Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

395 
WWUS53 KGRR 210402
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1202 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

MIC015-025-045-210430-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-140521T0430Z/
BARRY MI-CALHOUN MI-EATON MI-
1202 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
EATON...NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230
AM EDT...

AT MIDNIGHT EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BURLEIGH
CORNERS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF 
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAILSTONES.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BELLEVUE...           BROOKFIELD...         OLIVET...
  CONVIS TWP...         LEE TWP...            ASSYRIA...
  BURLEIGH CORNERS...   PARTELLO...           ST MARYS LAKE...
  PENNFIELD...          RICE CREEK...         DUCK LAKE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 8521 4253 8519 4255 8470 4233 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 275DEG 27KT 4243 8507

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

JK

101 
WWUS53 KGRR 210427
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1227 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

MIC015-025-045-210436-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-140521T0430Z/
BARRY MI-CALHOUN MI-EATON MI-
1227 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN EATON...NORTHERN
CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4236 8521 4253 8519 4255 8470 4233 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 275DEG 27KT 4241 8482

$$

JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
853 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN IL INTO
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS OF 0030Z. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED UP
TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. INSTABILITY IS
LARGELY SURFACE BASED...BUT GIVEN THE STORM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WAS
MAINTAINING ITSELF...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO NOT IMPACT STORMS COMING ACROSS THE LAKE.

MLCAPE WAS OVER 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF I-96 AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE AROUND 50 KTS. ALL THIS POINTS TOWARD
THESE STORMS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AND COULD EVEN INTENSIFY ONCE
THEY COME ONSHORE....PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A BIV-LAN LINE. EVEN
THOUGH HAIL HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT SO FAR...WE MAY SEE THE
STORMS BECOME LINEAR AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME A HIGHER
THREAT LATER TONIGHT. HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FROM 03Z TO
12Z FOR THE GRR CWA. WE WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE THREAT OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN AS SOME OF THE CELL MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AROUND 1.3 INCHES. LOCALIZED 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD I-94.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE STORMS WILL REACH SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF JACKSON BY 8 AM
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FAIR WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE
TONIGHT AS 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
COMBINE TO ALLOW STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HIGH
WINDS AND HAIL. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR WITH SOME
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. TORNADO THREAT IS LOW GIVEN LATE NIGHT
TIMING BUT SOME QLCS TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVING AND RISING HEIGHTS AND SFC PRESSURE RIDGING
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR WX ALONG WITH A
MODERATING TREND OF TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE FRIDAY BUT WILL REACH THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE BY SUNDAY.

VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN TEMPS
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTORM AS EARLY AS MEMORIAL DAY AS
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO INCREASING MOISTURE INTO OUR
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT IN OUR REGION AS WELL.

HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP THEN OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODELS DEVELOPING IFR.

REGARDING THE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING STORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE
03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HAVE PREVAILING THUNDER AT THE I94 TAF
SITES WITH VCTS WORDING AT THE I96 TAF SITES. MUCH BETTER CHANCE
FOR STORMS TOWARDS I94. STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

REGARDING THE LOWER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT WENT A BIT
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DEVELOPING. THE FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE MORNING
AROUND 14Z OR 15Z. POSSIBILITY EXISTS THOUGH FOR MUCH LOWER
CONDITIONS AND WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN.
STORMS WILL END WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SAINT
JOSEPH...KALAMAZOO AND GRAND RIVER BASINS BUT BASIN AVERAGE
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAINSTEM RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-210930-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS MAINLY NEAR TO
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96 AND LAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE HIGH WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM NEAR LANSING
AND JACKSON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ844>849-210930-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID TO
LATE EVENING SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN. GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OSTUNO/LAURENS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1126 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HAIL             SOUTH HAVEN             42.40N 86.27W
05/20/2014  M0.25 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED BY WOOD TV. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM