Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RAMP UP QUICKLY AFTER 3 PM MDT
(4 PM CDT) AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IGNITES A FEW STORMS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND
WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER EPISODE OF 70+ MPH GUSTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 50S WEST...MID 60S EAST.

ON MONDAY MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING MAY SNEAK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...WITH
PARCELS ORIGINATING AROUND 800MB HAVING UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE TO NO CIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THESE STORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOWEVER IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER AT AROUND
30KTS...BUT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS IN THE LAST HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE ROCKIES TROUGH OR EVEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS. IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 03Z
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10KTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AFTER 22Z. FROM
02Z-05Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS TO
35KTS...POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER STORMS AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 05Z NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
130 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014 /230 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AN ORGANIZED LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT).

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