Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

THE NAM BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN FA EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THERE IS GOOD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 60 WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2800 J/KG AND SHEAR
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40KTS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA.  BOUNDARY LAYER HELICITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA NEAR THE
FRONT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT H7 (16,17C) WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WILL PRECLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.  OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA, POPS WILL BE NIL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH MID 60S POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN SHIFT OF BROAD 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TO MORE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK WEST BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DOWN TO THE SURFACE...MODELS BRING SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO...SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DOES DEVELOP AT BASE OF TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
RIDE ALONG THE REMNANTS OF SYSTEM AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF SYNOPTIC SETUP...THE CHANCE
FOR TRW/RW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
LEE-SIDE TROUGH...THEN TRANSITION TO MORE BROAD COVERAGE THEREAFTER
AS SHORTWAVE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MODELS POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT
LOOK GOOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH PW/S 1.00-1.50" FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
AROUND +20C AT NIGHT UP TO AROUND +30C/+31C DURING THE DAY. WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS AT NIGHT AND ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S(WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SOME VARIATION IN
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE BY A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO KGLD AND KMCK
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH POSSIBLE MVFR NEAR STORMS. CLEARING
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING AT BOTH SITES
TOWARD SUNRISE DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1043 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014 /1143 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO RUSSELL
SPRINGS KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
403 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSZ014-015-028-029-072230-
GOVE-LOGAN-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-
503 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHERIDAN
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MINGO TO 8 MILES WEST OF RUSSELL SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN HEAVY RAIN OR BLOWING DUST.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.
&&

LAT...LON 3919 10019 3869 10070 3870 10121 3891 10144
      3938 10093 3923 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 316DEG 21KT 3920 10083 3886 10128

ROBINSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
410 PM MDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND GST     ANGELUS                 39.19N 100.69W
07/07/2014  M51.00 MPH       SHERIDAN           KS   MESONET

&&

RHUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 PM MDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND GST     OAKLEY                  39.13N 100.85W
07/07/2014  M64 MPH          LOGAN              KS   AWOS

&&

BRB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

KSZ015-016-029-072345-
GOVE-GRAHAM-SHERIDAN-
615 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...GOVE
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PENOKEE TO 6 MILES
EAST OF SCOTT STATE LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9961 3912 10014 3869 10016 3870 10082
      3886 10082 3953 10014 3953 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 297DEG 26KT 3936 10001 3865 10079

ROBINSON