Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE FACT WE ARE
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY/TONIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR TIMING...LOCATION...AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. THE
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH IS SITUATED OVER THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER...IS JUST MOSEYING ALONG TODAY AND HAS CAUSED SOME CONCERN
FOR DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS
THE CAP BEGINS TO BREAK. SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE HAS US CAPPED
UNTIL ABOUT 22-23Z. AT THIS TIME WE SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING STAGES
FOR INITIATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AMPLE INSTABILITY OF
ABOUT 2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE...DUE TO A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE COULD BE AS HIGH AS
4000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM WILL BE AROUND 30 KNOTS...AND THIS IS
NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP INDICATED HELICITY VALUES NEAR 400 M2/S2
WOULD BE IN PLACE AROUND 23Z FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE
VALUES WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THESE LOW
LEVEL HELICITY VALUES COUPLED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A
THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY FOR OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES. WITH THAT BEING...WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
TODAY/TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES...BUT THE ENTIRE CWA DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. I DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO KICK INTO GEAR
AROUND 6 OR 7 PM...IF NOT SOONER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VARIOUS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND IN TO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALONG WITH FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS. WILL KEEP THIS FAIRLY SHORT DUE TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STARTING OUT SATURDAY EVENING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THERE SHOULD
BE A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A CLOSED LOW
SITUATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MONTANA...AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NW DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE A LITTLE EAST
AS WELL WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO MISSISSIPPI.
THE BETTER FORCING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE TO THE WEST AND
NORTH OF OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SDAK AT 00Z AND THEN THIS WILL PUSH INTO OUR
AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. HAS NOT TAKEN A WHOLE LOT TO SET OFF
CONVECTION THE PAST WEEK AND WHILE THE SET UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT IS
NOT AS GOOD AS TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY STILL NEED SOME LOW POPS
GIVEN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT AND ANTICIPATED LOW LEVEL JET.
PREVIOUS SHIFT AFD NOTED SOME HEAT BURST POTENTIAL WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AND THIS SCENARIO STILL IN PLACE.

WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS APPEARS TO OVERDEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX ALTHOUGH
DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW IN UPPER LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK ACTIVE AS YET ANOTHER HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN EAST/WEST STATIONARY FRONT WILL HANG OUT
OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN THE CLASSIC NIGHTTIME RAIN EVENTS. BY
WEDNESDAY THE EXTENDED MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE
TROUGH EAST THROUGH THE CWA WITH RIDING THEN MOVING IN TO QUIET
THINGS DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE
VALID PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER
THIS EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION STARTS...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED WITH ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO THE TERMINAL SITES ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. WE DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN AROUND
01Z- 02Z. CHANCES ARE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AGAIN. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WIND SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY IN THE TAF AS WELL...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE
LLWS OF ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT ABOUT 1000 FT...TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS AT
2500 FT. THE WINDOW FOR LLWS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 07Z TO ABOUT
12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENTIRELY HIGH FOR THIS TO BE REALIZED BECAUSE
ONE SET OF GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING NO LLWS AT ALL. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF LLWS TO INTRODUCE THIS
INTO THE TAF.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...GUERRERO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
830 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
231200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
830 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL
BE WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED INTO TONIGHT. PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
815 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

KSZ007-019-230200-
MITCHELL KS-JEWELL KS-
815 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN
JEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 815 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
VICTOR...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...CAWKER CITY...GLEN ELDER...HUNTER AND VICTOR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 3963 9843 3963 9808 3922 9815 3922 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 180DEG 20KT 3931 9827

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S STOCKTON            39.36N 99.27W
08/22/2014  M51 MPH          ROOKS              KS   AWOS

&&

HALBLAUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
839 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

NEZ047-230200-
HOWARD NE-
839 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

AT 839 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ST. PAUL...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF GRAND
ISLAND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. PAUL...ELBA AND CUSHING.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4120 9828 4119 9829 4113 9849 4128 9871
      4138 9837
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 145DEG 11KT 4120 9844

HALBLAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
849 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 E PHILLIPSBURG        39.75N 99.21W
08/22/2014  E55 MPH          PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

&&

DOXEY

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