Wind Advisory 17, NWS Goodland, KS

721 
WWUS73 KGLD 071610
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014



COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-027-041-042-NEZ079-080000-
/O.CON.KGLD.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-140408T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-WALLACE-GREELEY-
WICHITA-DUNDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND...SHARON SPRINGS...
TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN
1010 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014 /1110 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

* PEAK WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING/DURATION...NOW THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS MAY AFFECT
TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY LIGHT WEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BE
PREPARED FOR SUDDEN WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOSS OF
VEHICLE CONTROL.

&&

$$

443 
WWUS73 KGLD 080000
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014


COZ090>092-KSZ001-013-027-041-042-NEZ079-080100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-140408T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-SHERMAN-WALLACE-GREELEY-
WICHITA-DUNDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...BURLINGTON...
CHEYENNE WELLS...ST. FRANCIS...GOODLAND...SHARON SPRINGS...
TRIBUNE...LEOTI...BENKELMAN
600 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014 /700 PM CDT MON APR 7 2014/

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014

SATELLITE AND PV ANALYSIS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM 12Z
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE IN THIS AIR MASS. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS
SHOWING NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES THROUGH MID LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING IN ADDITION TO KEEPING AROUND SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE.

ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE AREA AND IS ABOUT HALF WAY
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS INDICATING
THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL END UP BEING DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS BY LATE THIS MORNING. SMALL SCALE OUTPUT IS ALSO
GENERATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. LAST FEW HOURS THIS HAS BEEN
CONFIRMED BY THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING PER THE WEATHERBUG INTERNET SITE. MODELS
SHOWING THAT AREA OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SOME
INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE IN THE EASTERN HALF AND HAVE
TIERED POPS IN THAT MANNER.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THEN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...STRONG JET/LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/PV ANOMALY BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH. PROBLEM IS THAT MOISTURE
IS MOSTLY IN THE MID LEVELS AND NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT AND THE LAPSE RATES...WILL PUT
IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
EASTERN HALF. THERE WILL BE SOME A BRIEF MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE WESTERN PORTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

THEN THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW STRONG DUE THE WINDS GET BEHIND
THE ABOVE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH. NUMERICAL OUTPUT/LOCAL WIND
PROGRAM IS SHOWING NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUFKIT WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DID NOT PUT IN ADVISORY
WINDS/ISSUE AN ADVISORY...DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION...
DESPITE THE DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. ALSO CLOUD COVER ALOFT LOOKS
TO INCREASE AND MAY LIMIT THE MIXING AS WELL. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT TO
THIS. IF THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY OR VIRGA CAN MIX WINDS
DOWN TO THE GROUND WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS AT WHERE THE
MODELS COULD MIX. NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER CLOSE LOOK
AT THIS.

DUE TO THE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...
CHOSE TO GO TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT MON APR 7 2014

THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT
WEATHER MAKER FOR THE AREA WILL COME NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR SATURDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE PLAINS. THE
SECOND TROUGH AXIS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.
MAIN UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET AND VORTICITY VALUES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WOULD INDICATE CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL LIFT AND
INSTABILITY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPARK THUNDERSTORMS WITH GOOD CAPE
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL THETA E VALUES. CURRENT MODEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONGEST STORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE MORE
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT SOME SORT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...A COLD SURGE OF AIR ALOFT COULD BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS FOR MANY CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST LOCATIONS. NO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS TO
THE GROUND. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY ONCE LIFT SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN APR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. NORTH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT BOTH SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
314 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
314 AM MDT SUN APR 6 2014 /414 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.