Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS. THAT SAID...WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WHICH
SEVERAL MODELS ARE PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF 19Z HRRR/12Z WRF ARE CORRECT...WE
SHOULD SEE AN AREA FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TRACK ACROSS THE
HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT KEPT
PRECIPITATION IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO MODEL PERFORMANCE THE
LAST FEW DAYS. THAT SAID...IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AND
REACH THE LOCAL AREA...COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
REACH THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND HIGHLIGHTED THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO.

WHILE MODELS KEEP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
OVERNIGHT...THINK THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH MORNING FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA. WITH SREF
PROBS ONCE AGAIN INDICATING GREATER THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
FOG FORMATION ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST...INCREASED WORDING TO MENTION
AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS DEPICTED IN MODEL DATA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE LIKELY COMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THEIR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TREND OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCES OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR FEATURES. THE GENERAL
PATTERN FEATURES ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FIRST FEW DAYS THEN A RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD RESULTING IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA.

A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING
AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STORMS SO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE CONTINUED IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA MID WEEK...SO NO STORMS MENTIONED IN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW AND PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. THEREFORE...AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME...LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS MAY BE INTRODUCED ON THOSE
DAYS.

AS THE AREA GETS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN AND
ARE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...THEY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...BUT CEILINGS COULD BE TRICKY. LIGHT WIND COULD PROMPT
MORE MVFR VISIBILITY AND MORE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN

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