Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
REMNANT MCV CENTERED NEAR TRIBUNE FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH
IS ENHANCING CLOUD COVER IN THAT AREA WHICH ALSO INITIATED A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/SURFACE HEATING APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF LIFT ELSEWHERE...AS ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT IS INDICATED IN QVECTORS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. OVERNIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BEFORE MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF CWA BY
MONDAY EVENING WITH BETTER COVERAGE TIED TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL
EAST OF THE CWA. I LIMITED COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MONDAY
NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW (CENTERED OVER
GREAT LAKES) AND WILL BRING MUCH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO THE CWA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VERY GOOD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS
(ORIGINATING IN THE GULF) WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS
OF PWAT VALUES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
(1.2-1.5")...AND TOTAL EVENT QPF VALUES AT LEAST 1" OR HIGHER.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOME WARMING (MID 70S
IN THE WEST...LOW 70S EAST).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LIGHT PRECIPITATION (POSSIBLY MORE OF A HEAVY
DRIZZLE THAN RAIN) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH A COOL AIR MASS ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL LIKELY REACH A RECORD LOW MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY.
IN FACT IF WE REMAIN SOCKED IN ALL DAY WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHS MUCH
WARMER THAN 60F. I TRENDED TEMPS DOWN WED AND MAY STILL BE TOO WARM
(CURRENTLY HAVE MID-UPPER 60S). AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AND SLIGHT MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA. SOME GUIDANCE STILL LINGERS LIGHT
PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE CWA THURSDAY...THOUGH OTHER THAN A
LINGERING MOIST AIR MASS AND WEAK INSTABILITY MOST LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION...SO I LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
AND PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND AND SHOULD SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN
SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND COMBINES IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA. AT THIS RANGE IT IS HARD TO HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS SO
I LIMITED POPS TO 20/30 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT EITHER
TERMINAL WILL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT BETTER
WITH THE FRONT SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF VCTS AND EXPECTED TIMING
AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
255 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014 /355 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NEZ079-132100-
DUNDY-
248 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 243 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF BENKELMAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4010 10133 4000 10162 4000 10164 4025 10174
      4031 10142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 329DEG 17KT 4020 10157

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NEZ079-132115-
DUNDY-
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 257 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAX...OR NEAR MAX...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4013 10132 4000 10133 4000 10164 4021 10172
      4028 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 325DEG 24KT 4012 10147

LUNDQUIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
309 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND GST     NNE BENKELMAN           40.06N 101.53W
07/13/2014  M58 MPH          DUNDY              NE   MESONET

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     NNE BENKELMAN           40.05N 101.54W
07/13/2014  M66 MPH          DUNDY              NE   MESONET

&&

JJM