Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE ON A LINE FROM YUMA TO
OAKLEY.  THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE WAS SPARKING CONVECTION STRONG
ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP IN PLACE...AND ALLOWING FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS TO OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. DUE TO
CONVECTION...MOSTLY TO OVERCAST SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS.  ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
COLORADO...SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST TO ALLOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED JET SPEEDS WILL RIDE
ALONG A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER RIDGE FLOW ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA.  FAVORABLE 500 MB JET POSITION WILL CLIP MORE OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA...SO CONCENTRATION OF
POPS WILL BE FOCUSED THERE.  HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWER LEVEL JET POSITION WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LEFT EXIT
REGION CLIPS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  OTHER THAN THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE...AREAS OUTSIDE OF CONVERGENT ZONE WILL LIKELY ONLY
EXPERIENCE WEAK ASCENT WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND LACK OF A STRONG
FORCING MECHANISM.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN COMBINATION WITH STORM MOTIONS
BELOW 15 KTS...INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA WITH SOME CHANCES FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

PROFILES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING.  WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.  SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODELS SHOWING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA (PRIMARILY EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER) WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FOR THURSDAY ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO REACH FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A
MOTION TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY DRY WEATHER
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 80S WARMING INTO THE 90S
FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WEST...MID 60S EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY BUT ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WEST FLOW
ALOFT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN RISING INTO THE 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TOWARD NORMAL. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ON A LINE FROM YUMA TO OAKLEY WILL
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP RIGHT THROUGH SHERMAN
COUNTY...WHICH WILL BRING VICINITY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR KGLD.
EXPECTING SOME STORMS TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE 5 MILE RADIUS...SO
INCLUDED A TEMPORARY GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
KGLD. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN STORMS...AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED FOR PERIODS OF TIME.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER
OFF LATER THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY
OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IT IN
THE KGLD TAF.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMMEDIATELY NEAR KMCK DURING
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE SPRINKLED ABOUT RED WILLOW
COUNTY.

OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD FOR BOTH TERMINAL SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1235 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014 /135 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
COLORADO AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 IN WESTERN KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EAST COLORADO WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
PASS AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS AND RECENT
HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             5 SSE GOODLAND          39.28N 101.69W
06/24/2014  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             6 ENE WINONA            39.08N 101.14W
06/24/2014  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              KS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             10 S SHARON SPRINGS     38.75N 101.75W
06/24/2014  E0.88 INCH       WALLACE            KS   PUBLIC

            40 TO 50 MPH WIND.

&&

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

KSZ042-242015-
WICHITA-
250 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEOTI...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 10149 3858 10147 3859 10112 3837 10112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 273DEG 15KT 3849 10136

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     HAIL             3 N RUSSELL SPRINGS     38.96N 101.18W
06/24/2014  E0.75 INCH       LOGAN              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOSTLY HEAVY RAIN. ONLY A FEW HAILSTONES.

&&

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

KSZ027-041-042-242015-
GREELEY-WALLACE-WICHITA-
200 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREELEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...WICHITA
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS...

AT 158 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTH OF SHARON SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 10155 3868 10180 3881 10165 3864 10137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 311DEG 20KT 3868 10164

MARTIN