Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

...ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO INVADE ON BLUSTERY N WINDS AND SOME
AREAS WILL DEAL WITH NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW TODAY...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

SOME BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS ARE MOVING THRU BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR
THE SUN TODAY PER SATELLITE.

AFTER CHECKING THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE...THE MEAN SNOWFALL FROM THE TOP
15 ANALOGS SUGGEST 1-2" IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY S OF HWY 24 IN
N-CNTRL KS. SO FCST SNOW AMTS WERE NUDGE UPWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

FGEN-DRIVEN SNOW IS EXPANDING E. YOU CAN SEE IT IN THE ELEVATED
REFLECTIVITY ON OUR RADAR. SNOW HAS BEGUN FALLING IN THE LAST 30
MINS AT HILL CITY/NORTON/MCCOOK.

WE ARE ALSO NOTING MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE...IN THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE S SIDE OF THE
PRECIP SHIELD. SO FURTHER EXPANSION WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THAT MCK IS
DOWN TO 4 MI...I MAY NEED TO EXPAND SOME LIGHT ACCUMS N TO NEB HWY
136.

.952 AM UPDATE...
PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER THE
SANDHILLS THE PAST FEW HRS. THIS SNOW WAS DROPPING S AND
VISIBILITIES AT ORD AND ALBION HAVE DROPPED TO 4 MI. WE CANNOT SEE
IT BECAUSE IT IS BELOW THE RADAR BEAM.

MULTIPLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS ENHANCED SHORT-TERM
FCST /ESTF/ UPDATE. MOST ARE MINOR BUT SKYCOVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO INDICATE COMPLETELY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
SATELLITE SUGGESTS A LITTLE SUN IS PEEKING THRU OVER DIMINISHING
PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS...BUT THE SKY WILL COMPLETELY CLOUD OVER
BEFORE NOON.

POPS WERE ALSO NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD S OF I-80 AND GIVEN SOME
INCREASED TEMPORAL RESOLUTION. INTERESTING TO SEE THE 06Z/12Z NAM
FINALLY JOINED THE PACK WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP.

ALSO INCLUDED SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FCST N OF I-80 THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. SO THE DOWNWARD SLIDE WILL
CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE DAY.

AT 4PM...DEPENDENT ON COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
FURTHER 12Z MODEL INTERPRETATION...WE MAY ATTEMPT SOME SORT OF
CONVERSION FROM A WIND CHILL WATCH TO ADVISORIES/WARNINGS.

THE CRITERION FOR AN ADVISORY: -20 TO -29
THE CRITERION FOR A WARNING: -30 OR BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF
MONTANA AND WYOMING...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN
FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS
NEAR 200MB PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KOAX AND KLBF. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. AN ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
ALSO NOTED EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS CLEARED OUR ENTIRE CWA AND AS A RESULT...THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTERLY.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST THE PAIR OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN
ADDITION...YET ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST FARTHER INTO
ONTARIO...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERN QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AS THE INITIAL TWO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVE EAST...THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS IS EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A BREAK IN THE MID LEVEL JET AXIS. AS A
RESULT...THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK TO
OUR NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE MID
LEVEL JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. SO ALTHOUGH THE PAIR OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...AN AREA
OF ENHANCED OMEGA DUE TO DIRECT AND INDIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATIONS
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. POPS REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA AS A RESULT.

TAKING AN EVEN AVERAGE OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-
MEAN PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE
0.01-0.05" RANGE ACROSS OUR SOUTH 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS EVENT APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER TEENS...THUS RESULTING IN
SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY IN THE 15-25:1 RANGE. THIS IN TURN
PROVIDES SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON THE ORDER OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BLEND OF
MET/NAM AND MAV/GFS GUIDANCE PROVIDES A SUSTAINED WIND PEAKING AT
AROUND 23 OR 24KTS ACROSS MANY OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES AT 12Z
THIS MORNING...AND THEN WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES THE SAME. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THE TRADITIONALLY "WINDIER" MAV/GFS GUIDANCE DOES
BRING A SOLID CORRIDOR OF 25KT WIND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES...WITH 26KTS KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP AT KODX AROUND 12Z.
SO WHILE IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTH
COULD BRIEFLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AT THIS TIME IT IS
BELIEVED THESE OCCURRENCES WILL BE FLEETING AND VERY LIMITED IN
TEMPORAL LENGTH. AS A RESULT...WIND HEADLINES ARE NOT PLANNED FOR
THIS MORNING BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD IN THE HWO AS WELL AS AN SPS. ALSO...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COMBINATION OF THIS SNOWFALL AND
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD CERTAINLY CREATE PERIODIC
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BLOWING SNOW AND AS A RESULT...FELT IT
PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE SUCH WORDING TO THE HWO.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND AS A RESULT...SURFACE TEMPERATURE
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE TEENS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE REALIZED THROUGH MOST
LOCATIONS. FINALLY...OVERNIGHT WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF LINE FROM LOUP CITY...TO HASTINGS...TO GENEVA. WILL GO AHEAD
AND OUTLOOK THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS STARTS THE PERIOD OF
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. WITH THE COLDER AIR THERE IS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. AS COLD AS THE AIR IS THAT AS THE COLD UPPER LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW ZERO FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF -30 DEGREES OR COLDER ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EVEN DROPPING TO AROUND -20 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE AND WIND CHILL VALUES
IMPROVE.

ONCE THE COLD SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TEMPERATURES
REBOUND RATHER QUICKLY. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
FEEL QUITE BALMY WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION PUSHES BACK INTO THE AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT WARMER EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: THE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY. AN MVFR CIG DOES REMAIN AT EAR...BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS SCATTERING STRATUS AND FRACTOSTRATUS...EXPOSING
MID-LEVEL CIGS. N WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BUT STILL COULD GUST UP TO
24 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: MID-LEVEL VFR CIGS PREVAIL. N WINDS CONTINUE STEADY AROUND
15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 22 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN: VFR CIGS CASCADE DOWN TO 5-7K FT. CANT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SHSN IN THE MORNING...BUT ANOTHER PUSH OF ARCTIC
AIR COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS AFTER 18Z. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF 1/4SM SN BLSN...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014

HERE IS A BIT MORE SPECIFIC CLIMATE DETAIL REGARDING THE UPCOMING
COLD BLAST CENTERED ON SUN-MON TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE
SEEING A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND HIGHS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ONLY FORECAST TO TOP
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...HERE ARE TWO KEY POINTS TO
KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE:

A) WE ARE NOT CATCHING THE WORST OF THIS ARCTIC BLAST...ALTHOUGH ONE
ONLY HAS TO LOOK AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS THE NORFOLK/OMAHA AREAS TO
FIND MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO.

B) SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS SUCH AS THOSE FORECAST FOR THE TRI-CITIES
AREA ON SUNDAY-MONDAY DON/T HAPPEN EVERY WINTER...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO NOT ALL THAT UNUSUAL EITHER...GENERALLY OCCURRING EVERY FEW
YEARS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME (AND CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO AT LEAST MINOR
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS)...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT 9
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND 8 DEGREES ON MONDAY...

- THE LAST TIME GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS FAILED TO REACH AT LEAST
9 DEGREES FOR A DAILY HIGH WAS A BIT SHORT OF 3 YEARS AGO ON
FEB. 8, 2011, WHEN BOTH SITES TOPPED OUT AT 7 DEGREES.

- THE LAST TIME GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS FAILED TO REACH AT LEAST
9 DEGREES TWO DAYS IN A ROW WAS ALSO JUST SHY OF 3 YEARS AGO ON
JAN. 11-12, 2011 (GRAND ISLAND 8 BOTH DAYS...HASTINGS 8/6)

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064.

KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
817 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
051430-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
817 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
136...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SNOWFALL WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...VISIBILITY COULD BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.

WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY...TO
HASTINGS...TO GENEVA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LOUP
CITY...TO HASTINGS...TO GENEVA.

WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY. A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LOUP CITY...TO GRAND ISLAND...TO YORK...WHICH IS WHERE THE
COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST WIND CHILL WATCH PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

BRYANT/HALBLAUB