Tornado Warning 25, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  CAPE VALUES WILL REACH 3000J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING.  SHEAR
WILL VARY FROM AROUND 20KTS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO 25 TO 35 IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ON SUNDAY CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 800 TO 1400J/KG
WITH SHEAR OF 20 TO 25KTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RANGE FROM 1.00
TO 1.40 WITH STORM MOTION OF 15 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO HAVE DISSIPATED BUT EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH IN
EASTERN COLORADO. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT STORM
MOVEMENT IS FAST ENOUGH TO MODERATE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. PLAN
TO GO WITH A CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN COLORADO.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FA. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
SO HAVE INCLUDED IT INTO THE GRIDS.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

ANY STORMS MIGRATING EAST FROM THE FRONT RANGE/PALMER DIVIDE WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
QUICKLY DIMINISHING INSTABILITY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS PERIOD AND WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT
ONLY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED...AGAIN
CONFINED MAINLY TO EASTERN COLORADO. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN LATE WEEK AND WITH DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE RIDGE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH SITES BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THE FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KMCK INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG AT KMCK. VISIBILITY AND CIGS AT
KMCK MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101345-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
220 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014 /320 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW
THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

COZ091-092-092130-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
243 PM MDT SAT AUG 9 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 240 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BETHUNE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 10261 3937 10236 3905 10205 3900 10205
      3886 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 321DEG 17KT 3920 10241

BULLER