Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
326 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

AN ACTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

THE SFC WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE I-96 CORRIDOR AT MID
AFTERNOON WITH SFC BASED CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG TO THE SOUTH.  LINE
OF CONVECTION WHICH MOVED EAST FROM WISCONSIN WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT COULD ALSO PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS AT TIMES.

ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING LEADING TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BASED ON UPSTREAM HEAVY RAIN REPORTS
AND JUICY AIRMASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND PWATS AROUND
1.5.

WHILE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THIS EVENING...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING OVERNIGHT COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE LIFTING NWD AND THE UPR RIDGE
IS BUILDING WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH.
HOWEVER THE CURRENT/ONGOING CONVECTION MAY KEEP THE WARM FRONT
SUPPRESSED SOUTH LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF OCNL STORMS WITH A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH THE CWFA. LOW RISK OF SVR WEATHER EXISTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA... MAINLY IN THE ERN CWFA WHERE BEST
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO FROPA.

MODELS CONSISTENT ON WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE FORMS AND MOVES NORTH
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT FROM THE TN VALLEY RGN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING LONG TERM FORECAST.  THURSDAY LOOKS
QUITE WET AS A SECONDARY WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT.  INCREASED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING RAIN THREAT.  SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S STILL LOOK LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN AS WE SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MAIN FROST THREAT SHOULD BE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-96 AS WE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TO SIMPLIFY THINGS I CARRIED VICINITY
THUNDER IN ALL THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AFTER
04-06Z FEEL THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AS INSTABILITY
LESSENS. DID NOT CARRY THUNDER IN THE TAFS BEYOND THIS POINT...BUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE AREA AS OF THIS
WRITING. EXPECT A DIURNAL IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MVFR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE EVENING...TOWARD 02Z. THERE COULD BE PATCHY IFR
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AND IF THIS DOES DEVELOP IT COULD
LINGER INTO MID DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

WARM/HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS MAY RESULT IN AREAS
OF FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

KGRR HAS RECEIVED 0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND KLAN
HAS RECEIVED AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL IMPACT THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR SO. THE MAIN HYDRO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN UP TO 70 IN GRAND RAPIDS...SO THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

THE DECLINE OF RIVER LEVELS HAS HALTED AND SOME RIVERS ARE ALREADY
ON THE RISE FROM TODAY'S RAINS. THERE IS ONE RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY
OUT CURRENTLY FOR THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE...BUT MORE
RIVERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXCEED BANKFULL. HYDRO CONCERNS ON AREA
RIVERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-
130900-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
500 AM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE BIGGEST THREATS ARE
HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             2 ENE ALASKA            42.85N 85.45W
05/12/2014  M0.50 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
339 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             2 WSW WAVERLY           42.73N 84.66W
05/12/2014  M0.25 INCH       EATON              MI   PUBLIC

            PEA-SIZE HAIL IN DELTA TWP

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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