Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
329 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER IN IOWA WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN COOLER AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH THE STORM COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HAIL SO FAR. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES EXIST...GENERALLY UNDER
8K FT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WITH LIFTED INDEX VALUES DOWN TO -3 TO -5 DEG C FROM NEAR MUSKEGON
EASTWARD TO LANSING. FURTHER NORTH...A RATHER STABLE AIRMASS EXISTS
AS SHOWN BY THE RECENT CMU SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE
STRONGEST STORMS SOUTH OF FREMONT TO MT PLEASANT LINE THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR WAS ADVECTING INTO FAR SW LOWER MI
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. BASED ON THIS IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTH OF A
MUSKEGON TO LANSING LINE. MODELS DO DEVELOP DECENT 0 TO 1 KM SRH
VALUES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BIG RAPIDS TO JACKSON
LINE.

WITH MID LEVEL NVA MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...I TONED BACK
POPS THEN. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE MUCH LESS IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY...EXISTS. IN ADDITION A STRONGER MID LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIKELY CAP THE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO THE -10 DEG C
LEVEL. THIS SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

A GENERAL TROUGHINESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK; WE'LL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S COURTESY OF H8 TEMPS NEAR 0C.

OCCLUDED LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL DRAG A POST FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH
THE CWA FRIDAY. THIS REPRESENTS OUR HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PCPN DURING
THE PERIOD. THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE FAIRLY LOW EXCEPT FOR LATE TUESDAY. THAT'S WHEN A STRONG WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH IN/IL. IT/S LIKELY WE'LL SEE
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

VIS LOOP SHOWS SW LWR MI CLEARING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
STRATOCU IS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. A FEW
STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED SW OF KMKG. THESE STORMS ARE
GENERALLY MOVING NORTH. HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. PCPN
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FOG ALONG THE LAKESHORE. WILL NOT GO WITH A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE GIVEN THE DRY SLOT HERE IN SW LOWER MI. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD END UP WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH
THU. THIS WOULD KEEP IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM ON LARGER RIVERS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MJS
SHORT TERM...MJS
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...MJS
MARINE...MJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
925 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-301030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
925 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM AROUND 200 PM THROUGH
1000 PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO
AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

RAINFALL TOTALS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
REACH THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THESE TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
SOME
LOCATIONS EXCEEDING BANKFULL AGAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ844>849-301030-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
925 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THIS MORNING INTO
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO IN EXCESS 50 MPH
POSSIBLE.  PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUKE MJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
419 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

MIZ056-057-064-292115-
ALLEGAN-KENT-OTTAWA-
419 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF MODERATE DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAND RAPIDS BY 435 PM EDT...
  HUDSONVILLE BY 420 PM EDT...
  GRANDVILLE BY 425 PM EDT...
  WYOMING BY 430 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4313 8578 4289 8559 4272 8584 4281 8596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 224DEG 43KT 4283 8580

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
445 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             1 S SPARTA              43.15N 85.71W
04/29/2014  M0.75 INCH       KENT               MI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED A REPORT OF HAIL
            CURRENTLY FALLING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
450 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             1 S SPARTA              43.15N 85.71W
04/29/2014  M1.00 INCH       KENT               MI   EMERGENCY MANAGER

            RELAYED REPORT FROM THE SOUTH END OF SPARTA

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
458 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 NNW KENT CITY         43.26N 85.77W
04/29/2014  M0.25 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZE HAIL

&&

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
IRIS SYSTEM

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