Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURFACE LOW VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAVE SEEN A COUPLE OF THESE CELLS RAPIDLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND WITH UP TO 1000 JOULES OF MU CAPE TO WORK
WITH...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN
SPOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THIS LOW WEAKENS AND
TRACKS SOUTH. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO BLEND OF RAP/NAM GUIDANCE
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY DISSIPATE DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS AND
INSTABILITY WANES. OTHERWISE...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO SHORT
TERM FORECAST AS ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE EVENING IS EXPECTED ONCE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR THOSE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
RECEIVE ANY.

FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY NICE DAY...POSSIBLY EVEN A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOONS BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW.
OTHERWISE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BY MID
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...KEPT
FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE GIVING SOME HINTS OF
PRECIPITATION BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND SOME OF THE MODELS PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY QPF. DESPITE THIS...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND THE STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS TO PICK
WHEN THERE WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BREAKS
DOWN THE RIDGE. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.

THURSDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT AND REMAIN A
LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VCSH OR EVEN VCTS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THEREAFTER...
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
012000-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
246 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI/JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
327 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NEZ048-049-312115-
POLK NE-MERRICK NE-
327 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MERRICK AND
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GENOA...OR 38 MILES NORTH OF YORK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
MERRICK AND NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4127 9740 4133 9770 4139 9770 4140 9768
      4140 9760 4134 9760 4134 9757 4137 9751
      4136 9747 4139 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 276DEG 10KT 4143 9766

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NEZ049-312130-
POLK NE-
401 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MERRICK AND POLK
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 401 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SILVER CREEK TO NEAR
CLARKS...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY AND POLK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4105 9738 4105 9780 4116 9780 4131 9765
      4131 9760 4134 9760 4134 9757 4136 9752
      4136 9747 4138 9737 4124 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 261DEG 8KT 4135 9755 4121 9775

FAY

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