Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Goodland, KS

379 
WWUS53 KGLD 090102
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
702 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COC063-090130-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-140809T0130Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
702 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 701 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF
BETHUNE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN KIT CARSON COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 194 AND 211.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3955 10250 3957 10219 3929 10229 3934 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 272DEG 17KT 3945 10243

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

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821 
WWUS53 KGLD 090124
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
724 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COC063-090134-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0262.000000T0000Z-140809T0130Z/
KIT CARSON CO-
724 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM MDT/830 PM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.  HOWEVER...GUSTY 
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3955 10250 3957 10219 3929 10229 3934 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 272DEG 17KT 3945 10230

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST THE
TRENDS/LOCATION OF THOSE POPS. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
GETTING A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THEY ALL
ARE TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THEIR HIGHEST POPS WHICH HAS BEEN
THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS. SO GOING BY REALITY AND WHERE THE
BEST LIFT IS LOCATED...ADJUSTED THE POPS UP IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT IN WV LOOP WITHIN GENERALLY
PROGRESSIVE BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER FLOW PATTERN. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVING EASTWARD WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DRIER/WARMER MID LEVELS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
RESULTED.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF POPS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN LATE TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. VIS SAT SHOWS NO CU
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA YET AND A DOWNWARD
TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS. THUS FAR CU AND CONVECTION ARE LIMITED
TO ELEVATED HEATING IN ROCKIES. WILL MAKE A FINAL CALL AFTER A
SECOND LOOK BUT WILL LIKELY TREND POPS DOWN FURTHER FOR THIS
EVENING GIVEN OB/SAT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODEL GUIDANCE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS REPRESENTED REASONABLY WELL BOTH TEMPORALLY AND
SPATIALLY WITHIN GUIDANCE AND SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR AT
LEAST TRANSIENT/WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION AND LOW 60 SURFACE DEW POINTS
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...HAVING
MAINTAINED SEVERE WORDING IN HWO. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE COINCIDENT WITH DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WITH AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...QVECTORS ARE UNFAVORABLE...BUT MAY BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE AND OMEGA FIELDS ARE
FAVORABLE. INSTABILITY/SHEAR SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP
MAY BE SEVERE. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEBULOUS...BUT HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THAT PATTERN WITH ANY EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE IN
THE FLOW PROBABLY ENOUGH TO TAP INTO WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
ZERO CIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING MID LEVELS WILL WORK AGAINST
CONVECTION...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST IN EASTERN COLORADO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND THE AXIS NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR POPS WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE WITH LOW SHEAR UNDER
THE RIDGE. BY LATE WEEK...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT SOUTH
AND WEST WHICH SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW FAR EAST DO THE THUNDERSTORMS GET TONIGHT.
PROBLEM HAS BEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY SO FAR...MODELS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS/PRODUCING PRECIPITATION TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH. SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION/FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS LOW. GOING BY
WHAT APPEARS TO BE WORKING THE BEST WOULD SAY THAT KGLD WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

CONSIDERING THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE STORMS AND THEIR SPEED...IT
LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH KGLD AROUND 03Z. JUST HAVE VFR
AT THIS TIME BUT IS LINE FILLS IN AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES COULD
SEE SUB VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND WILL UPDATE APPROPRIATELY.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE KMCK COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY FOG.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS TIMING HERE LATELY HAS BEEN TO
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS TOO FAST/FAR EAST. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MAIN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD
SO INSERTED JUST VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1030 AM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014 /1130 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER WILL NOT OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM MDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             8 NE YUMA               40.21N 102.62W
08/08/2014  M1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MENTZER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ091-082345-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
534 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 533 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THURMAN TO 10 MILES NORTH OF FLAGLER TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF ARRIBA...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10316 3957 10315 3958 10290 3957 10284
      3942 10283 3908 10296 3908 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 269DEG 22KT 3965 10313 3943 10312
          3917 10321

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
544 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ090-091-090015-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-YUMA COUNTY-
544 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 542 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
ARICKAREE SCHOOL TO 8 MILES NORTH OF FLAGLER TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ARRIBA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED 2
MILES SOUTH OF JOES.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10316 3957 10281 3974 10280 3974 10254
      3955 10251 3953 10269 3914 10282 3914 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 271DEG 18KT 3964 10305 3941 10307
          3918 10316

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
607 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ090-090030-
YUMA COUNTY-
607 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 606 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LONE STAR...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
CLARKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  LOCATIONS AND TIMES OF ARRIVAL INCLUDE...
  CLARKVILLE BY 630 PM MDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10241 4044 10240 4024 10279 4035 10280
      4036 10279 4044 10279 4044 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 242DEG 23KT 4035 10284

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ090-090045-
YUMA COUNTY-
630 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 629 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLARKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4044 10240 4041 10237 4030 10271 4044 10279
      4044 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 245DEG 20KT 4042 10265

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
636 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

COZ091-090045-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
636 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 634 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTH OF STRATTON...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10267 3957 10253 3957 10230 3957 10229
      3931 10233 3934 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 270DEG 16KT 3945 10255

HUSTED