Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
522 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

THIS EVENING...SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO RUNNING
ROUGHLY FROM STERLING TO JUST WEST OF YUMA TO LIMON IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY AND NOW DEVELOPING TOWERS
VCNTY AND NE OF LIMON. EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THIS FEATURE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH 03Z. DECENT CAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG AND 6 KM SHEAR OF 35 KTS WILL MEAN A FEW STORMS
WILL BECOME ORGANIZED PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. STORMS WHICH FORM THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE WESTERN 1-2 TIERS OF KANSAS COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING
AROUND 03Z.

SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE BEING JUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...ALONG
THE CO-KS STATE LINE BY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A
FEATURE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
INSTABILITY AXIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ADVERTISED TO BE A BIT EAST
OF THIS FEATURE...LYING ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 83 BY MID
AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 ARE INDICATED BY THE NAM
JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN APPEAR LIKELY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE AXIS...MOVING E-SE.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON GIVEN FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S OVER GLD
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT
FRI JUL 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE HEAT. 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S EXCEPT 100-105 ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA. ON MONDAY 850 TEMPERATURES COOL
ABOUT 3-6F ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
101. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S SATURDAY
NIGHT...60S AND LOW 70S SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING AN AREA
OF 700-300MB MOISTURE AIDED BY UPPER JET MAX ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND INTO THE AREA AROUND THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. ON MONDAY SFC
TROUGH BISECTS THE AREA AND SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 16-18C
AREA COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND FROM LOCAL RESEARCH
SEVERE WEATHER MINIMAL IF AT ALL.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES SOUTH A BIT TOWARD SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO DEAMPLIFYING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S.

LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...700MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16C-18C MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. A
FAIRLY STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMERGES OFF THE FRONT RANGE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR AREA
IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND MAY HAVE A FOCUSING MECHANISM IN THE FORM OF
A WIND CONVERGENCE AREA DURING THE DAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARENT
QUITE AS HOT SO CAPPING MECHANISM MAY BE WEAKER AND CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 17C-19C RANGE
WHICH SHOULD REALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FINALLY FOR
FRIDAY...GFS SHOWING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RATHER HIGH...ENOUGH THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 17C PUT A LID ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT
EITHER KGLD OR KMCK. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND STREAM NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF IFR OR VLIFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AT EITHER TERMINAL
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND
SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN THE AREA FOR INITIATION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191415-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014 /1157 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 2-3 PM MDT
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM SIDNEY
NEBRASKA TO YUMA AND FLAGLER IN EASTERN COLORADO. OTHER STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
25. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
LARGE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND BLOWING
DUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
821 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             1 NE GOODLAND           39.35N 101.70W
07/18/2014  E0.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   COCORAHS

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             5 W GOODLAND            39.33N 101.80W
07/18/2014  E1.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
826 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.80W
07/18/2014  M63 MPH          SHERMAN            KS   MESONET

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
834 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     FLASH FLOOD      14 NNW GOODLAND         39.54N 101.80W
07/18/2014                   SHERMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODED AT SHERMAN COUNTY ROADS 78 AND 15.

&&

KOCHASIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
839 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             3 W GOODLAND            39.35N 101.77W
07/18/2014  M1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MOST STONES PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED.

&&

KOCHASIC

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