Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Green Bay, WI

522 
WWUS53 KGRB 012109
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
409 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIC139-012145-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-140801T2145Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-
409 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
WINNEBAGO COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 407 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF OSHKOSH...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
WINNEBAGO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...LAKE BUTTE DES
MORTS AND HIGHLAND SHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4419 8871 4412 8848 4400 8862 4414 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 311DEG 8KT 4411 8862

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

ALLEN

705 
WWUS53 KGRB 012126
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
426 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIC139-012136-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-140801T2145Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-
426 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WINNEBAGO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4419 8871 4412 8848 4400 8862 4414 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 311DEG 8KT 4409 8858

$$

ALLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
307 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

BORDERLINE SVR STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...
EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS/
TSTMS ON SAT WL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE PATTERN FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK HI PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE
NRN GREAT LAKES...A COUPLE AREAS OF VERY WEAK LOW PRES WERE
SITUATED OVER WI...AND OTHER WEAK HI PRES SYSTEMS WERE LOCATED
OVER ND AND IA. A CLOSER LOOK INTO WI ALSO INDICATED A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL WI SEPARATING DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
FROM MORE MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH. IT IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
TSTMS CONT TO DEVELOP WITH THE HELP OF CAPES PUSHING 2K J/KG AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

CURRENT SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI WL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. UNTIL THEN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG ENUF TO PRODUCE PENNY-SIZE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE THE PCPN ENDS...WEAK HI PRES OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY
WHERE HEAVIER PCPN FELL. NO HEADLINES FOR FOG...BUT ANTICIPATE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WL BE POSSIBLE LATE TNGT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
COMPARABLE TO LAST NGT WITH MID TO UPR 40S NORTH...MID TO UPR 50S
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

UPR HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS WI ON SAT IN RESPONSE TO THE
STUBBORN HUDSON BAY UPR LOW PULLING FARTHER NE. THE AIR MASS OVER
WI WL NOT BE AS COOL ALOFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...
HOWEVER MDLS STILL SHOW CAPE VALUES PUSHING 1K J/KG OVER CNTRL WI
BY SAT AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO NOT AS STEEP AND
THERE IS NOT ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES DROPPING THRU THE REGION.
THEREFORE...PCPN COVERAGE ON SAT TO BE LESS THAN TODAY AND FOCUSED
PRIMARILY OVER CNTRL WI. MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN BE A FEW DEGS EITHER
SIDE OF 80 DEGS...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE MI WHERE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WEAK UPPER RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS NOW PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TO PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK WHEN A
SYSTEM COMES BY IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.

THE TREND THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN TO KEEP A BIG HUDSON BAY TO GREAT
LAKES SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL LAKE TEMPERATURES. SO IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A
GENERALLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK
WORK PROVIDING THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WE WL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND THEN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG LATE TNGT. MUCH AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...DAYTIME HEATING HAD COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPES BETWEEN 1K AND 2K J/JG
AND A SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY TO GENERATE TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NE WI.
SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO ROTATE.
INSTEAD...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT...EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO
ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS. THE PRECIPITATION WL DISSIPATE MID TO LATE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...LEAVING DECREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE PRECIPITATION AND THE FOG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KALLAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-022015-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SMALL HAIL AND LOCAL FLOODING MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-022015-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
312 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM
ALGOMA SOUTH. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

PATCHY DENSE MARINE FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND AGAIN
SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE.

PATCHY FOG OR HAZE CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES ON LAKE MICHIGAN.

AK/RDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             4 N IOLA                44.56N 89.11W
08/01/2014  E0.88 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WIZ020-021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074-012130-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-
OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KESHENA...WAUSAU...WISCONSIN RAPIDS...
STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...
CHILTON...CRIVITZ
233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

AT 230 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERRILL...TO ANTIGO...TO
MENOMINEE.

UP TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER OF THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS TO BE BLOWN OVER. STAY
AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. IF A STORM
APPROACHES YOUR AREA...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THE STORM HAS PASSED.

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
323 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             STRATFORD               44.79N 90.08W
08/01/2014  E0.50 INCH       MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN 1/2 INCH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     HAIL             NEENAH                  44.18N 88.44W
08/01/2014  E0.75 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
332 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             WINCHESTER              44.20N 88.66W
08/01/2014  E1.75 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
349 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             STEVENS POINT           44.51N 89.56W
08/01/2014  E0.88 INCH       PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&