Wind Advisory 9, NWS Hastings, NE

159 
WWUS73 KGID 151736
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082>085-160200-
/O.CON.KGID.WI.Y.0009.140315T2200Z-140316T0900Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-FURNAS-HARLAN-
FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...
FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD
1236 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM CDT SUNDAY...


* WIND...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH 
  GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. 

* TIMING...THE WIND WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE 
  AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE THIS 
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND 
  DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 TO
39 MPH OR GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

052 
WWUS73 KGID 160132
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
832 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO
45 MPH...IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082>085-160900-
/O.CON.KGID.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-140316T0900Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-FURNAS-HARLAN-
FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...
FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD
832 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY...


* WIND...SUSTAINED FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
  OF 40 TO 45 MPH.
 
* IMPACTS...UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND AND 
  DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 TO
39 MPH OR GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

445 
WWUS73 KGID 160617
NPWGID

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
117 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082>085-160730-
/O.CAN.KGID.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-140316T0900Z/
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-FURNAS-HARLAN-
FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PHILLIPSBURG...SMITH CENTER...MANKATO...
PLAINVILLE...STOCKTON...OSBORNE...BELOIT...BEAVER CITY...ALMA...
FRANKLIN...RED CLOUD
117 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE WIND ACROSS THE AREA HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
PAST FEW HOURS...A TREND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH WAS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1247 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES.

ONCE AGAIN SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
OBSERVATIONS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD DURING THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE WILL ALSO BE COLDER AIR
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST COULD SEE TEMPERATURES START TO FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. EASILY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN. MODELS HAVE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN INTO THE AREA. THE NAM
IS THE QUICKEST BRINGING IT INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE GFS KEEPS MOST...IF NOT ALL...TO THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THE 4KM
WRF HAS RAIN MOVING IN VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT SOME
LOW POPS IN THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. BASES OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
HIGH AND IF THERE WERE ANY RAIN IT WOULD BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

ALOFT: NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO OUR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS
2 DAYS. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A GENERAL TENDENCY
FOR A MEAN W COAST RIDGE AND AN ERN USA TROF THRU WED. A PATTERN
VERY FAMILIAR SINCE DEC. SHORTWAVE TROFS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
SAT NIGHT WITH THE NEXT ONE ARRIVING MON-TUE...

IN THE 6-15 DAY TIME FRAME WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE WITH THE N PAC TROF BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS WOULD
FORCE THE MEAN TROF INTO THE WRN USA WHICH CAN BE VERY PRODUCTIVE
FOR SNOW/ SEVERE TSTMS AND PRECIP. THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT OF
THIS WRN TROF WILL BE ITS PERSISTENCE. DO WE GET HIT WITH JUST ONE
STORM OR MULTIPLE STORMS? THE GEM ENSEMBLE CONTROL RUN IS
ESPECIALLY THREATENING WITH MULTIPLE LOWS SWINGING THRU THE TROF.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL SNAG /FOR AT LEAST A TIME/ BECAUSE ONE OR
MORE LOWS WILL BE MEANDERING BETWEEN HI AND CA. DEPENDENT ON ITS
LONGITUDE...IT WOULD INDUCE A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW. SUFFICE TO
SAY THE ODDS ARE INCREASING FOR SOME ACTIVE WX AND COLDER TEMPS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LAST 10 DAYS OF THE MONTH OR SO.

SURFACE: LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER TX AND HEADS E INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY SAT NIGHT. GREAT LAKES HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
SUN...BUT A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W...IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO SW CANADA. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
MON OVER MT/WY. THIS LOW WILL CROSS NEB MON NIGHT ALONG WITH ITS
COLD FRONT. TUE-WED THE LOW DEPARTS FOR THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDING IN. THE HIGH DROPS INTO TX THU. THEN
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS LOW PRES ORGANIZES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.
THIS WILL INVOLVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE-SIDE TROF. SO EXPECT BY
FRI WE'LL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HAZARDS: THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED SAT NIGHT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS AVERAGE THRU WED...THEN BELOW
AVERAGE THU-FRI.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT: PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WINDY. COLD AIR ADVECTION /CAA/ WILL
BE UNDERWAY. POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES? AS STATED
ABOVE WE WILL PROBABLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY. BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF
I-80.

QPF: WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF THAT LAST FEW SHIFTS...BEING STINGY
WITH QPF. MOST MODELS BARELY BRING .01" INTO THE FCST AREA. LIKE THE
PAST FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT MEASURE.

SUN: CLEARING AS THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. DIMINISHING WINDS BUT
VERY COOL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF HWY 281. TEMPS ABOUT 7F
BELOW NORMAL.

MON: WE ARE PROBABLY NOT WARM ENOUGH! BACK TO THE WARM SECTOR AND
IT WILL BE BEAUTIFUL. ANOTHER GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE. FOR THE
INCREDIBLE MODEL PERSISTENCE/CONSISTENCY ON 850 MB TEMPS...I
CANNOT FATHOM WHY THE MODELS ARE SO COOL. NEARLY ALL OF THE VERY
WARM DAYS WE'VE HAD THIS MONTH...WE AND THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
WARM ENOUGH UNTIL THE ACTUAL DAY ARRIVES. THE FCST WAS POPULATED
WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED NAM 2M TEMPS AND THEN NUDGED HIGHER E OF
HWY 183. THAT PUTS MOST OF THE FCST AREA IN THE 70-75F RANGE...
BUT I AM CONVINCED WE NEED TO GO HIGHER. I THINK REALITY WILL END
UP 74-83.

MON NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE /FROPA/. CANT RULE OUT SOME
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR...BUT DONT COUNT ON IT. ANOTHER DRY
FROPA FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUE: MUCH COOLER. BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

WED-FRI: DRY WITH A NICE TEMP RECOVERY. BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
60S FOR ALL OR PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT COULD BE VERY
CONSERVATIVE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FIRST LEE CYCLOGENESIS EVENT
DEVELOPS FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST STARTING AT 02Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
ALSO IMPACT GRI THROUGH SUNRISE.

OCCASIONAL HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...NEAR 16000FT AGL...WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT GRI THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. INCOMING STRATUS WILL
THEN PROVIDE A CEILING NEAR 2500FT AGL STARTING AROUND 02Z...WITH
THIS CEILING EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN HEIGHT TO AROUND 1000FT AGL
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW BEING REALIZED AT GRI AFTER 00Z...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED AT GRI
IS TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION INTO THE TAF. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNRISE...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE 13-17Z...AND THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH BY
17Z. ONCE ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH...THE SURFACE WIND WILL
BECOME QUITE STRONG...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 23KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 32KTS. AN AXIS OF STRONG WIND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT GRI THROUGH
SUNRISE...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT GRI THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
710 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
710 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GENEVA TO RED CLOUD NEBRASKA...TO
PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS...DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASING
WINDS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS
COULD REACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH...ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF AT LEAST 30 MPH POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)