Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

002 
WWUS53 KGRR 261950
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MIC075-262015-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-140826T2015Z/
JACKSON MI-
350 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 347 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRASS 
LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JACKSON...            GRASS LAKE...         WATERLOO TWP...
  MICHIGAN CENTER...    NAPOLEON...           LEONI...
  MUNITH...             RIVES JUNCTION...     PLEASANT LAKE...
  WATERLOO...           TRIST...              FRANCISCO...
  NORVELL...            NAPOLEON ARPT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 8413 4224 8449 4242 8447 4243 8414
      4230 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 267DEG 38KT 4230 8423

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

024 
WWUS53 KGRR 262006
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
406 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MIC075-262014-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-140826T2015Z/
JACKSON MI-
406 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE 
BEFORE 430 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 4211 8413 4224 8449 4242 8447 4243 8414
      4230 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 267DEG 38KT 4231 8402

$$

TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
135 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM HOLLAND TO LANSING. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER IT WILL TURN WARMER AND MORE
HUMID VERY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND MOVE
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-96 NEXT FEW HOURS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED BY LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FCST AREA FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE FRONTAL TIMING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL COME LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON OVER OUR SE FCST
AREA NEAR TO MAINLY JUST SE OF KGRR OVER TOWARD LAN... BTL... AND
JXN. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SB CAPE VALUES TO REACH
2500-3000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY 00Z NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE.

THE SEVERE WX THREAT TODAY IS FAIRLY LOW IN SPITE OF THE
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAINLY BECAUSE OF WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FROM THE FRONT. EVEN
SO CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATE SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR SE FCST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY FOR TONIGHT AFTER
FROPA WITH DRY WX ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. PCPN TIED TO THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

OVERALL MODEL CONTINUITY IS FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IS SOLUTIONS OUT ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THOUGH. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF HAS IT HAS
HAD MUCH BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY. ALSO THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONVERGING TOWARDS ITS SOLUTIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THOUGH GIVEN THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MODELS.

THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL BE OSCILLATING THROUGH THE AREA ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME. A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COOL FRONT STALLING OUT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN PIVOTS A LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
MONDAY. HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS RIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINS ARE A DEFINITE POTENTIAL GIVEN
THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. WPC QPF FOR THE LONG TERM IS ON
THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 ON MOST DAYS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 20Z...AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR DURING STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG WILL POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS TODAY BEFORE A
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1101 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY PRIMARILY EAST OF US-131. THESE
STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WIDESPREAD
HYDRO IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
607 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-271015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
607 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF
A MUSKEGON TO MT. PLEASANT LINE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND HAIL TO NEAR THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO A
THREAT TODAY. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK
THROUGH ABOUT 800 PM.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT
900 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-271015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
607 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF MUSKEGON. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ALONG WITH HAIL

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OUT ON THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
233 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE JENISON            42.90N 85.81W
08/26/2014  M1.10 INCH       OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL OVER LAST HOUR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     FLOOD            4 E GRAND VALLEY        42.97N 85.79W
08/26/2014                   OTTAWA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING AT 1ST ST NEAR
            LAKE MICHIGAN DRIVE. ESTIMATED TO BE SEVERAL
            INCHES DEEP.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
254 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BYRON CENTER            42.81N 85.72W
08/26/2014  M0.90 INCH       KENT               MI   PUBLIC

            FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW CASCADE           42.90N 85.51W
08/26/2014  M0.75 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
307 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S IONIA               42.94N 85.06W
08/26/2014  M40 MPH          IONIA              MI   AWOS

            REPORTED AT IONIA COUNTY AIRPORT

&&

REPORTED AT IONIA COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
310 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE CHARLOTTE         42.57N 84.81W
08/26/2014  M45 MPH          EATON              MI   AWOS

            REPORTED AT FITCH BEACH AIRPORT IN CHARLOTTE

&&