Winter Storm Warning 10, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014

AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR
SATELLITE/LIGHTNING LOOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/WESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS.

THEN ON WED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BECOME STRONG BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS MIXING INTO THE
VALLEYS...IN SPITE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE S/SW TO N/NE
ORIENTED FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. ALSO INITIALLY VIRGA OR
HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY
GUSTY WINDS. WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS QUITE HIGH UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. BETTER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT
PACKS SOME GOOD COLD AIR WITH 700MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C TO -6C BY
MIDNIGHT. THEREFORE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE HIGHER VALLEYS
LATE IN THE EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO THU AND BEYOND...SO WINTER WEATHER
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER COLORADO MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THE LATER PERIODS OF THIS STORM...READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014

TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A MORE INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY. A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS OVER OUR FORECAST
TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING. NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND COLORADO ROCKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AFTER 18Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOW THAT
LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 00Z. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS DRIVEN DOWN BY VIRGA/SHOWERS WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AFTER 20Z. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN UTAH
FROM 22Z TO 00Z...THEN INTO CENTRAL COLORADO BY 06Z THUR. SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN TAF SITE WILL BE
IMPACTED WITH LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     COZ009-010-012-018-019-205-207.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING COZ004-013-201.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING COZ203.

UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...EH/MPM
LONG TERM...MPM
AVIATION...15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-261200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
555 AM MDT TUE MAR 25 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER SUNNY DAY IN STORE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MANY
MOUNTAIN AREAS. THERE WILL BE A LULL ON THURSDAY BEFORE A
SECONDARY SYSTEM BRINGS MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT WILL BE ON SUNDAY
WHEN A QUICK SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.