Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
443 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF WESTERN CO AND EASTERN UT. ONLY
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR SE UT AND SW CO ARE REMOVED FROM THE
THREAT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NV AND WESTERN UT WILL
GRADUALLY ROTATE EAST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PVA AHEAD
OF A VORT CENTER LIFTING NE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
PRODUCING SLOW-MOVING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CO CENTRAL AND NW MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL RIDE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE STORMS BECOMING OVERNIGHT STEADY RAINERS.

IN THE CLEARING SKIES UNDER THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE NV/UT
TROUGH...THE 1100+ JOULES OF CAPE IS BEGINNING TO BE REALIZED AS
FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION KEEPS DEVELOPING OVER THE LA SAL AND
ABAJO MTS WITH SECOND AND THIRD GENERATION STORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE HILLS AND OVER THE PARADOX VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
SUSTAINED BY BETTER WIND SHEAR ALOFT ALLOWING MULTICELL STORMS TO
GENERATE. THESE OUGHT TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 03Z.

TOMORROW WILL BE NO WALK IN THE PARK...THERE SHOULD BE LESS
FORCING THAN TODAY. THE MAIN DYNAMIC SUPPORT TRAVELS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. WILL EXPECT PLENTY
OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE AS
STRONG NOR AS WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BROAD WRN RIDGE WILL DICTATE
MOISTURE SURGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES ON THURSDAY FOR A RELATIVELY DRY
DAY OVER ERN UTAH...BUT TERRAIN DRIVEN STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR
OVER WRN COLORADO. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION ON
FRIDAY FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE TIME
FRAME AND BEARS WATCHING AS LOCAL HEAVY SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR IF
THIS VERIFIED. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND WE WILL SEE IF MODELS
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY ON THIS FEATURE...BUT POP GRIDS ARE ABOVE
CLIMO.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIVERGES IN A SIGNIFICANT MANNER. THE EURO MODEL KEEPS A TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT DOWNSTREAM. IF THE
FORMER OCCURS...THEN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK STAYS WET. THE
GFS OFFERS THE "NOT SO WET" SOLUTION. ONE THING IS CERTAIN...THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS AT KMTJ...KRIL...KEGE...KASE AND KTEX.
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL ALSO BE OBSCURED AT TIMES
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 18Z...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND A SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
WITHIN THE MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NW AND
CENTRAL CO AND NE UTAH.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ001>014-
     017>020-022-023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR UTZ023>025-027-
     028.

&&

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...CC
HYDROLOGY...CC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
557 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-301200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
557 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOST WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED MUD...DEBRIS FLOWS...OR FALLING
ROCKS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS PRONE TO SUCH OCCURRENCES
...LIKE STEEP TERRAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN QUITE
ACTIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...AFTER A LULL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL STAY MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER MONSOONAL SURGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH CELLS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN MORE PREVALENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR ANY OBSERVED
FLOODING TO THE GRAND JUNCTION FORECAST OFFICE.

EH/NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
654 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             LOMA                    39.20N 108.82W
07/29/2014  E0.50 INCH       MESA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND 0.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. VERY
            LOW VISIBILITIES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1401332

MALEKSA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
758 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     FLOOD            HOTCHKISS               38.80N 107.72W
07/29/2014                   DELTA              CO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED FLOODING IN HOTCHKISS NEAR HIGHWAY 92.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1401336

MALEKSA