Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

TONIGHT...

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRECIPITATION DEPENDENT AS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SOME SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SSE FLOW ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LEE TROUGH SETTING
UP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH LAPS CAPE
VALUES OF 1500 TO NEAR 2500 W/ DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO L60S
NOW...AND LAPS LI'S CURRENTLY -2 TO -4...THE AREA IS PRIMED AGAIN TO
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GIVING UP VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL.
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM LATEST SPC GUIDANCE BUT
CONFINED TO INITIALIZATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHEN STORMS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST. HAVE CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN THE SHORT TERM FOR
TONIGHT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
IN THE 1.00-1.50 RANGE SO SOME AREAS WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOUR
POTENTIAL WITH SOME AREAS SEEING STREET FLOODING/PONDING. WILL TREND
DOWN PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT ENDING BEFORE 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING. STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVER NIGHT LOWS
WHICH WILL HAVE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH
DIFFERENCE BEING CLEARING AFTER CONVECTION.

THURSDAY...

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM EXITING
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM MCCOOK DOWN
SOUTH TO GOVE AND QUINTER IN GOVE COUNTY. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOOKING
FOR MORNING HOURS TO BE PRECIP-FREE WITH INCREASING CHANCE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS MODELS BEGIN TRW DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LITTLE
PUSH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THRU THE DAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
15-30 MPH AND UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT BEGIN PUSH EAST UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHANCE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA VERSUS EAST. LOOKING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL AGAIN AS BUFKIT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS PUT HIGH CAPE VALUES
NEAR 2500-3000 J/KG AND LI/S NEAR -6. SPC DOES HAVE EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW. LACK OF CLOUD COVER THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL GIVE AREA HIGHS
RANGING FROM 90-95F. DO EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY TRW
AS PW VALUES WILL BE OVER AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BEST
MOISTURE AND JET SUPPORT SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT SO DO THE HIGHER POPS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY SATURDAY BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHTS
SYSTEM.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BORDER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S
EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 80S. COULD SEE SOME 90S IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW WESTERLY TO START THE PERIOD WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
FAVORING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OVER GLD BETWEEN 03-05Z AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER MCK BETWEEN 04-08Z. SKY COVER WILL
DIMINISH BEHIND THE STORMS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 16Z THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1039 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 /1139 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS DISTURBANCES PASS AND
AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
COMES ON FRIDAY WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...
INCLUDING TORNADOES...ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

KSZ003-004-NEZ081-260515-
DECATUR-NORTON-RED WILLOW-
1150 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND DECATUR COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND RED WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 1150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
DANBURY TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OBERLIN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 10018 4001 10019 4000 9989 3957 10004
      3956 10045 3958 10074 4007 10075 4028 10028
TIME...MOT...LOC 0450Z 288DEG 30KT 4012 10037 3977 10067

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

COZ090-260515-
YUMA COUNTY-
1100 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 1059 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KIRK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 10276 3982 10269 3977 10232 3957 10245
      3957 10270 3957 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 206DEG 10KT 3967 10262

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014

KSZ002-014-015-260545-
RAWLINS-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-
1211 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS...SHERIDAN AND RAWLINS COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 1208 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTH OF
HERNDON TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEVANT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10138 3950 10138 3978 10076 3969 10074
      3957 10074 3957 10016 3913 10017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 290DEG 20KT 3971 10075 3952 10129

LUNDQUIST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

KSZ003-004-016-260545-
DECATUR-GRAHAM-NORTON-
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTON...DECATUR AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS...

AT 1212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
LEBANON TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SELDEN...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9960 3914 10016 3957 10016 3957 10073
      4000 10073 4000 9962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 271DEG 56KT 3994 10024 3962 10069

LUNDQUIST