Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION/BACK DOOR FRONT WITH UPPER 50 DEW POINTS WELL INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. MODEL SIGNALS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MERGE INTO A
CLUSTER OR LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS AS LINE ORGANIZES. POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES EXISTS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL END
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AROUND MID DAY. RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE TOP EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HOLDING THEM DOWN A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE FORECAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHEAST.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
AREA BEFORE FLATTENING A BIT THURSDAY. WITH MODEST DISCREPANCIES
TIED TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT
MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE AREA MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO POP/WX
FORECAST.

BASED ON GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF COLORADO WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A
LINE OR CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH LOW CEILINGS...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REDEVELOP WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF FLIGHT
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081815-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
143 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014 /243 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
SLOW MOVING STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE  AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
457 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-NEZ079-072330-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-SHERMAN-YUMA COUNTY-
457 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DUNDY COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 445 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF
ALVIN TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF ST. FRANCIS TO KANORADO TO 15 MILES NORTH
OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH...BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND BLOWING DUST ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10204 4035 10133 4001 10132 4000 10141
      3914 10139 3913 10205 3905 10205 3906 10263
      3944 10234 3978 10224 4044 10230 4045 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 274DEG 32KT 4032 10173 3955 10172
          3928 10184 3902 10219

HUSTED