVELS WILL BE RISING AT THE GAGING SITES. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING IMPACTS FROM THIS RISE...HOWEVER WITH ICE IN THE RIVERS
THAT RAISES UNCERTAINTY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
WEEK. ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN FOR WED...WHICH SHOULD LOCK UP THE
RUNOFF FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ057>059-064>067-071-072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ073-074.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
639 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-
121045-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
639 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR WHERE 6 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR
BATTLE CREEK AND JACKSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED BY SNOW AND LIMITED
VISIBILITY FROM INTERSTATE 96 SOUTHWARD. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUKE