Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MESSY SITUATION WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH LARGE
UPPER LOW OVER NW COLORADO WHICH WILL SEND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA. AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...SFC HEATING WILL GENERATE POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH TSRA DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WV SATELLITE
SHOWS THE FIRST UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN
COLORADO AT THE MOMENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GENERATE A
SECOND AREA OF TSRA WHICH WILL REACH EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...CONTINUING TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
AGAIN THIS EVENING IN WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN EASTERN AREAS...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
SO OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED. STORMS WILL END WEST TO
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN
FAR EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY
AS NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO WILL BRING SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THAT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH ON MONDAY FOR CONTINUED LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO DECLINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY RIGHT NOW PUTTING THE CONVECTION IN THE
RIGHT PLACE. THIS HAS TO DO MAINLY WITH MESOSCALE AFFECTS FROM
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO MODELS WANT TO PUSH FRONT BACK
TO THE WEST SOME AND THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS TO
OCCUR. AT THIS TIME...KMCK MAY HAVE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT IT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

IF MESOSCALE INFLUENCES DO NOT BRING IN THUNDERSTORMS SOONER...THE
MAIN LIFT AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS FROM
AROUND 03Z TO NEAR 08Z. IF THE STRONGEST CELLS MOVE ACROSS
CONDITIONS COULD GO TO MVFR. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS...EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES WITH MVFR
TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. KGLD MAY CLEAR OUT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH KMCK STAY MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT TO PUT IN ANYTHING WITH ANY KIND OF
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 1 PM MDT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF WALNUTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH.

FURTHER WEST OVER COLORADO...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FRONT RANGE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO AND WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS EARLY ON...WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS TRANSITION
TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND BY PHONE ARE
APPRECIATED.

DLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

KSZ003-004-014>016-280015-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-THOMAS KS-GRAHAM KS-SHERIDAN KS-
637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM...THOMAS...SOUTHEASTERN
RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...SOUTHERN DECATUR AND SOUTHERN NORTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 635 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MORLAND TO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MONUMENT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10120 3956 10108 3957 10075 3963 10074
      3986 9963 3914 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 187DEG 19KT 3932 10007 3916 10114

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
623 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW STUDLEY           39.37N 100.23W
08/27/2014                   SHERIDAN           KS   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER COUNTY ROADS NEAR SHERIDAN LAKE.

&&

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
724 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

KSZ002>004-014>016-280100-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-THOMAS KS-GRAHAM KS-RAWLINS KS-SHERIDAN KS-
724 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM...THOMAS...SOUTHEASTERN
RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...DECATUR AND NORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 722 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3915 10136 3986 10118 3999 9962 3914 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 191DEG 18KT 3924 9969 3925 10111

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORLAND                 39.35N 100.07W
08/27/2014                   GRAHAM             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER 3-6 INCHES DEEP ON ROADS IN MORLAND. APPROXIMATELY
            3 FEET OF WATER COVERING ROAD BETWEEN MORLAND AND HIGHWAY
            24.

&&

JJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
820 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

KSZ004-016-280215-
NORTON KS-GRAHAM KS-
820 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES UNTIL
915 PM CDT...

AT 818 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LENORA TO BOGUE...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH THESE STORMS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTON...HILL CITY...ALMENA...LENORA...BOGUE...NICODEMUS...EDMOND...
CALVERT...DENSMORE...PENOKEE AND NEW ALMELO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3923 10003 3966 10016 3980 10006 3999 9963
      3957 9963 3957 9960 3925 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 235DEG 27KT 3964 9994 3935 9972

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
754 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

COZ090-091-280230-
YUMA COUNTY CO-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
754 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA AND NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

AT 750 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HIGHLAND CENTER TO 6
MILES SOUTH OF THURMAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MOST OF THESE STORMS. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS LINE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YUMA...WRAY...ECKLEY...CLARKVILLE...ABARR...KIRK...JOES...
HEARTSTRONG...VERNON...IDALIA AND WAUNETA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10207 3934 10234 3931 10315 3957 10315
      3957 10280 4044 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 269DEG 16KT 4051 10253 3951 10324

DR