Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

AS WAS QUITE WELL-ANTICIPATED...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE AT TIMES...HAVE BEEN ONGOING WITHIN MAINLY THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY
SLOWLY BUT SURELY EXPANDING MORE-SO INTO THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE-CRITERIA REPORTS HAVE BEEN RATHER FEW SO
FAR...IN PART OWING TO A "MESS" OF STORM SCALE
MERGERS/INTERACTIONS DISRUPTING INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM MAINTAINING
OR REACHING PEAK POTENTIAL INTENSITY...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL NONETHELESS PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL 30 COUNTIES THROUGH 10
PM...BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA IS ALREADY BEHIND THE MAIN...BACK
EDGE OF STORMS AND THE NORTHERN CWA APPEARS TO BE VERY WORKED OVER
BY COOLER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...SO WILL PROBABLY START TRIMMING
AWAY SOME OF THESE COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. RAINFALL-WISE...WE ARE NOT AWARE OF ANY FLOODING ISSUES
BEYOND THE LIKELY BRIEF URBAN/STREET FLOODING TAKING PLACE IN
VARIOUS LOCATIONS...AND RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE
OVERESTIMATING REALITY BY AROUND ONE-THIRD BASED ON LIMITED
GROUND TRUTH. NONETHELESS...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA HAS ALREADY
SEEN OR WILL EVENTUALLY SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ROUGHLY I-80 AND THE KS STATE
LINE.

TURNING TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AS OF 20Z/3PM...THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOCAL AREA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EVIDENT AT THE 700MB LEVEL HAS BEEN FEEDING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEB/NORTHWEST KS ALL DAY...WHICH LED TO AT LEAST A
SLIGHTLY-EARLIER ONSET OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION...BUT ALSO LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MUCH OF AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN CWA FROM REALIZING A MORE EXTENSIVE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. AT THE SURFACE...IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT AN EXTENSIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3 OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD POOL
FROM THE WIDESPREAD ONGOING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IS STILL IN QUESTION...ITS
STARTING TO LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKE MUCH OF THE NEB CWA IS SEEING
A SLOWLY-WANING SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE NOTABLE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A POTENTIAL ORGANIZED WIND THREAT MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 6 ALONG THE APPARENT SQUALL LINE THAT APPEARS TO BE
ORGANIZING ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS WILL
BE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE...WHERE MUCH OF OUR KS ZONES ARE
CURRENTLY REALIZING 1000-2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE
PRESENCE OF GENERALLY 30-45KT OF 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
WOULD ALSO BE THE PART OF THE CWA STILL FAVORED FOR A POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...WHETHER IT BE WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS
THAT CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FOR AWHILE...OR WITH POSSIBLE
NOTCHES/BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE BACK-END TRAILING SQUALL LINE.
JUST CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE THIS THREAT GIVEN AROUND 20KT OF
LOW-LEVEL 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE AREA.

AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING...SEE
LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE VARIOUS
SHORT TERM MODELS...NAMELY THE 19Z HRRR. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY
AT-MOST MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS AND DEPART THE NORTHERN CWA...WHILE A HIGHER
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES EITHER FROM
A CONTINUATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION...OR OTHER AT LEAST SEMI-
DISCRETE STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM JUST WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. ASSUMING THAT ANY CONVECTION JUST NOW MOVING
INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEB DOES NOT SURVIVE ALL THE WAY INTO OUR
AREA...AREAS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LINES/CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION SHOULD ESSENTIALLY BE DONE WITH ALL CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE...EVEN MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA
SHOULD SEE THE MAIN COVERAGE OF STORMS DEPART TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY DURING THE 8PM-10PM TIME FRAME. JUST IN CASE
SOME STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ALONG/NEAR THE
NORTHWARD INTERFACE OF THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BASED NEAR 850MB...LINGERED SOME SMALLER
POPS IN FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES ALL THE WAY THROUGH 09Z...BUT
THIS MIGHT BE PLENTY GENEROUS. OTHERWISE...THE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING PREVAILING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ONCE
THE WIND FIELD RECOVERS FROM CONVECTIVE-EFFECTS. NUDGED DOWN LOW
TEMPS SLIGHTLY...TONIGHT...RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID
60S FAR SOUTHEAST.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE MONDAY DAYTIME HOURS...THIS IS STILL ONE OF
THE ONLY FORECAST PERIODS TO STILL FEATURE NO MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
THE NEXT ONE THAT TAKES AIM ON THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT
COULD STILL BE A CLOSE CALL AROUND SUNRISE OR SHORTLY
AFTER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE FOCUSED AT LEAST 1-2
COUNTIES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA MORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
DURING THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT STEADY 10-15 MPH NORTHWEST
BREEZES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ASSUMING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS...AIMING FROM LOW-MID 80S NEB ZONES
AND MID-UPPER 80S KS ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

ALOFT: HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING HIGHS CONT TO DOMINATE THE HEMISPHERE
OVER THE BERING SEA AND FAR ERN CANADA. THE STAGNANT LONGWAVE
PATTERN BETWEEN OVER THE USA IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES THAT HAVE PUT
US BACK INTO THE PATH OF MORE ACTIVE WX. SPECIFICALLY...THE NEWLY
DEVELOPED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHTS AT OR
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WRN/CNTRL USA.

THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF EC/GFS/GEM/UKMET ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THRU TUE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF. THE NEXT RIDGE ARRIVES WED FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW-
AMPLITUDE TROF WED NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER AK WILL BE FORCED SE AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY MID-WEEK
AND THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING WILL SLOW IT DOWN WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING HERE. THAT MEANS A COOL DOWN AND PROBABLY THE
COOLEST TEMPS WE/VE SEEN SINCE MID MAY.

SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THRU TODAY WILL
LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL BE NEAR THE KS-NEB BORDER BY DAWN
TUE. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER CO...WITH A DRYLINE
INTENSIFYING AND MIXING INTO WRN KS...CREATING A TRIPLE POINT WITH
THE FRONT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK E ALONG THE KS-NEB BORDER WED NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO THE REGION WED...WITH THE
FRONT SAGGING TO THE KS-OK BORDER. BY THU AN OCCLUDING LOW WILL BE
OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A WARM FRONT FCST TO LIFT THRU THE FCST
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ITS COLD FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
THERE IS THEN SOME INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST S AND E
OF THE FCST AREA.

HAZARDS: WE ARE LOOKING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THU-SAT. DID NOT LOOK
AT POTENTIAL INTENSITY DUE TO ON-GOING EVENT AND TUE POTENTIAL.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE: PLEASE CONT TO FOLLOW SPC SEVERE WX OUTLOOKS AND THE HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK /HWO/ AND THIS PRODUCT FOR WHAT IS LOOKING LIKE A SERIOUS
SEVERE WX THREAT. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE UPGRADED IN LATER SPC
OUTLOOKS.

LLJ-INDUCED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED COULD
INITIATE STORMS DURING THE MORNING HRS N OF THE WARM FRONT. IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THRU THE DAY AS
LLJ INTENSIFIES...PROBABLY FORMING AN MCS. THESE STORMS WILL BE
FORMING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EML. THE STORMS WILL REINFORCE THE
WARM FRONT AND BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD
ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT. WHILE SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MCS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS.

USE OUR HIGH TEMPS OVER S-CNTRL NEB WITH CAUTION. THEY WILL DEPEND
ON CLOUDS/RAIN. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 77-84F ALONG AND N OF I-80...BUT
MUCH OF THIS AREA COULD END UP JAMMED IN THE LOW-MID 70S. ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...HIGHS WERE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES. STOCKTON
AND PLAINVILLE WILL BE CLOSE TO 100F. WINDY S OF THE WARM FRONT!

09Z SREF CONTS TO LOOK THREATENING WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG.
FALLING PRES TO THE W WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS BACKED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CURVATURE IN FCST HODOGRAPHS.

TUE NIGHT: ON-GOING TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW INTO AN
MCS THAT PROPAGATES E WITH THE SFC LOW. SO TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END
HERE.

WED: BREEZY IN COOL AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE A DECENT CU FIELD
DEVELOP OVER S-CNTRL NEB...MOST VIGOROUS N OF I-80. CANT RULE OUT A
SHWR OR A COUPLE SPRINKLES N OF HWY 92.

THU: COULD SEE A COULD SHWRS/TSTMS WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CAP.

FRI: SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SAT: TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL. SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM POTENTIAL CONTS.

SUN: PROBABLY DRY UNDER HIGH PRES. CONTINUED COMFORTABLY COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014

THE PARAMOUNT AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD INVOLVES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE
20Z-01Z TIME FRAME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME FOR STORMS...HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO
GROUP...BUT HAVE EXTENDED A VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION A
FEW MORE HOURS THROUGH 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY THAT MIGHT
LINGER TO AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF A LINE
OF SEVERE STORMS HAPPENS TO DIRECTLY AFFECT KGRI...WINDS COULD
RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS AROUND 50KT FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST...BUT FOR WILL INDICATE A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY BREEZE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT
CEILING/VISIBILITY AS VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS INDICATED IN THE THUNDERSTORM TEMP GROUP. AT LEAST
ONE SET OF MODELS/GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT AN MVFR CEILING COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE NOT FULLY BOUGHT INTO THIS AND INSTEAD HAVE HINTED WITH A
SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD HEIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

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