Wind Advisory 26, NWS Goodland, KS

348 
WWUS73 KGLD 080252
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
852 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

COZ092-KSZ027>029-041-042-080400-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-140508T0300Z/
CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEYENNE WELLS...SHARON SPRINGS...
OAKLEY...QUINTER...TRIBUNE...LEOTI
852 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014 /952 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE DECREASED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING TROUGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTCENTRAL COLORADO ACROSS THE TRI STATE
REGION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THIS FEATURE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
KS HAS BEEN BACKING UP TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.

PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT AND INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TIMING AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF CLOSED H5/H7 LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY/TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE WIDE RANGING IMPACTS DEPENDING ON ALL OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VARIANCES ON BOTH OUR RFW...A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SO MUCH SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS
FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR NORTH ALL I WAS UNCOMFORTABLE DOING MORE THAN
NUDGING TOWARDS THE LATEST BLENDS/NAM TRENDS. THIS PUTS THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA. REGARDING THE CURRENT RFW AND POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY...CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO MAKE HIGHLIGHT CHANGES.
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES WE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH (I-70
CORRIDOR) BEFORE ANY PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TRANSITION NORTH
AND WEST. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED ON REAL TIME DATA AND NEW RUNS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE TO GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

AS UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS EAST A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH SOUTH
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BESIDES
COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...THIS FEATURE COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE INITIAL UPPER
LOW. I USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPS THROUGH FRI AND LINGERED POPS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LIFT/MOISTURE ALONG FRONT AND
ASSOCIATE WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE 30S...AND ACTUALLY WITHIN
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL RUNS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
ENSUING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THIS WEATHER MAKING SYSTEM SHOULD
AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME. MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY...BUT THE GEM MODEL HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM BECOMING
CUT OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST AS THE ECMWF...GFS AND DGEX FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY IF
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES CUT OFF...WHICH WILL AID IN MORE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS PLACE THE GREATEST
MID AND LOWER LEVEL JET SPEEDS AND HIGHEST AREAS OF INSTABILITY WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PERIOD FOR GREATEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH PATTERN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SPAN
DURING THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME SPOTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

EARLY IN THE TAF PERIODS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD TO VIS VARYING FROM 4-7SM OVER NW KS
AND SW NE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MVFR VIS
IN TAF...SO LIMITED VIS RESTRICTION TO 6SM AS THIS LIGHT FOG IS
FAIRLY PATCHY. AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AT KGLD AND
AROUND 20-25KT AT MCK. A LOT OF SPREAD ON GUIDANCE ON TIMING OF
THIS FRONT AND A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FOR NOW SHOWED
WIND SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST
NAM/RAP. WITH SLOWER WARM FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN INITIATION OR COVERAGE TO ADD MENTION TO
TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
     MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
309 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
309 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2014 /409 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF A
LENORA KANSAS TO FLAGLER COLORADO LINE...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 70
MIDDAY AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN
TRANSITION NORTHWARD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT MAY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH FROST POSSIBLE AT SHELTERED LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DR