Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...ELEVATED STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY THIS MORNING FROM SHERMAN COUNTY SOUTHEAST THROUGH GOVE
COUNTY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST
WHILE THE LINE ITSELF MOVES BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD/MAY
SEE A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUPPORTING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 90-95. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70
NEAR HILL CITY.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S SOUTH. REINSERTED SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST POSSIBLY
CREATING A FEW STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY INCREASING
COVERAGE AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES IN
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE 50S. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AS MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN FOR DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND FURTHER
SOUTH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE
EASTWARD. POST FRONTAL RELATIVELY COOL/DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
MID LEVELS INTO LATE WEEK. BY LATE WEEK...THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH AND INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN BY MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SHIFT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOCUSING DEEPEST MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION A
LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 16Z PLUS OR
MINUS AN HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE A CONVECTIVE TOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE 23Z-
03Z TIME FRAME BUT RIGHT NOW ACTIVITY TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN
THE TAF.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 17Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE 12Z-16Z TIMEFRAME WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AFTER 16Z NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
340 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
340 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014 /440 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF
THE COLORADO KANSAS BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GOVE TO TRIBUNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/29/2014  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT 15TH AND CALDWELL.

0201 AM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/29/2014  M1.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT NWS OFFICE.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     HAIL             10 S RULETON            39.20N 101.88W
06/29/2014  E1.25 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 AM     HAIL             GOODLAND                39.35N 101.71W
06/29/2014  M1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MOSTLY QUARTER SIZE. ONE STONE MEASURED 1 1/2 INCH IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 AM     HAIL             10 S RULETON            39.20N 101.88W
06/29/2014  M3.00 INCH       SHERMAN            KS   PUBLIC

            HAIL BROKE WINDOWS. RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 WSW OAKLEY            39.09N 100.96W
06/29/2014                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            18 INCHES TO 2 FEET OF WATER OVER ROADS NEAR HIGHWAY 40
            ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF OAKLEY.

&&

BRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N WINONA              39.08N 101.25W
06/29/2014                   LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING OCCURRING ON MANY ROADS IN LOGAN COUNTY. JUST
            NORTH OF WINONA A 100 YARD STRETCH OF ONE COUNTY ROAD HAS
            WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH FLOWING OVER IT. COUNTY OFFICIALS
            ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING SOME COUNTY ROADS.

&&

BRB