Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POP UP SATURDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BY TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS EVENING ISOLATED SVR STORM RISK WITH STRONGER CAPE LEADING TO
DEEPER CORES OF REFLECTIVITY. SHEAR IS WEAK. CELLS WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS...GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THERE IS ALSO ADDED LIFT FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 600 PM AS HEATING
DIMINISHES. WILL GO WITH AN EARLY EVENING PERIOD MENTIONING
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY IS SIMILAR TO TODAY MINUS THE LIFT. A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THE CELLS
WILL WEAKEN AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES AND THE INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES.  WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WARMER AIR ARRIVES AROUND 600 MB FOR SUNDAY. WITH SHOULD ACT TO
LIMIT THE RISK OF ANY STORMS. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY AND WE TSRA IN THE
GRIDS TO COVER THAT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER
THAT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS A CHANCE FROM YESTERDAY/S
MODEL RUNS. PREVIOUSLY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS REMAINING OVER THE
CWA WHICH NECESSITATED HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE CWA. WE/VE GOT LOWER
POPS NOW UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. CAN/T GO COMPLETELY DRY THOUGH AS
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND DOWN SOME SHORT WAVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT LOW LEVEL DRY CONDITIONS. THE PLAINS LOW THAT WAS PROGD OVER THE
NRN PLAINS IS NOW PROGD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH PLACES PCPN
FROM IT OVER ILLINOIS MIDWEEK INSTEAD OF LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL
HOLD IN THE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SCATTERED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A VCTS COMMENT IN THE TAFS EXCEPT AT KMKG
WHICH WILL BE IN THE LAKE SHADOW. PCPN WILL WANE TOWARD SUNSET.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT THE SRN TAF SITES
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

HAZY/LIGHT FOG SITUATION OVER THE LAKE...WILL CONTINUE. WEAK WINDS
SUPPORT LOW WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY UNDER 2 FEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

OTHER THAN A COUPLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THE WEATHER WILL BE
MAINLY DRY. RUNOFF WILL BE LIMITED DUE THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE
STORMS. THE ONLY REAL POTENTIAL IMPACT WOULD BE ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING IF A STORM HAPPENED TO STALL OVER A CITY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
504 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-020915-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
504 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF US-131. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY... THEN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LMZ844>849-020915-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
504 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREA OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
412 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             5 ENE WHITE CLOUD       43.60N 85.68W
08/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL THOUGH MOST HAIL WAS SMALLER.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
423 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MIZ072-012130-
KALAMAZOO-
423 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KALAMAZOO...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RICHLAND...           GALESBURG...          AUGUSTA...
  CLIMAX...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4220 8576 4241 8567 4242 8530 4217 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 274DEG 10KT 4231 8556

MJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
426 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MIZ051-057-012130-
KENT-MONTCALM-
426 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRUFANT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 8509 4321 8514 4329 8548 4341 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 274DEG 10KT 4332 8535

MJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
439 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             5 N BATH                42.89N 84.45W
08/01/2014  E0.50 INCH       CLINTON            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A MIX OF HALF INCH HAIL AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

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