Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO
WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION/BACK DOOR FRONT WITH UPPER 50 DEW POINTS WELL INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. MODEL SIGNALS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MERGE INTO A
CLUSTER OR LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS AS LINE ORGANIZES. POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 INCHES EXISTS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL END
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AROUND MID DAY. RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE TOP EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HOLDING THEM DOWN A BIT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE FORECAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER HIGH EXTENDS FROM TEXAS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHEAST.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
AREA BEFORE FLATTENING A BIT THURSDAY. WITH MODEST DISCREPANCIES
TIED TO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND TIMING OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT
MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE AREA MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO POP/WX
FORECAST.

BASED ON GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES A SLOW WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS DUE TO CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME AND THE MESOSCALE AFFECTS THEY WILL
CAUSE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KGLD FIRST THEN KMCK ABOUT A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. IT LOOKS LIKE AT THIS TIME THAT SOME
STRATUS AND FOG WILL OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KMCK.

ALSO INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR KMCK. MORE THAN ONE MODEL IS SHOWING
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH KMCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
SO SINCE THERE IS SOME SUPPORT CHOSE TO PUT IN A VCTS AT THAT TIME
AND REVISIT THIS ISSUE AGAIN FOR THE 06Z TAFS. AT KGLD THE NEXT
BATCH OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL START AFFECT THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY. SO CHOSE TO INTRODUCE VCTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081815-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
143 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014 /243 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
SLOW MOVING STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE  AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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