Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FEATURE NEAR THE COLORADO-KANSAS STATE LINE WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODEST INSTABILITY BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY YIELD A
FEW STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT RATHER LOW.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ENDING BY AROUND 12Z.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY
BUT A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS IN
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY NORTH
OF A YUMA TO HILL CITY LINE...WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
CONTINUES TO BE LESS THAN 20KTS SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 700MB IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT THE ECMWF/GFS/SREF BRING INTO THE WESTERN
1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN EAST/NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. GOOD DYNAMICS AND RIGHT REAR PORTION OF UPPER JET
SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
DECREASING THEM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND AND POSSIBLY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SO CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FOR FRIDAY HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
OVER THE AREA WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWEST TO NEW
MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION
DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH
THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SHIFTING TO KMCK AFTER 06Z.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD AND KMCK FROM 01Z-
04Z...AND KEEP A CHANCE FOR KMCK FROM 04Z- 08Z. RADAR IS DEPICTING
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...SO SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AS BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MENTZER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
250 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014 /350 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THE
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

NEZ079-052245-
DUNDY-
414 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 412 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ENDERS TO PARKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10139 4002 10158 4001 10190 4035 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 219DEG 9KT 4035 10159 4006 10175

ROBINSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
434 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

KSZ001-NEZ079-052245-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-
534 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DUNDY
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARKS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4005 10158 3993 10162 3993 10185 4006 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 266DEG 5KT 3999 10175

ROBINSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

KSZ001-NEZ079-052315-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-
548 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DUNDY
COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARKS...OR NEAR PARKS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 10159 3990 10159 3989 10190 4005 10188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 246DEG 3KT 3998 10179

ROBINSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
519 PM MDT TUE AUG 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W PARKS               40.04N 101.77W
08/05/2014  M1.20 INCH       DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
609 PM MDT TUE AUG 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HEAVY RAIN       19 N PARKS              40.31N 101.73W
08/05/2014  M1.02 INCH       DUNDY              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAIN FELL IN 30 MINUTES. 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL ALSO
            COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
641 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

COZ091-092-KSZ013-027-060115-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-SHERMAN-WALLACE-
641 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 636 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTH OF
KANORADO TO 13 MILES NORTH OF FIRSTVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT RURAL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KIT CARSON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY AND NORTHWEST WALLACE COUNTY.
PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 10157 3895 10204 3895 10271 3922 10234
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 270DEG 10KT 3918 10206 3901 10255

ROBINSON