Alert archive / Wisconsin / Flood Watches in 2014
Flood Watch 2, NWS Green Bay, WI
NWS Green Bay, WI issued this flood watch at Sep 8, 2014, 2:59 PM CDT for 22 counties in Wisconsin. It took effect at Sep 9, 2014, 10:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 17 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 8, 2014, 2:59 PM CDT (19:59 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 9, 2014, 10:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Sep 10, 2014, 3:06 PM CDT
- In force
- 17 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Green Bay, WI
- Flood severity
- None
All 22 counties
Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -70 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1333 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 70 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
981 WGUS63 KGRB 081959 FFAGRB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 259 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 ...A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY COULD RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 3.00 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEKS RAINFALL EVENT...A FEW INCHES OF RAIN MAY PUSH RIVER LEVELS BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TUESDAY ON THE WISCONSIN RIVER AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS RELEASING WATER. ALL SHOULD LISTEN TO LATER FORECASTS. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074-090400- /O.NEW.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE- SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...CRIVITZ 259 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE AND WOOD. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE... FOREST...KEWAUNEE...MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO...OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * BETWEEN 1.50 INCHES TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER AN AREA WHERE MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH FROM A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATE LAST WEEK. URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH CAN PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS DUE TO WATER RELEASE AT HYDRO PLANTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ TH/MPC/AA
9 follow-up statements
053 WGUS63 KGRB 090206 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 906 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEKS RAINS...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TUESDAY ON THE WISCONSIN RIVER AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS RELEASING WATER. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074-091000- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE- SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...CRIVITZ 906 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE AND WOOD. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST... KEWAUNEE...MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL LAST WEEK...SO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS DUE TO WATER RELEASE AT HYDRO PLANTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ SKOWRONSKI
524 WGUS63 KGRB 090936 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 436 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEKS RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TUESDAY ON THE WISCONSIN RIVER AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS RELEASING WATER. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074-091745- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE- SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...CRIVITZ 436 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE AND WOOD. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST... KEWAUNEE...MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * MOST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE 1.0 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL LAST WEEK... SO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS DUE TO WATER RELEASE AT HYDRO PLANTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ AK
278 WGUS63 KGRB 091626 FFAGRB URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1126 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STILL REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEKS RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN LATER TODAY ON THE WISCONSIN RIVER AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS RELEASING WATER. WIZ045-048>050-100030- /O.EXB.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0300Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON... TWO RIVERS 1126 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS EXPANDED THE * FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WAUSHARA. IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CALUMET... MANITOWOC AND WINNEBAGO. * FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE. URBAN FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074-100030- /O.EXT.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0300Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE- SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...CRIVITZ 1126 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE AND WOOD. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST... KEWAUNEE...MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MANY STREAMS AND RIVERS REMAIN HIGH FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT FELL LAST WEEK...SO THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. URBAN FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE RAINFALL ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS DUE TO WATER RELEASE AT HYDRO PLANTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ MPC/TH
054 WGUS63 KGRB 091703 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STILL REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEKS RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-100115- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0300Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE... WAUSHARA AND WOOD. IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CALUMET... MANITOWOC AND WINNEBAGO. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST...KEWAUNEE... MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING...CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE. URBAN FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ TH/MPC
021 WGUS63 KGRB 092102 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-100615- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0300Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 402 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE... WAUSHARA AND WOOD. IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CALUMET... MANITOWOC AND WINNEBAGO. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST...KEWAUNEE... MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOWLAND. URBAN FLOODING AND BASEMENT FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ JKL
497 WGUS63 KGRB 100246 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-101000- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.140910T0300Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE... WAUSHARA AND WOOD. IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CALUMET... MANITOWOC AND WINNEBAGO. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST...KEWAUNEE... MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * A WIDESPREAD 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. * RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOWLAND. URBAN FLOODING AND BASEMENT FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ JKL
956 WGUS63 KGRB 100932 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 432 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS MORNING... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING... BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE STEADY SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ISOLATED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN. AROUND AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-101745- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 432 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MARATHON...PORTAGE... WAUSHARA AND WOOD. IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CALUMET... MANITOWOC AND WINNEBAGO. IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...BROWN...DOOR...FLORENCE...FOREST...KEWAUNEE... MENOMINEE...NORTHERN MARINETTE...NORTHERN OCONTO... OUTAGAMIE...SHAWANO...SOUTHERN MARINETTE...SOUTHERN OCONTO AND WAUPACA. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING TOTALS INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE NORTH...ONE-HALF TO 1 INCH RANGE SOUTH. * RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOWLAND. URBAN FLOODING AND BASEMENT FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ AK
790 WGUS63 KGRB 101546 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL FALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED 1 INCH AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. ANOTHER HALF INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO ALREADY HIGH FLOWS ON AREA RIVERS FROM LAST WEEK'S RAINS... THE ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD PUSH RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WIZ013-020>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-101700- /O.CAN.KGRB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN MARINETTE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON- SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA- WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...WAUSAU... WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY... ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON...TWO RIVERS...CRIVITZ 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS SHOW AROUND A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAS FALLEN SO FAR OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXITING CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...THE RISK OF FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. $$ WIZ005-010>012-018-019-110000- /O.CON.KGRB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... LANGLADE...LINCOLN...ONEIDA AND VILAS. IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...FLORENCE AND FOREST. * UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING * AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WOULD BRING TOTALS INTO THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. * RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RISE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LANDS. URBAN FLOODING AND BASEMENT FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ MPC
375 WGUS63 KGRB 102006 FFAGRB FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 306 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN... .HEAVY RAIN FROM THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE DIMINISHING AT THE SAME TIME. THOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...FLOODING OF LOW LANDS NEAR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. WIZ005-010>012-018-019-102115- /O.CAN.KGRB.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140911T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO 306 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. AREAS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAVE RECEIVED FROM ONE INCH TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER...AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. $$ MPC
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 8, 2:51 PM CDT, 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 8, 2:51 PM CDT, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST NORTHEAST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING NORTHEAST FROM AMERY TO PHILLIPS. DRY AIR HAS IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS SO FAR TODAY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING FOR LIGHT RAIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE HIGH CLOUD BASES. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXIST BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. THEN THERE IS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA BY MID-EVENING. DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE SHORTWAVE WILL OUTRUN THE MOISTURE AXIS BELOW 700MB...AND AM COUNTING ON THE DRY AIR BELOW THIS LEVEL TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AS SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES...BUT MODELS ALSO PROJECT AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AND PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY ABOVE 850MB OVERNIGHT. WILL BACK OFF ON THE CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WEAK THETAE ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY ABOVE 850MB. WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO TAKE PLACE FOR THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR...STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD IMPROVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. ML CAPES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY REACH UP TO 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 20-25 KTS. CANNOT FIND MUCH OF A CAP BY 21Z...SO THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT DEVELOP IF INSTABILITY REACHES ITS POTENTIAL. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 PRIMARY FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW TRACKING OVER THE STATE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO A VERY MOIST 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN STARTING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. JUST ABOUT ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND ANTICIPATED AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY RAISE LEVELS TO FLOOD STAGE. THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO AS HIGH AS 3.00 INCHES CONTINUES TO INCREASE. LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO STORMS COULD INCREASE THE IMPACTS OF THE FLOODING ALONG THE RIVERS AS WELL AS FOR URBAN AREAS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH THE FLOOD WATCH VARIETY FOR NOW DUE TO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL OF THE RIVER FLOODING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SHOT OF BLUSTERY FALL WINDS WILL POUR INTO THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. COOLER DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LIKELY CHANCE OF THE FIRST FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINE OF THE SEASON FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GENERATE LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PLENTY OF DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE RHI TAF...AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE REGARDLESS. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE EXITS LATE IN THE EVENING...MODELS DEPICT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHEAST THAT COULD CREATE BKN MVFR CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING THE MOISTURE...HOWEVER...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW AGAIN THAT WE WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. LEFT A SCT MENTION TO INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE LOW CIGS AROUND LATE TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS DO NOT FORM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 GUSTY SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA... GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN ANTICIPATION FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.50 TO NEARLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE WATCH WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE AREA WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK AND WHERE RIVER LEVELS AND STREAMS REMAIN QUITE HIGH. SHOULD NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TUESDAY EVENING...MINOR FLOODING MAY ACTUALLY START TUESDAY DUE TO HYDRO OPERATIONS RELEASING WATER EARLY IN ADVANCE OF THE HEAVY RAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...RUNOFF EFFECTS INTO AREA RIVES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AND IF THE SCENARIO PANS OUT...WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE GOING INTO AFFECT. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-073-074. && SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......TDH AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........TDH HYDROLOGY......TDH
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 8, 2:55 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 255 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-092000- VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE- WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET- MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- 255 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH A STRONG STORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. RIVER LEVELS ARE RUNNING HIGH FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENT SEVERAL DAYS AGO. IF THE PROJECTED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOOD LEVELS MAY START TO BE REACHED TUESDAY ON THE WISCONSIN RIVER BEFORE THE RAINFALL DUE TO WATER RELEASE AT HYDRO PLANTS. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE URBAN STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. LMZ521-522-541>543-092000- THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN- 255 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW. AS THE LOW DEPARTS...GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MPC/TH
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Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.