Small Craft Advisory 29, NWS Green Bay, WI

183 
WHUS73 KGRB 211504
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1004 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...

.BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND USHER IN
A COOLER AIRMASS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL CREATE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY EVENING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

LMZ521-522-541>543-212315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0029.140422T0000Z-140422T2100Z/
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY WI TO TWO RIVERS WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1004 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON 
  TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
BERSCH

467 
WHUS73 KGRB 212104
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
404 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...

.BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND USHER IN
A COOLER AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL CREATE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY EVENING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

LMZ521-522-541>543-220515-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0029.140422T0000Z-140422T2100Z/
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY WI TO TWO RIVERS WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
404 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WAVES...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT AND 2 TO 4 FEET ON 
  TUESDAY. 

* WAVES OMITTED ON THE BAY...AS IT REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

676 
WHUS73 KGRB 220229
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
929 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...

. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

LMZ521-522-541>543-221030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-140422T2100Z/
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY WI TO TWO RIVERS WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
929 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
  KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT ON THE LAKE.

* WAVES OMITTED ON THE BAY...AS IT REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

344 
WHUS73 KGRB 221001
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
501 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...

. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-221815-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-140422T2100Z/
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY WI TO TWO RIVERS WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
501 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
  KNOTS THROUGH AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT ON THE LAKE.

* WAVES OMITTED ON THE BAY...AS IT REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

853 
WHUS73 KGRB 221510
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1010 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...

.GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-222100-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-140422T2100Z/
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY WI TO TWO RIVERS WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
1010 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
  THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* WAVES...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIMIT WAVES TO 1 TO 3 FT ON LAKE
  MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHER WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. THE BAY
  REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
BERSCH

983 
WHUS73 KGRB 222100
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

.NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-222200-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SC.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-140422T2100Z/
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF LINE FROM OCONTO WI TO LITTLE
STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY WI TO TWO RIVERS WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS WI TO SHEBOYGAN WI-
400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THUS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM.

$$
ECKBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1055 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TRYING TO DECIPHER TIMING OF PCPN BANDS TNGT AND MON CONT TO BE
THE BIGGEST FCST ISSUE TO DEAL WITH. TEMPS AND THUNDER THREAT ALSO
HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM S-CNTRL MN NE THRU N-CNTRL WI INTO CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR. ONE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NE NEBRASKA...WHILE TWO
OTHER SFC LOWS WERE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. VSBL SATL
IMAGERY INDICATED A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS STRETCHED FROM NE IA
NEWD INTO SE ONTARIO. RADAR MOSAIC HAD PICKED UP A BAND OF SHWRS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS (PSBL TSTM) ACTIVITY TO BE ALONG THIS
STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI TNGT. OVERALL FORCING AND
LIFT REMAIN MARGINAL...BUT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE TO BE MAXIMIZED. FORCING DOES
INCREASE A BIT LATER TNGT AS A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY. N-CNTRL WI COULD VERY
WELL STAY DRY TNGT...BUT THIS LEADS TO FOG POTENTIAL DUE TO
MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW...LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. QUITE A CONTRAST IN TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT WITH THE
NORTHWOODS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S...WHILE SRN SECTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA MAY NOT FALL BELOW 50 DEGS.

SHWR/ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONT THRU AT LEAST MON MORNING OVER
THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHIFTS
TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES
INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WI...DISPLACE THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR THE PCPN. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE SHWRS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVER N-CNTRL WI/PARTS OF CNTRL WI BEHIND THE CDFNT.
INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MARGINAL ON MON WITH CAPES PUSHING 500
J/KG OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING IN THE FCST. MILD START TO THE DAY WL STILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 60S (50S LAKESIDE) EVEN AS WINDS TURN NW
AND WEAK CAA STARTS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION...AFTER A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING WITH A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM...DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
CONCERN THEN TURNS TO MID WEEK WITH A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE ISSUES INCREASE FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY. COOL NIGHT
IN STORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS.

PROGS CONTINUE TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL WAA AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING SOME COOL DRY AIR OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR A
POSSIBLE MIX EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT POTENTIAL TOO SMALL AT THIS
TIME TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE OUT FOR THESE
UPPER SYSTEMS DUE TO HAIL POTENTIAL FROM LOW WET BULB PARAMETERS.
WHILE LI/S APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...GFS TOTAL TOTALS NEAR THE
MID 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD OR OCCLUDED
FRONT. LATEST ECMWF CONFINES BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. EACH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PCPN FOR LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. A H850 WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
PCPN SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE
WORKING NORTHWARD INTO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE PCPN TYPE ISSUES LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRA ACRS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA HAVE INCREASED DURING THE
PAST COUPLE HRS. ISOLD TSRA ALSO LIKELY TO MV ACRS THE S. THAT TREND
SHOULD CONT OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN
TOMORROW MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
TOMORROW AFTN OVER THE E. WL WORK THESE TRENDS INTO THE NEW TAFS.
PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING...WITH VSBYS
OCCASIONALLY DOWN INTO THE LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORY AT SOME SPOTS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-211945-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
241 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON MONDAY...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-211945-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
241 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

AK/TH