Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

527 
WWUS53 KGRR 232238
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
638 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

MIC077-232249-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-140623T2300Z/
KALAMAZOO MI-
638 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR KALAMAZOO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4214 8576 4218 8577 4242 8540 4242 8530
      4207 8529 4207 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 232DEG 38KT 4237 8540 4228 8530

$$

LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
539 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS EVENING ARE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS ACROSS CASS COUNTY HAVE SHOWN
ROTATION IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WITH
BACKED SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

ALTHOUGH LCLS ARE LOW AND INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS...SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND STORM
ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN LACKING WITH THE PRIMARY MODE BEING
MULTICELL. WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH ANY UPDRAFTS FOR
ROTATION...ESPECIALLY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND
ORGANIZED.

WE WILL ALSO WATCH RAINFALL RATES AS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL
BE HIGH IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING
WITH SOME BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE A QUIET REST OF THE WEEK WITH HOTTER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVING BY THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

CONTINUING TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH FOCUS
IS MORE ON POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT VERSUS
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OCCURRED TODAY. INSTABILITY MAY STILL
DEVELOP IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE SUN...BUT NOT SURE LENGTHY
SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR. BEST SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE
SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES...OR ALLEGAN TO LANSING AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL TO SEE WHAT MAY WORK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...NOT MUCH SHEAR TO AID IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH SO STILL FEEL THAT
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND SECONDARY TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH FROM WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
MICHIGAN. SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE SLOW MOVING
SO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT REMAINS OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR
2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE OFF BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN APPEARING TO SEE LINGERING
SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A FEW
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT OVERALL A QUIET DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT RIDGE NEXT
WEEKEND.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM COMBINES WITH INSTABILITY TO BRING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STORM AT OUR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS (KAZO... KBTL AND KJXN).

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
DETERIORATE TO MAINLY IFR OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AS FOG GRADUALLY DISSIPATES AND CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT SEEM TO BE OF ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE SEEN SOME DECENT TOTALS IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MORNING ROUND OF THUNDERSHOWERS. AFTERNOON
STORMS WILL BE OF INTEREST MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE
SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AGAIN THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. AREAS THAT SEE ANY REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SEE
SOME RISES. THAT SAID...CURRENT LEVELS ARE STILL WELL BELOW ACTION
STAGE AND MAY BE ABLE TO CONSUME MUCH OF THE RUNOFF WITH THE TIME
THAT HAS BEEN ALLOTTED BETWEEN RECENT EVENTS.

A MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED MID WEEK BEFORE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. SO ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE A DECENT
RESPONSE TIME FOR RAINFALL THAT IS RECEIVED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...MACZKO
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...MACZKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
611 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-240830-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
611 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH
HAVEN TO LANSING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.
THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY. THE STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BECOME STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-240830-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
611 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS INTO TONIGHT. CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WEDNESDAY. THE STORMS ON SUNDAY COULD BECOME STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NJJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

MIZ071-072-232230-
KALAMAZOO-VAN BUREN-
500 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KEELER TO
HARTFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS...PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS. GO INDOORS IF THUNDER IS HEARD AND
STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8623 4224 8636 4225 8637
      4242 8628 4242 8530 4207 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 239DEG 19KT 4230 8627 4195 8598

OSTUNO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
607 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

MIZ071-072-232300-
KALAMAZOO-VAN BUREN-
607 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 606 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORTER TWP TO
SCHOOLCRAFT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SCHOOLCRAFT BY 615 PM EDT...
  PORTER TWP BY 605 PM EDT...
  PORTAGE BY 625 PM EDT...
  FULTON BY 635 PM EDT...
  GALESBURG BY 640 PM EDT...
  CLIMAX BY 645 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 8588 4236 8530 4207 8529 4207 8535
      4207 8582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 251DEG 31KT 4212 8576 4203 8568

OSTUNO