Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1234 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE AREA CONTINUING TO BE
INFLUENCED BY ZONAL FLOW...AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS AND BROAD TROUGHING IS IN PLACE NEAR/NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER...THOUGH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING ITS WAY FURTHER
INLAND FROM THE PAC NW COAST. AS WAS SHOWN BY MODELS...CONVECTION
DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS INCREASED LIFT VIA WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER LLJ. EARLY ON THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF MITCHELL COUNTY WAS CLIPPED BY THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT SINCE THEN HAS REMAINED OVER ERN KS. THERE IS A
COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KS...AND THE HRRR/RAP HINT AT
SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING SOME LOW/MID LEVEL
STRATUS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON HOW EXPANSIVE IT WILL END UP BEING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA IS
SET UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...AND
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHERLY...WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS ARE MORE
MILD THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.

THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
TEMPERATURES...AS TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST OVER THE
NEXT 7. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THAT ABOVE MENTION PAC
NW DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. WHILE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT
/THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO/...THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO CONTINUE
THE ADVECTION OF WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT CREEPS IN FROM THE WEST. BY SUNRISE THURS...MODEL
TIMING ISNT BAD...SHOWING THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NWRN CORNER
OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AS SOME MODELS
SHOWING POOLING OF MOISTURE/HIGHER DPTS IN THE SOMEWHAT USUAL
PLACES FOR OUR CWA...ROUGHLY THE NERN THIRD OR SO...WITH DPTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. THOSE HIGHER DPTS MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH IN
THOSE AREAS...AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 90. FURTHER
SW...THINKING THAT TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH
DPTS IN THE LOWER 60S. NOT BUYING INTO THE RAP WHICH IS SHOWING
LOW/MID 50S BY MID AFTERNOON DOWN THERE...WITH TEMPS THEN CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 100S. SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO WATCH THOUGH. AS
WE GET INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN
MILD IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM ON THURSDAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

MOST IF NOT ALL OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY...DESPITE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH AS NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING MAINLY THURSDAY
EVENING CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...WHICH WILL NUDGE SOUTH OVER TIME...AND IN TURN PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH.

INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY WANES AND THERE WILL BE LESS OF A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND TOOK OUT THUNDER BY
LATE EVENING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN AS THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT HELPED PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH...MAKES A FAIRLY QUICK
RETREAT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BRING IN SOME
COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANYWHERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT IT WOULD BE A TOUGH CALL TO NAIL ANYTHING DOWN
RIGHT NOW.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I WENT WITH CONSRAW FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND BCCONSRAW FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY COOLER. IN FACT...FRIDAY SHOULD
FEEL RATHER FALL-LIKE. OTHER NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT
CAUGHT ON LIKE THE BCCONSRAW HAS...BUT I STRONGLY SUSPECT THAT
THEY WILL SOON...CONSIDERING THE TRACK RECORD OF THIS SOLUTION THE
DAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS
AREA OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY ERODING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ONCE THE STRATUS DOES BURN OFF...WITH OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KTS OR SO. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MARGINAL WIND SHEAR AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES...AND INCLUDED THIS MENTION AT BOTH SITES AS WELL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
04/15Z-04/18Z...AND INDICATED A WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
041745-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
100 DEGREES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
POTENTIALLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 103 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MILES AN HOUR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO DETERMINE RISK OF STRONG OR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

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