Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS EAST COLORADO. CONVECTION
IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SO
FAR...THE MAIN THREATS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH
THE STORMS MOVING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
WE HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS EARLIER OVER
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS...WIDESPREAD CAPE OF 1500+ J/KG AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE LINE. 0-3 KM HELICITY AND SURFACE VORTICITY INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME WEAK...SHORT LIVE TORNADOES SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. OVERALL...LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING THAT A LARGE...SLOW MOVING SEVERE MCS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLAGLER COLORADO TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. THESE AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS INTO AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE
APPROACHING 60 DEGREES. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND MOVE EAST OVER FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.  A FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN ITS
WAKE.

THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE FA BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR THE FRONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHERN FA.  PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH SOME SILENT POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST FA. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF WYOMING.
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST FA. INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE THE INTERSTATE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR 70 WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRECEDE A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
RESUMING. A RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S WILL MODERATE TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTS.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP WITHIN FIRST 6 HOURS TO PIN
DOWN MOST SEVERE AVIATION CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OVER
50 KTS AND SOME HAIL ARE LIKELY AT TAF SITES WITH THE LINE MOVING
THROUGH. BEHIND THE LINE...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH. WITH A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...
ANTICIPATE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN.
VISIBILITIES ARE IN DOUBT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS BUT FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-071230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
427 PM MDT FRI JUN 6 2014 /527 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE
FALLEN WITHIN THE LAST THREE DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE AND ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
459 PM MDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N WRAY                40.17N 102.23W
06/06/2014  E50 MPH          YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND GST     LAIRD                   40.08N 102.10W
06/06/2014  E60 MPH          YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             5 NNE IDALIA            39.77N 102.26W
06/06/2014  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 W KIT CARSON          38.76N 102.93W
06/06/2014                   CHEYENNE           CO   STORM CHASER

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 PM MDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     HAIL             WILD HORSE              38.82N 103.00W
06/06/2014  E0.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            HEAVY RAIN ALSO.

&&

MENTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT FRI JUN 06 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     TSTM WND GST     HAIGLER                 40.01N 101.94W
06/06/2014  E60 MPH          DUNDY              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER